wxmx Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Recon shows 2 LLCs. The main one, that's streaking without shame, and an incipient one further south, around 22.8N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 1 minute ago, wxmx said: Recon shows 2 LLCs. The main one, that's streaking without shame, and an incipient one further south, around 22.8N That could be game changing as 22.8 N is immediately in the deep convection and "S" shape signature Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 You can see the potential LLC, south of the center fixes (south of the "Pinar del Rio Knoll" legend) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 1 minute ago, wxmx said: You can see the potential LLC, south of the center fixes (south of the "Pinar del Rio Knoll" legend) That is interesting. Wonder if a LLC can actually form there. If you take that spot to be the true center for a hypothetical second, TD9 is looking better and better on satellite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 1 minute ago, CoastalBecs said: That is interesting. Wonder if a LLC can actually form there. If you take that spot to be the true center for a hypothetical second, TD9 is looking better and better on satellite. Only if the parent and more defined llc to the north dies off and the one further south takes hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Just now, Inudaw said: Only if the parent and more defined llc to the north dies off and the one further south takes hold. Exactly. Is that even possible at this time? If the northern one can remain convection free, then it could be possible but I wouldn't bet on it at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 6 minutes ago, Inudaw said: Only if the parent and more defined llc to the north dies off and the one further south takes hold. Right. But with the now almost fully exposed main LLC which is experiencing shear around 20+kts and the potential new LLC under the heaviest convection, almost vertically stacked with the MLC and with shear around 10-15 kts, that outcome is looking more and more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, wxmx said: Right. But with the now almost fully exposed main LLC which is experiencing shear around 20+kts and the potential new LLC under the heaviest convection, almost vertically stacked with the MLC and with shear around 10-15 kts, that outcome is looking more and more likely. If that happened I would guess the TD would encounter less shear and make it further west into the Gulf and the re curve would be more towards the Panhandle. Kind of interesting. Wish it was not about to get dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 I'm no met but live down here, so this comes with a grain of salt, no real science, but years of watching my back door closely. If the LLC and MLC reform south as one, as it seems they may be trying to do, then it also seems we have about 24 more hours of friendly environment for a better organized storm, and for me a lesser chance of cleaning up the yard on Friday (more west, less wind here) .... Just tossing this out there - please don't bludgeon me if I'm mistaken :~) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 New England is in a drought. I like how some of the 18z models try to pull whatever is left of the system back towards New England. Noticed the 18Z GFS had a bit of a "tug" NW for part of its path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Recon is going for it. The old LLC is decaying, let's see how's the evolution of the new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 1 minute ago, wxmx said: Recon is going for it. The old LLC is decaying, let's see how's the evolution of the new one. Uh oh... This will change all models and shear impacts etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 3 minutes ago, CoastalBecs said: Uh oh... This will change all models and shear impacts etc. Do you think the change could be significant at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, CoastalBecs said: Uh oh... This will change all models and shear impacts etc. What is this, the 5th recon mission today? Though I guess air time to the storm is only like 1hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Just now, WeatherFan202 said: Do you think the change could be significant at all. Just look at satellite. If the primary LLC is indeed decaying and a new one form just north of the western Cuban coast under the deep convection, then it is already formidable in formation just to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 1 minute ago, WeatherFan202 said: Do you think the change could be significant at all. If a new LLC is south and the MLC couples with a new LLC - Tallahassee is my bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 4 minutes ago, WeatherFan202 said: Do you think the change could be significant at all. If it decreases shear .. probably some greater upward potential for strength. I don't think it means too much for further impact once further north given the shear will increase again once it approaches florida. Could swing further west before turning more sharply east and land fall MIGHT get displaced further south. Least likely outcome... so far south it gets stuck in gulf. Not predicting this though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 a new LLC will definitely make a difference, but the idea that the <50nm between them makes some game changing difference in terms of shear is suspect, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 12 minutes ago, wxmx said: Recon is going for it. The old LLC is decaying, let's see how's the evolution of the new one. Source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Best thing it has going for it is some UL ridging starting to take shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 They found a minimum pressure of 1002.2. Nailed actually by the [redacted] short-term models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 The whole circulation looks terrible, but it could be trying to reform further south based on those pressures. The current convection isn't ideal for the reformation, but we'll need another flight to double check. Point is, shouldn't strengthen Sent from my XT1585 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 23 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said: a new LLC will definitely make a difference, but the idea that the <50nm between them makes some game changing difference in terms of shear is suspect, IMO It's around 70 nm and the shear gradient is very steep in that area 5 to 20+kts in 160 nm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the ghost of leroy Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Just now, wxmx said: It's around 70 nm and the shear gradient is very steep in that area 5 to 20+kts in 160 nm i stand corrected. really 70nm though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Where did you see that? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/recon_NOAA3-0709A-CYCLONE.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 2 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said: i stand corrected. really 70nm though? Last fix was 23.9N 84.5W...the ill defined new LLC is around 22.8N 84.5W...1.1 degrees latitude which is somewhere around 65 nm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 31 minutes ago, Inudaw said: If it decreases shear .. probably some greater upward potential for strength. I don't think it means too much for further impact once further north given the shear will increase again once it approaches florida. Could swing further west before turning more sharply east and land fall MIGHT get displaced further south. Least likely outcome... so far south it gets stuck in gulf. Not predicting this though. There have been a few rogue ensemble members sort of missing the weakness/trough and tracking the system much farther west in the Gulf but the overall consensus on a sharp northeastward turn seems pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 convection is going to town near the center. next few hours could be interesting. I think a lot of us are fascinated by what these very warm (nearly hot) water temps are gonna do with this...even with the mild vertical shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 29, 2016 Share Posted August 29, 2016 Recon is back to the original LLC. 1002.6 low there so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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