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I'll see you in September

J Paul Gordon

By J Paul Gordon,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

furnace for weeks and weeks

57f200af-f7a2-4f8e-a956-a8efad2a32ec.gif

Some selective editing there. Nice job posting to normal/below normal 48 hour window over the next 360 hours.

Kevin is ridiculous and a pretty bad poster but let's call a spade a spade. It's a really warm pattern for the time of year. 

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CT Rain said:

Some selective editing there. Nice job posting to normal/below normal 48 hour window over the next 360 hours.

Kevin is ridiculous and a pretty bad poster but let's call a spade a spade. It's a really warm pattern for the time of year. 

I agree but if someone says its "never ending" or "weeks and weeks" of "furnace" weather, it ignores the fact that it is broken up.  I think it's pretty selective on both ends and I interpret that as someone just playing the same game.

At least the cold shots are breaking up the monotony in the boring pattern.

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J Paul Gordon

J Paul Gordon

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Hysterically hot and humid for weeks and weeks and weeks to come.....in Belize, the Amazon basin, low lying coastal areas of Venezuela... 

Now back to New England. Warm September with cool shots, cooler October, without a doubt, might even get cold by November and most certainly in December.

Its always good to see the rational voices on this page (Tip, Coastal, etc.). But the hysterical and angry ones make it so much fun.

How many folks around here think the CPC is on a fairly correct line through the winter. It does seem to be taking a different look than last year when it seemed to be onto AN all the way through.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
On 8/25/2016 at 0:58 PM, powderfreak said:

My one gripe with winter is the daylight...when you go to work in the dark and return in the dark, it does get to you after a little while. 

Yeah, try working those midnight shifts. The way our schedule works, if you hit a few long term shifts in a row you can go like 72+ hours without seeing the sun unless you get up in the middle of the day to drain the tank.

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, try working those midnight shifts. The way our schedule works, if you hit a few long term shifts in a row you can go like 72+ hours without seeing the sun unless you get up in the middle of the day to drain the tank.

That what would happen to me when I worked 11P-7A.  I'd wake up and the sun was already below the horizon and by the time I got out of work it hadn't risen yet.  I'd get home and be in bed just as it was rising.  It was a short window like that but for a little while I wouldn't see the sun except for my days off.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like the ensembles which isn't a surprise. Should be a nice two day shot of cooler weather.

At least the first patchy frost threat for the deeper elevated pits of NNE.  As BTV said, average first frost is September 7th at SLK.  They can get to 32-36F 2M temp even with like +4 H85 lol. 

"Initially lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 60s...but by Saturday morning patchy frost is possible at slk and across the deeper valleys of the northeast kingdom. Thinking lows will range from the l/m 30s to upper 40s...except mid 50s near lake champlain by early Saturday morning. Average 1st frost at SLK is Sept 7th...so pretty close to normal."

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Any way we can get Ian to be up here with that day 11-15 pattern or is WAR too strong?

not that you asked me .. funny i was just commenting on that in the tropical thread.

for one, i find it impressive that both the oper. Euro and GFS depict similarly how a wave comes off the west coast of Africa, closes off almost immediately (72 hours out from 00z), and then succeeds in keeping it moving W without ever gaining any polar-ward motion ... for some 3,000 miles.  hard to do that from that particular starting position(s) being along the 15th parallel (assuming that's even right - heh, models could be centered on the wrong centroid).  

it would need to all work out that way because believe it or not, that 5 deg of latitude in the initial positioning can mean worlds to a TCs destiny down stream. 

so assuming that happens... the other aspect i was toying with was an idea that Gaston's life-cycle will dump additional latent heat into the surrounding medium (clouds forms, latent heat is converted ... heights respond...etc...); that "could" potential add some to the ridge integrity, which in turn helps maintain a stronger trade/steering level drive along the interface of the lower westerlies and the eq. convergence zone(s). 

keeping in mind also, shallower system's are less prone to subtle pulls that can otherwise cause stronger systems to start their tropical escape sooner -

Assuming all, some or none of that supposition is true, but come hell or high water it still finds a destiny amid the statistical "key hole" region NE of PR like the models insist (ee gads!), it's unfortunately way too early to know who the westerlies from NE of Japan across the mid latitude girdle of the Pacific hemisphere -- > downstream through Chicago and Buffalo are going to perturb in order to ...do whatever comes next that effects a track after ward. 

particularly, the Euro-based products (I, personally...) do not trust an iota beyond D5 or 6, for the orientation/features of the broader synoptic evolution, particularly when it comes to trough amplitudes (or not) between ~ 100W and 70W by 40N ... that proverbial "box" is abused by the Euro to a point of embarrassment by that model; and frankly, none of the model are much better.   due to the native planetary fixation of the SW American ridge (rest state +PNAP), they'll always do better with that anchor point in the flow.. .but the assessment of perturbations that are more(less) capable of altering the circulation downstream of said anchor point ... at this time range it is akin to an errant unmanned fire-hose with these models ... flipping around and spraying solutions, both subtle and gross, with variant probability for success all over the place. 

in other words, not much skill - could of just said that, but i like writing and you hate reading, so that means i get to annoy you - i'm fleetingly happy in search of my next opportunity... 

seriously, the ridge is legit (WAR)...  If pistol-sequestered for an answer?  i'd say in the general sense it helps get the sucker west; obviously the first concern or why bother. it's almost like you want WAR until the right moment, then time a pattern change with the elegant regard of Lucifer's Hammer.  in fact, i would not be shocked if re-analysis of all long track CVers that went on to adding chapters to the EC story had showed something similar... kept the damn thing S for about a light-year, and then 'hated' Long Island suspiciously with divine timing as though the entire thing was operation Hades. 

i did once read ...something, somewhere back when i was a teenager... that a lot of these long track concerns in history, some day(s) prior to their arrival there was a series of cool high pressures that moved through.  actual frosts of early autumn were even mentioned. it was when the pattern coalesced around return flow from the SE where/when surprise(s) arrived.  

ah, too early for all that.  

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, CT Rain said:

Some selective editing there. Nice job posting to normal/below normal 48 hour window over the next 360 hours.

Kevin is ridiculous and a pretty bad poster but let's call a spade a spade. It's a really warm pattern for the time of year. 

well for one thing that's was only 2 days of  a 10 day prog not 16.  I am glad you modified your adjectives in describing what the entire run looks like.  Like I said at least 5 times in this thread  AN pattern 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Some like it hot, some like it cold.....looks like warm to cool to warm in the forecast. Sort of like many/most Septembers I can recall

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?run=2016082812&text=KORH

Nothing hysteric in there though.

 

Today was 7 in a row of no rain. Looks like we could go another 7-10 easily with none as lawns torch up again. Glad we go a bit of a comeback the last week or 2..but they burn

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J Paul Gordon

J Paul Gordon

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29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Absolute mind numbing boredom.The most boring weather period this summer and now early autumn that I ever recall. 

You must be quite young. Besides, I gathered you were quite excited by the withering grass and persistent drought conditions. Water bans are noteworthy (if not hysterically rare) occurrences. Beneath the placid surface lurks the nightmare of weeks and weeks of unremitting summer heat......September, October, November.... a cancelled autumn and endangered winter--who knows when it will stop? (And that would be truly hysterical). 

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