Potential Hermine Impacts

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Shorter term 12z RGEM drier and further south than 6z

12z

 

6z

 

 

 

 

 

Its fine for the area. Everything is caving to the rgem.

[MJO812]

Gfs now brings the low under the area

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

GFS = further west at 35 hours.  The trend continues. 

Combined with nowcasting trends, this will be a hit.  500mb is lookin good.

Coastal flooding could be worse in new england, as they stay with the easterly component whole time.  Eastern Long Island too.

[weatherdude888]

A few weeks ago the GFS was showing a phantom storm near the east coast in the 9/11 range.......at this rate, it may well be Hermine........what a wonky storm......

[NycStormChaser]

If the Euro comes west, I wonder if they will re issue the tropical storm warnings. 

[allgame830]

Just now, seanick said:

If the Euro comes west, I wonder if they will re issue the tropical storm warnings. 

I was just about to post the same thing... Seems like a chance 

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Its fine for the area. Everything is caving to the rgem.

The GFS is your model if you like heavy rain over the East End.

 

 

 

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

ummm guys..

 

 

the buoy just east of it is gusting to 60MPH.   So we have both 69 and 60 MPH winds , just from 2 obs in the area.

and 20 foot seas. 

[allgame830]

5 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

ummm guys..

 

 

the buoy just east of it is gusting to 60MPH.   So we have both 69 and 60 MPH winds , just from 2 obs in the area.

and 20 foot seas. 

Where exactly is this??

[USCG RS]

ummm guys..

 



 

the buoy just east of it is gusting to 60MPH.   So we have both 69 and 60 MPH winds , just from 2 obs in the area.

and 20 foot seas. 

That ship is currently around 68w. It's well East of the area.

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[Sophisticated Skeptic]

2 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Where exactly is this??

 

Far from the center, so one could only imagine -

 

[eyewall]

In it's current position that looks more like a blowout tide scenario for south facing beaches. I am sure the surfers are loving the swell.

[USCG RS]

Where exactly is this??

http://www.sailwx.info/shiptrack/shipposition.phtml?call=PBIG

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[Sophisticated Skeptic]

this buoy must be broken.  (it's pressure)

 

[psv88]

Winds really kicking up out here. Gusts to 30 now

[bluewave]

Top ten surfing day at the famous Lincoln Blvd surfing beach in LB. 

http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/lincoln-long-island_4269/

 

[SnoSki14]

Everyone does realize this thing will continue to weaken despite it getting further west right? The impacts will be minimal at best. 

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Everyone does realize this thing will continue to weaken despite it getting further west right? The impacts will be minimal at best. 

I do. Others think we need a new tropical storm warning

[RU848789]

32 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

wonder if any heated discussions between NHC and NWS are going on at the moment.  Like with Sandy.

 

24 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

GFS = further west at 35 hours.  The trend continues. 

Combined with nowcasting trends, this will be a hit.  500mb is lookin good.

Coastal flooding could be worse in new england, as they stay with the easterly component whole time.  Eastern Long Island too.

 

You're wishcasting again.  Please stop.  Even if the storm comes further west than the experts at the NHC are forecasting, it still won't come closer than 150 miles to NYC and it'll be a minimal post-tropical storm with 40-45 mph winds by then, so there is maybe a 0.1% chance they'll reissue TS warnings for NYC or NJ.  Yes, they'll keep them up for Suffolk and SE New England, because that make sense.  

And there are no issues between the NHC and Upton right now.  The NWS is only keeping the TS Warnings up for Suffolk for continuity reasons, as they don't actually expect TS force gusts at this time over land after tonight (there could be a few for eastern Suffolk tonight). It's still over, unless you think 1/2" of rain and 35-40 mph gusts for Montauk are a big deal.  As they said below, even if the most aggressive models verify, TS force winds would be possible for eastern Suffolk/eastern CT.  

Hermine will continue to weaken through Wed and likely be at least
a 1000mb low S-SE of Montauk by 12z Wed. The storm will be over
cooler water by this time and will aide in the rapid
weakening of the system and also shrink the tropical storm force
wind field. Not expecting tropical storm force winds on land
attm...but will be keeping current headlines as is due to the
continued uncertainty with this system. If the storm retrogrades
even further west than forecast and is stronger than model
guidance indicates then tropical storm force winds would be
possible...mainly portions of Suffolk County and portions of
coastal CT. Storm surge and dangerous rip currents will likely
continue to be the main impacts from this system on Wed.

 

[psv88]

Pretty big gusts now. Walk outside and just hear the wind pretty loudly. I'd guess maybe gusts to 35, sustained around 17/18

[Pamela]

35 minutes ago, weatherdude888 said:

A few weeks ago the GFS was showing a phantom storm near the east coast in the 9/11 range.......at this rate, it may well be Hermine........what a wonky storm......

With the GFS; its 168 hour progs often verify more precisely than its 72 hour ones...

As for the new model consensus; yes, not unexpected as the models are not that bad as an event is actually unfolding...

One thing to look for is a fractional potential shift north and northeast with the rain shield; as the area of greatest vertical motion (the place where the bulk of the precipitation is created) as interpreted by the hydrostatic equations of state (the numerical equations upon which the models run)  manifests a slight southern bias when a storm is out over the water.

This bias was more pronounced in older models; but I don't think it has been entirely eradicated. 

This is why the so-called "north trend" with winter storms invariably comes to pass as the actual storm approaches.

It is fairly reliable with mid latitude cyclones; with tropical systems...I'm not quite as certain.

 

[Sportybx]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Everyone does realize this thing will continue to weaken despite it getting further west right? The impacts will be minimal at best. 

