BxWeatherwatcher Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 2 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: anybody else see a backstep in the last few frames.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-vis-long.html you are..interaction is clearly starting my friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 1 minute ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: 4 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: anybody else see a backstep in the last few frames.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-vis-long.html you are..interaction is clearly starting my friend. Also NHC has backed the track a bit more to the west now. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 5 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: Seems like its starting its more northward movement now as the cloud deck is also moving northwest also,the tugging begins.some convection is also trying to rap around the coc so im still not convinced of east and out solution just yet. You are right but how far WEST will it be able to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 33 minutes ago, BxWeatherwatcher said: 36 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: anybody else see a backstep in the last few frames.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-vis-long.html you are..interaction is clearly starting my friend. current 500mb analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxWeatherwatcher Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 3 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said: current 500mb analysis Very interesting,that 500 mb vortex is going to pull this thing right back to the coast at a more northern latitude ,depending on how far west it can get n.y.c and coastal new england could get it gd. Also It's really starting to blossom a.t.m on current water vapor loops.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 Hope so...we need the rain in SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 The cruise ship Anthem of The Seas sailing from NYC to Bermuda tried to beat Hermine on a northerly course. Didn't work out so well.... Robert McHugh @Robert_J_McHugh 4h4 hours ago Anthem of the seas recording gusts of 90 knot winds. Good times on #croastascruising2wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 This afternoon, the wave size increased on the Long Island Sound. There was a refreshing breeze and brilliant sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted September 4, 2016 Share Posted September 4, 2016 "Just when I thought she was out... she pulled me back in'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 This sure is confusing, now im hearing word its moving back north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, marsplex said: This sure is confusing, now im hearing word its moving back north and west Retrograde it was always modeled to do so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Not that I am expecting it, but if Hermine winds up moving back further west, I think I will scream. I am so done with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mophstymeo01 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Not that I am expecting it, but if Hermine winds up moving back further west, I think I will scream. I am so done with this storm. You and half the eastern seaboard.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 8PM Advisory still shows a ENE heading but it's crawling now at 5MPH... Almost certain it was backing in by looking at the radar and satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Looking at the latest NHC water vapor (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/h5-loop-wv.html) and noticed the intensity of the system that just blew up over coast to coast over central Florida. Is this the result of the moisture left behind by Hermine? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Lot of new convection blowing up north and west of the center. Look markedly improved over a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 0z NAM has Hermine backing into eastern LI at 33hr If that is correct and sits just south between Montauk and Cape Cod the area will see TS winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 It's been over since this morning and it's still over, from the perspective of major rain and wind impacts. The storm is 325 miles SE of Montauk and 375 miles east of OC MD - even with 100+ miles of NW motion it'll still be 250+ miles from NJ and 150 miles from Eastern LI and starting to weaken. Surprised they haven't dropped the TS warnings everywhere, except maybe eastern LI and SE New England. And even the coastal flooding and beach erosion impacts are now forecast to be significantly less for everyone, especially in DE/NJ (and they were never forecast to be anywhere near what Sandy was), as the storm is just too far east and will not retrograde close enough to be an issue. I completely understand being cautious through late Saturday, since the probability of major impacts across a large area was reasonably high and there wouldn't have been much time to respond if things got even worse than expected, but the NHC/NWS ought to back off now, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 1 hour ago, allgame830 said: 8PM Advisory still shows a ENE heading but it's crawling now at 5MPH... Almost certain it was backing in by looking at the radar and satellite. still no stall...outer cloud bands into Bermuda...'nuff said on this turd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 8 minutes ago, allgame830 said: 0z NAM has Hermine backing into eastern LI at 33hr I wonder how much of that is purely Hermine at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mophstymeo01 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 0z NAM has Hermine backing into eastern LI at 33hrI was about to post the same thing. The NAM is obsessed with this idea of swinging Hermine back in our direction.Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Just now, mophstymeo01 said: I was about to post the same thing. The NAM is obsessed with this idea of swinging Hermine back in our direction. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Hey you never know... The GGEM and RGEM last run had generally the same idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 TS Warnings tii' christmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 silly....this thing is still moving east and is at 68 degrees longitude...the amount of time it would have to spend moving west to affect anyone would be measured in days.....and that's if it stopped moving east right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: silly....this thing is still moving east and is at 68 degrees longitude...the amount of time it would have to spend moving west to affect anyone would be measured in days.....and that's if it stopped moving east right now... Maybe Hermine will be around for the remainder of the Hurricane season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 3 minutes ago, mophstymeo01 said: I was about to post the same thing. The NAM is obsessed with this idea of swinging Hermine back in our direction. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk The hi res NAM shows something similar..:and if you look at both the sim radar of the NAM and the 10m wind product of the hi res you see a system that is deteriorating as it approaches...wonder if it's a capture of some of the remnant mid level circ of Hermine captured and brought west with a little initial juice up from the gulf stream that dies out as it moves off that fuel...and also other levels of asymetric Hermine still pulling off to the east denying that piece of what might otherwise be a more potent regenerating hybrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 1 minute ago, NJHurricane said: The hi res NAM shows something similar..:and if you look at both the sim radar of the NAM and the 10m wind product of the hi res you see a system that is deteriorating as it approaches...wonder if it's a capture of some of the remnant mid level circ of Hermine captured and brought west with a little initial juice up from the gulf stream that dies out as it moves off that fuel...and also other levels of asymetric Hermine still pulling off to the east denying that piece of what might otherwise be a more potent regenerating hybrid Then it moves SW towards Southern NJ... So strange.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mophstymeo01 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 Then it moves SW towards Southern NJ... So strange....It's the NAM. What else is new?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Then it moves SW towards Southern NJ... So strange.... All the while losing steam...appears on wxbell sim radar impressive as it approaches eastern LI then jogs SW as it rapidly weakens for those rooting for some last minute excitement the NAM's are like winning the last game of the season at the same time you are finding out you are eliminated from the playoffs anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted September 5, 2016 Share Posted September 5, 2016 5 minutes ago, NJHurricane said: All the while losing steam...appears on wxbell sim radar impressive as it approaches eastern LI then jogs SW as it rapidly weakens for those rooting for some last minute excitement the NAM's are like winning the last game of the season at the same time you are finding out you are eliminated from the playoffs anyway What does the wind field look like as it approaches LI and moves SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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