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LakeEffectKing

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Finally some organization. Latest convection has forced a potential LLC underneath it, as seen on visible imagery, very close to Cuba's northern coast, where shear is bearable. If it can manage avoiding much land interaction, we can see some slow but steady organization in the next couple of days. Afterwards, much better conditions may be available in the E GOM.

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Just now, wxmx said:

Finally some organization. Latest convection has forced a potential LLC underneath it, very close to Cuba's northern coast, where shear is bearable. If it can manage avoiding much land interaction, we can see some slow but steady organization in the next couple of days. Afterwards, much better conditions may be available in the E GOM.

look at you breathing some hope into the conversation

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14 minutes ago, Tibet said:

Latest Euro run seems to be coming in slightly further west and stronger?

It sure is.  This run, the euro is keeping the energy more consolidated and farther south near Havana.  Then, instead of getting stretched out and pulled up the Florida peninsula by the upper low associated with 91L, as the last two runs showed, it remains focused and heads west into the central gulf.

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Looking at the vis loop 99L is looking good.  However if you look at the latest IR the deep convection north of Cuba is weakening at the moment.  Center seems to be pretty close to the N shore of Cuba.  Wonder how much of an effect the island will have the next 12 hours.  Looks to be heading west.  That will put it further south into the Gulf with more time for intensification before the north curve.  I guess the key will be how will the wave look as it moves west of Cuba.

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Indirect land interaction via some frictional convergence on both sides of the circulation wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing at the moment. It definitely needs some more strong convective bursts to spin up another mid-level circulation and align it with the low level vort. The negative is if the strong diurnal convection over Cuba manages to tug the LLC too far south and bring it over land.

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5 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

Indirect land interaction via some frictional convergence on both sides of the circulation wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing at the moment. It definitely needs some more strong convective bursts to spin up another mid-level circulation and align it with the low level vort. The negative is if the strong diurnal convection over Cuba manages to tug the LLC too far south and bring it over land.

I thought it was just me that was spotting a potential circulation off the Cuban coast. What worries me is that it looks like that's heading for land later today.

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It does seem to have better outflow and curvature but when you look at the latest IR image the cloud tops over the apparent circulation they are really warming.  We need new convection to start forming.  I see some on the 2045 UTC NW of the center but really would like to see many more going up as the sunsets.

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'Canes are fun to watch       until you're in one.

And then one has to deal with the aftermath in 90+º weather. With no A/C.  And likely no clean water. For days.

Please keep this in mind if you wish for something to form and go somewhere on someone!

'Canes do not melt like a southeast snow - here today, gone tomorrow, pleasant memory, with a few nice pictures ....

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Looks like the LLC is just SE of Key West moving West or slightly WSW.  From this point on its less and less land interaction as it heads into the open gulf.  All convection is to the east right now.

Edit:  As of 130pm east time convection has made it to the LLC and is firing over it now.  Assuming this trend continues strengthening could begin. 

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2PM Outlook Update

60/80

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity has begun to increase near and to
the east of a weak area of low pressure located just south of the
lower Florida Keys.  The low is expected to move westward into the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, where environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few
days.  This system is then expected to move slowly northward and
northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico later this week.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely
to continue over portions of the northwestern Bahamas, central and
western Cuba, the Florida Keys and portions of southern Florida
through Monday.  Interests elsewhere in Florida and the eastern Gulf
of Mexico should continue to monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80
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It is ironic that the 2pm NHC update increases the odds substantially for development and at the same time the bullish Euro comes out and for the first time doesn't develop it at all.  I wonder how much weight the models put in how it looks at initiation?  Convection is finally over the center and if the LLC can clear Cuba you would think it would develop?

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