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Hermine

LakeEffectKing

By LakeEffectKing,
in Tropical Headquarters

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Morris

Morris

Posted
Posted

At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 84.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast today, followed by a slow northwestward motion on Tuesday. A turn toward the north is expected Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be passing north of the north coast of western Cuba today, and moving farther into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm later today or tonight.

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Morris

Morris

Posted
Posted 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone increased this
morning, especially around western Cuba where rainfall totals of up
to 12 inches may have occurred.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigated the system earlier this morning and did not find winds
of tropical storm force.  Based on those observations, and Dvorak
satellite estimates, the current intensity is held at 30 kt.  An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
depression this afternoon, which should give a better estimate of
the strength of the system.  Vertical shear should remain modest
for the next couple of days, but begin to increase around 72 hours
as the environment becomes more baroclinic with strong upper-level
westerlies prevailing over northern Florida.  This is likely to
discourage significant strengthening as the cyclone nears landfall.
The official intensity forecast is close to the latest
statistical/dynamical LGEM guidance.

The center is not easy to locate but is believed to be situated
near the northwestern edge of the cloud mass, and the motion is
estimated to be 280/6 kt.  A mid-tropospheric shortwave trough
developing over the southeastern United States is expected to
induce a turn toward the north and northeast in 2 to 3 days,
followed by acceleration toward the east-northeast late in the
forecast period.  The official forecast is similar to that from the
previous advisory, and is mainly a blend of the latest GFS and
ECMWF solutions but leans toward the latter model.

 

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Seminole

Seminole

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Morris said: 

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092016
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Deep convection associated with the tropical cyclone increased this
morning, especially around western Cuba where rainfall totals of up
to 12 inches may have occurred.  A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigated the system earlier this morning and did not find winds
of tropical storm force.  Based on those observations, and Dvorak
satellite estimates, the current intensity is held at 30 kt.  An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
depression this afternoon, which should give a better estimate of
the strength of the system.  Vertical shear should remain modest
for the next couple of days, but begin to increase around 72 hours
as the environment becomes more baroclinic with strong upper-level
westerlies prevailing over northern Florida.  This is likely to
discourage significant strengthening as the cyclone nears landfall.
The official intensity forecast is close to the latest
statistical/dynamical LGEM guidance.

The center is not easy to locate but is believed to be situated
near the northwestern edge of the cloud mass, and the motion is
estimated to be 280/6 kt.  A mid-tropospheric shortwave trough
developing over the southeastern United States is expected to
induce a turn toward the north and northeast in 2 to 3 days,
followed by acceleration toward the east-northeast late in the
forecast period.  The official forecast is similar to that from the
previous advisory, and is mainly a blend of the latest GFS and
ECMWF solutions but leans toward the latter model.

Interesting that they are leaning toward the Euro when the GFS has had a better handle on this wave. 

 

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Windspeed

Windspeed

Posted
Posted

The MLC is beginning to align with the LLC just northwest of the Cuban coastline. Northerly shear that has been impeding vertical alignment is lessening and the depression is responding with convection over the LLC itself. It is not yet in the best environment for any rapid deepening, however, I think we will have a named storm by this evening.

Sent from my LG G4.

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NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, SnowlieSnowstormson said:

Doesn't sound like the NHC is too gung-ho on this system from a strength perspective.  Shear sounds like it will be a limiting factor in the long term? I feel like this storm has been stalked continuously by shear since the beginning and just can't get away from it long enough to make a difference. 

Until the global models come around they are going to remain conservative. If things continue to ramp up more than the globals are showing, then they will be given less weight. 

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SN_Lover

SN_Lover

Posted
Posted

IF TD9 can gain strength rapidly, I think it has a chance to not recurve and hit TX or LA. Beta models support that and this is the only reason I am considering this scenario. If that scenario happens, could see more time for TD9 to organize and cross a extremely warm eddy. 

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Superstorm93

Superstorm93

Posted
Posted

Outflow is really expanding now, especially the equatorial outflow. 

Recon is wheels-up in an hour. Hopefully they'll investigate the southern portion of the cyclone. Some extremely moist/warm southern inflow in that region. 

 

Quote 

2. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43           FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 43
       A. 29/1800Z                    A. 30/0530Z, 1130Z
       B. NOAA3 07EEA INVEST          B. NOAA3 0809A CYCLONE
       C. 29/1730Z                    C. 30/0430Z
       D. 24.5N 84.0W                 D. 25.0N 85.5W
       E. 29/1745Z TO 29/2230Z        E. 30/0500Z TO 30/1130Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT            F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

 

GOES1615201624245xbvU.jpg

 

 

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bdgwx

bdgwx

Posted
Posted
57 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

IF TD9 can gain strength rapidly, I think it has a chance to not recurve and hit TX or LA. Beta models support that and this is the only reason I am considering this scenario. If that scenario happens, could see more time for TD9 to organize and cross a extremely warn eddy. 

Be careful about using the Beta and Advection Model variations for forecasting cyclone tracks. The BAM is called a trajectory model and is useful for diagnosing a general motion based on whether the forecaster thinks the cyclone will be influenced by shallow, medium, or deep steering flows and the magnitude of the beta effect. They are generally less skillful than dynamical models (like the global or hurricane models) and this is especially the case when an element is in play that would cause the cyclone to turn (either left or right of its track) significantly. I'm not saying a western track isn't possible...just throwing out a word of caution on putting too much confidence in the BAM models.

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