If it was putting out 14 ft waves last night and now 20 ft waves after the sharp right turn . how do we know for sure it will get weaker ? This thing has been floating around for 3 weeks and no one can honestly say they have any idea what its going to do . if you look at the NASA pics it almost looks like its forming 2 different eyes . weirdest storm I ever seen 

[allgame830]

5 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Pretty big gusts now. Walk outside and just hear the wind pretty loudly. I'd guess maybe gusts to 35, sustained around 17/18

Sorry where are you located? On phone can't see.

[bluewave]

Sun coming back out here in SW Suffolk s drier air is working down form New England.

 

 

[mophstymeo01]

Sun coming out in western Nassau. Today feels like a Saturday redux -- albeit a bit cooler outside.


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[Pamela]

24 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

 

You're wishcasting again.  Please stop.  Even if the storm comes further west than the experts at the NHC are forecasting, it still won't come closer than 150 miles to NYC and it'll be a minimal post-tropical storm with 40-45 mph winds by then, so there is maybe a 0.1% chance they'll reissue TS warnings for NYC or NJ.  Yes, they'll keep them up for Suffolk and SE New England, because that make sense.  

And there are no issues between the NHC and Upton right now.  The NWS is only keeping the TS Warnings up for Suffolk for continuity reasons, as they don't actually expect TS force gusts at this time over land after tonight (there could be a few for eastern Suffolk tonight). It's still over, unless you think 1/2" of rain and 35-40 mph gusts for Montauk are a big deal.  As they said below, even if the most aggressive models verify, TS force winds would be possible for eastern Suffolk/eastern CT.  

Hermine will continue to weaken through Wed and likely be at least
a 1000mb low S-SE of Montauk by 12z Wed. The storm will be over
cooler water by this time and will aide in the rapid
weakening of the system and also shrink the tropical storm force
wind field. Not expecting tropical storm force winds on land
attm...but will be keeping current headlines as is due to the
continued uncertainty with this system. If the storm retrogrades
even further west than forecast and is stronger than model
guidance indicates then tropical storm force winds would be
possible...mainly portions of Suffolk County and portions of
coastal CT. Storm surge and dangerous rip currents will likely
continue to be the main impacts from this system on Wed.

 

To the best of my knowledge (and they may have changed this)...local NWS offices such as Upton and Mount Holly are severely constrained from commenting or attempting to issue forecasts on a tropical storm or full blown hurricane.  Specific rules are in place that the NHC and only the NHC may issue forecasts in that realm; and local offices are very much obliged to respect and follow to the letter whatever comes out of NHC.

Thus the only thing Upton or Mt Holly can say is their local evaluation of the effects NHC guidance has provided them with.

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Sorry where are you located? On phone can't see.

NW Suffolk County

[Sophisticated Skeptic]

2 minutes ago, Pamela said:

 

Thus the only thing Upton or Mt Holly can say is their local evaluation of the effects NHS guidance has provided them with.

That should be changed immediately.  same thing occurred with Sandy.

[wthrmn654]

16 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

 

 

You're wishcasting again.  Please stop.  Even if the storm comes further west than the experts at the NHC are forecasting, it still won't come closer than 150 miles to NYC and it'll be a minimal post-tropical storm with 40-45 mph winds by then, so there is maybe a 0.1% chance they'll reissue TS warnings for NYC or NJ.  Yes, they'll keep them up for Suffolk and SE New England, because that make sense.  

And there are no issues between the NHC and Upton right now.  The NWS is only keeping the TS Warnings up for Suffolk for continuity reasons, as they don't actually expect TS force gusts at this time over land after tonight (there could be a few for eastern Suffolk tonight). It's still over, unless you think 1/2" of rain and 35-40 mph gusts for Montauk are a big deal.  As they said below, even if the most aggressive models verify, TS force winds would be possible for eastern Suffolk/eastern CT.  

Hermine will continue to weaken through Wed and likely be at least
a 1000mb low S-SE of Montauk by 12z Wed. The storm will be over
cooler water by this time and will aide in the rapid
weakening of the system and also shrink the tropical storm force
wind field. Not expecting tropical storm force winds on land
attm...but will be keeping current headlines as is due to the
continued uncertainty with this system. If the storm retrogrades
even further west than forecast and is stronger than model
guidance indicates then tropical storm force winds would be
possible...mainly portions of Suffolk County and portions of
coastal CT. Storm surge and dangerous rip currents will likely
continue to be the main impacts from this system on Wed.

The initial intensity estimate remains 60 kt. Although Hermine is currently over rather warm waters, the system should be passing over cooler SSTs by early Tuesday and this should result in a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast is consistent with the trend depicted by the global models. These models, especially the ECMWF, suggest that the system will open up to a trough by the end of the forecast period and this is also reflected in the official forecast. The center is not particularly well defined, and using a mean center position from the multiple swirls leads to a motion estimate of 325/5 kt, which is rather uncertain. Hermine is in a weak steering environment. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should induce a continued northwestward motion at a slow forward speed during the next 24 hours or so. As this ridge breaks down by Tuesday night, the system should turn northward. Later in the forecast period, the mid-latitude westerlies should carry Hermine off to the east-northeast and northeast. The track forecast has been shifted west of the previous NHC track, but lies a little to the east of the multi-model consensus.

[Pamela]

8 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

That should be changed immediately.  same thing occurred with Sandy.

Perhaps when a system goes extra-tropical the regulations are no longer enforced...in other words, once it is out of NHC hands, local NWS offices can issue whatever forecast they want.

The reason the aforementioned regulations are in place is because a hurricane is such a potentially devastating entity that the amount of confusion and loss of life and property is only exacerbated when dozens of conflicting forecasts are promulgated.

By utilizing One Voice, the hope is that problems such as  that can be effectively diminished.