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Potential Hermine Impacts

Zelocita Weather

By Zelocita Weather,
in New York City Metro

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, e46and2 said:

do you lie in wait to correct people?  just enjoy the storm; or non-storm, depending on your perspective.  a 70 mph cyclone is still very impressive, especially when you consider the number of 35-50 mph style nor'easters we eagerly track in the fall.

Are you kidding me?  That would be a full time job around here.  I rarely correct minor errors like that one (my apologies to PSV as I probably I came off snarky), but I will always take the time to correct the Tropical Trolls around here, who cry wolf continuously, based on the most obscure model and their own wishcasting.  I think they may be even worse than the winter weather weenies.  I value accuracy and well-reasoned, critical thinking, which unfortunately are often in short supply around here.  Never said a 70 mph storm wasn't impressive - it is - it's just not going to have any major impacts on land.  

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USCG RS

USCG RS

Posted
Posted
Are you kidding me?  That would be a full time job around here.  I rarely correct minor errors like that one (my apologies to PSV as I probably I came off snarky), but I will always take the time to correct the Tropical Trolls around here, who cry wolf continuously, based on the most obscure model and their own wishcasting.  I think they may be even worse than the winter weather weenies.  I value accuracy and well-reasoned, critical thinking, which unfortunately are often in short supply around here.  Never said a 70 mph storm wasn't impressive - it is - it's just not going to have any major impacts on land.  

The best shot for a significant impact on land is obviously the Eastern end of Long Island and the Cape. She is finally making that turn and is heading back towards land. At the same time, she still has a shot at strengthening as she remains over the gulf current which is feeding warm water despite the up welling. Also, the h5 is becoming more conducive for Hermine to strengthen. Combine this with a core that's rather structurally in tact and this hybrid has a good shot at strengthening, albeit not much.

All that being said, Long island and the cape need to keep a close eye on this storm, especially if it begins accelerating towards the NW/WNW. The quicker she begins to move, the less of a chance she will have to deteriate.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N920A using Tapatalk

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Are you kidding me?  That would be a full time job around here.  I rarely correct minor errors like that one (my apologies to PSV as I probably I came off snarky), but I will always take the time to correct the Tropical Trolls around here, who cry wolf continuously, based on the most obscure model and their own wishcasting.  I think they may be even worse than the winter weather weenies.  I value accuracy and well-reasoned, critical thinking, which unfortunately are often in short supply around here.  Never said a 70 mph storm wasn't impressive - it is - it's just not going to have any major impacts on land.  

No worries, thanks for catching that mistake.

Winds fresh out here, gusting to around 30 at the local Suffolk County airports, FRG and ISP. Similar to a normal autumn day with CAA and a cool gusty breeze.

Sent the wife and kid to Adventureland so i could get some work done in peace and quiet.

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BombsAway1288

BombsAway1288

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

NAM is west again.  

Hopefully they aren't short-staffed today, seeing what's going on.    No need to wait any longer.

Wait any longer for what exactly? To repost tropical storm watches and warnings? It's not gonna happen. Give it up. You've been all over the place with this storm. It's over! (Away from the immediate shore of Suffolk and extreme south eastern New England)

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Wait any longer for what exactly? To repost tropical storm watches and warnings? It's not gonna happen. Give it up. You've been all over the place with this storm. It's over! (Away from the immediate shore of Suffolk and extreme south eastern New England)

Read my history, before posting nonsense. There is only 1 scenario mentioned.

at-least wind advisory criteria is what i'm talking about.   The quick weakening of Hermine will not happen, it already doesn't have a handle on whats currently going on...winds are exceeding the model forecasts by at-least 20 knots in most places.

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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

Read my history, before posting nonsense. There is only 1 scenario mentioned.

at-least wind advisory criteria is what i'm talking about.   The quick weakening of Hermine will not happen, it already doesn't have a handle on whats currently going on...winds are exceeding the model forecasts by at-least 20 knots in most places.

except they are not?

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rogue

rogue

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Wait any longer for what exactly? To repost tropical storm watches and warnings? It's not gonna happen. Give it up. You've been all over the place with this storm. It's over! (Away from the immediate shore of Suffolk and extreme south eastern New England)

Think you're being too certain on this being over (and I'm no drama artist or wishcaster). Don't think anyone is forecasting an epic event. But I also think this is far from a non event. It's quite rare to have a low of tropical origin sitting right in our backyard as almost all modeling now suggests will happen. I can't imagine with placement that close, that there won't be some tropical like squalls with heavy downpours and winds, dying system or not, and the long duration adds another element to it. Interesting stuff to follow because it's so rare in these parts. 

