Tyler Penland Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I have a question. Why does that map show freezing rain well south of Gainesville but 20 miles north of Gainesville here in Dahlonega its shows rain ? I'm not familar with this area, is it not a good area for CAD ? I grew up in Cleveland and graduated from UNG, and I can say from experience that Dahlonega proper is in a great place for CAD. Once you start north of town and get up closer to the 19/60 split it's a bit harder. In fact 19>Wahsega was pretty much where the big ZR storm in Feb '15 (I think that's the right date) pretty much ended. Unfortunately Dahlongea is too far south for most NW flow, and we had 2 storms while I was at UNG where the 850 low jacked up 850's to +0.5-1 during the middle of big events right along the 400 corridor. OT but there's some fantastic trout fishing down there on the Etowah and Chattahoochee that I greatly miss being up here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 4 hours ago, J.C. said: Pretty interesting look, I've never seen that strong of a wedge without some moisture around. Verbatim, that is starting to look like it could cause a problem or two. The maps that have been posted are faily progressive with regards to amounts, with some areas edging uo towards 2 tenths. .25 is when tree branches start falling and .5 is considered a major ice storm. There's a lot of dry slotting indicated here so it will be interesting to see exactly where that might set up, it's always present. This is still waaay out and lots of ifs here but at least something to watch. This particular map shows ice 2/3 of the way into GA, so that a pretty stout wedge that could hold on awhile into the upstate and peidmont of NC. Can't see the high on this map here but I'll have to look it up as I'm curious what it's suggesting and where it's placed. Too bad the low is a GL cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 hour ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: That's crazy. I'm at 1350' but the bottom of my hill is around 1100'. I guess they could get an ice storm at the bottom of my hill while I'm stuck with rain. Amazing what the wedge can do. Remember last year when Greenville was stuck at 29 degrees with freezing rain while parts of SWNC had warmed to nearly 50 degrees? By the time 85 from Greenville to Spartanburg had warmed to above freezing a few isolated spots had nearly half an inch with 2-3 tenths pretty widespread. Fortunately the warn nose changed it over before it caused serious problems but it was starting to get pretty dicey around Gville with a ton of road issues. Didn't take long, just a couple of hours. All in all, I'd take the higher elevation with better chances of and more snow any time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 @Lookout it would be great to get your opinion on this potential CAD event. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 00z GFS is a touch slower getting the precip going compared to 18z, but not much different...very light icing in similar locations as previous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Canadian is opposite of the GFS...it gets the precip going earlier compared to its previous run....it has a 6-8 hour light icing event Friday night into early Saturday...over a bit wider area compared to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 So now we're back to a potential event Saturday. Crazy back and forth with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 8 minutes ago, griteater said: Canadian is opposite of the GFS...it gets the precip going earlier compared to its previous run....it has a 6-8 hour light icing event Friday night into early Saturday...over a bit wider area compared to GFS Appetizer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 For Mon-Tues, GFS and CMC both have a non-trivial icing event in the hardcore CAD areas in NC and up into Virginia. As long as the front clears through the area on Sunday, I would think this threat on Mon-Tues is legit as more southwest flow quickly brings precip in out of the Gulf. The models aren't really loading the cold air into the region, but I would be leery of that given the stout high to the north over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 ^ If the Florida ridge flexes and the front doesn't clear the area on Sunday, it's a different story....cold air can't march in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 3 hours ago, Snowless in Carrollton said: I'm guessing this area sees about the same amount of snow as Greenville on average. I may be wrong though. Check your messages. We need to chat about Dahlonega. I've lived here about 8 years now and can bring you completely up to speed on all the nuances of this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 The GFS and Canadian for the 19-20th system have a 1043-1045 HP over PA, but all have it sliding OTS. As usual, it'll be timing, timing, and timing. But if 1045 verifies close to the modeled position, I have a hard time not seeing the wedge hanging on longer than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 TWC has freezing rain down to NE GA on Friday night, and still over GSP on into Saturday, on air map they just showed! Off to get my bread and milk! As for the Monday system, I doubt that will bring any frozen to the upstate, because the mountains will keep the cold air from arriving on time, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 The GFS and Canadian for the 19-20th system have a 1043-1045 HP over PA, but all have it sliding OTS. As usual, it'll be timing, timing, and timing. But if 1045 