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BxEngine

BxEngine

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Bacon Strips said:

 

It's Labor Day, so who knows who's working.

Maybe gotta wait till the morning for the fix.

cheezburger time. 

This is the type of post i will delete. You made a claim that the models are under modeling the current winds by more than 20 knots. When questioned about the truth of that statement (seeing as how you provided zero data to go with that statement), you accuse the nhc of not having enough members working to somehow fix the models that are in your eyes way off.

 

Try this. Show your data. End of debate. 

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

This is the type of post i will delete. You made a claim that the models are under modeling the current winds by more than 20 knots. When questioned about the truth of that statement (seeing as how you provided zero data to go with that statement), you accuse the nhc of not having enough members working to somehow fix the models that are in your eyes way off.

 

Try this. Show your data. End of debate. 

 

Bx, i'm constantly looking at ship reports , buoy reports.  It's been ALL day long, the evidence is overwhelming.  'Perfect Storm' type surprises are already occurring in new england , and this is going to be the same type of storm where everybodys going to be like "omg...that wasn't expected".  that's all i'm saying.  I never just say stuff to say it.   I posted screenshots of some ship / buoy reports earlier, if u need more I can post more.

And I didn't specify anybody when bringing up Labor Day.  Everybody's probably got a skeleton crew today.  I'm just saying,  it's possible we'll have to wait till the morning to get things right.  If i'm wrong, i'll admit it.

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BxEngine

BxEngine

Posted
Posted
Just now, Bacon Strips said:

 

Bx, i'm constantly looking at ship reports , buoy reports.  It's been ALL day long, the evidence is overwhelming.  'Perfect Storm' type surprises are already occurring in new england , and this is going to be the same type of storm where everybodys going to be like "omg...that wasn't expected".  that's all i'm saying.  I never just say stuff to say it.   I posted screenshots of some ship / buoy reports earlier, if u need more I can post more.

And I didn't specify anybody when bringing up Labor Day.  Everybody's probably got a skeleton crew today.  I'm just saying,  it's possible we'll have to wait till the morning to get things right.  If i'm wrong, i'll admit it.

Post the ship reports along with the modeled 2m wind speeds for the same time.

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Post the ship reports along with the modeled 2m wind speeds for the same time.

 

getting cheezburger , will post more later.

but this ship alone has been in the storm all day...100 miles out !  and still recording 75 to 80 mph winds all day. sustained  -

HuapbA.jpg
 

many buoys nearby are reporting the same.

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allgame830

allgame830

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Bacon Strips said:

 

getting cheezburger , will post more later.

but this ship alone has been in the storm all day...100 miles out !  and still recording 75 to 80 mph winds all day. sustained  -

HuapbA.jpg
 

many buoys nearby are reporting the same.

How can that be... Hermine intensity is only max 70 sustained... Could those gusts?

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted

Even if it does weaken some, the damage is already done...as the winds / waves have been building up for days....and are spread out for hundreds of miles.  Just like with the Perfect Storm.   Those waves just won't slip away into the sunset.  Surges could be much higher than expected.   Do we even have recon heading in today ?

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Sophisticated Skeptic

Sophisticated Skeptic

Posted
Posted

at-least okx mentions the uncertainty. 

Quote

There continues to be a great deal of uncertainty with Hermine. What the models do agree on is that Hermine will retrograde to the northwest and then west, taking it well south of Long Island by 06Z Wednesday.

Looks like everybody's gonna wait till tomorrow morning.    It's ridiculous for anybody to think Hermine is going to weaken as quickly as the models are suggesting. Current obs show a much stronger system as is. 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Moving WNW @ 7MPH now... Track adjusted a bit further West in 5pm update with Hermine crossing over Nantucket midweek.

5PM TS force wind map shows TS conditions are currently occurring through the majority of Suffolk county. 

Also prob of TS force winds in NYC has been upped again about 50% now... 

This isn't consistent with current OBS. Highest gust i can find is ISP at 33, below TS force winds. Winds here are about the same, but the sun is shining. I doubt any reporting station on the island sees a gust over 45.

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qg_omega

qg_omega

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, psv88 said:

This isn't consistent with current OBS. Highest gust i can find is ISP at 33, below TS force winds. Winds here are about the same, but the sun is shining. I doubt any reporting station on the island sees a gust over 45.

montauk, maybe but that would be about it

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