verifies close to the modeled position, I have a hard time not seeing the wedge hanging on longer than modeled.All hail king Euro. Last night 00z run has a stout high in a favorable position, not as transient and the wedge holds for 24 hours. Most of the precip here is ice in CAD regions, would be a terrible ice storm for northern border counties to RDU as the wedge is pretty deep for majority of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: TWC has freezing rain down to NE GA on Friday night, and still over GSP on into Saturday, on air map they just showed! Off to get my bread and milk! As for the Monday system, I doubt that will bring any frozen to the upstate, because the mountains will keep the cold air from arriving on time, IMO Bring on the ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 55 minutes ago, Jon said: All hail king Euro. Last night 00z run has a stout high in a favorable position, not as transient and the wedge holds for 24 hours. Most of the precip here is ice in CAD regions, would be a terrible ice storm for northern border counties to RDU as the wedge is pretty deep for majority of precip. Euro was nasty last night. Has the one Mon afternoon and another round Wed afternoon. It shows 3/4" of ice in RDU with 1"+ in INT/GSO up in Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Yay! A NC special! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yay! A NC special! Those are serious high pressure systems. If they are correctly modeled and hang in long enough, you'll get some ice for sure. One thing I am liking so far is these strong highs that are showing up. This seems to be a change from recent years and will go a very long way in our efforts to score wintry precip this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathang16 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 My area calls for 1.6 inches of ice in Georgia. That what be nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 EURO basically buries NC/VA in ice all week next week. I've never seen anything like that before. Meanwhile, newly crowned king GFS has nothing of the like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 9 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yay! A NC special! Euro has GSP in min 30's during this....I think we have seen a number of time how Euro can be warm with 2m's at this range. But, it is a heck of an atlantic ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 7 minutes ago, Jonathan said: EURO basically buries NC/VA in ice all week next week. I've never seen anything like that before. Meanwhile, newly crowned king GFS has nothing of the like. 0z GFS para has the wave day 6-7 but is a little warmer then the Euro, has a weaker high and temps in the mid 30's for central NC but your area still looks icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Time to stop, collaborate, and listen out for the weather next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Can't wait to see the CMC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Is there any support on the EPS for what the operational run spit out last night? Seems to be a pretty extreme scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 12 minutes ago, packfan98 said: Is there any support on the EPS for what the operational run spit out last night? Seems to be a pretty extreme scenario. Yes, just combing through the members. I didn't study each of them to see if they were all that extreme but many show a wave with CAD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 The EPS control is even more extreme then the op....FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Thanks for the EPS report! Do you guys notice that every winter there is something that shows up in long range models that never actually comes to fruition. Let's see what if I can remember some of them: -Blocking (or any other teleconnection you want to put here) -Strat warming (PV Split) I'm sure there are a handful of others. Feel free to chime in. I'm starting to wonder if this winter, the models keep wanting to pump the SE ridge and make us warm. Maybe it won't happen to great extents. Maybe something in our favor for a change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 21 minutes ago, packbacker said: The EPS control is even more extreme then the op....FWIW. The control is more how I would envision the temperatures setting up given the strong high and its progression into the NE. 32 deg line at least down into SC like CRain mentioned. That control run shows the potential here...but the timing has to be right with the 3 pieces...front clears, sfc high gets in place over the OH valley into NEngland, and precip bursts out of the gulf in SW flow while the high is still in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 13, 2016 Share Posted December 13, 2016 Feeling as confident as ever that despite recent forecast put out by JB and others of a SE roast or to be fair AN December, that we are gonna end up below normal at the end of the month when all is said and done . Speaking GSO and RDU my -2 is going to be to high if anything else it ends up turning out colder. You can't ask for much more than what we have here for Dec. Below normal and a few threats of frozen. I know it's more ice and not snow, but for December outside mtns that's usually what you get handed. So for me it's a great start to winter and Jan and Feb are big unknowns. They could go eitheir way or just end up seasonal/normal, which would be a win, espeacilly if we score in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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