Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

[strongwxnc]

Not sure where to stick this but here goes, Chicagos last below zero high temperature was December 25th of 1983! Since 1872, there have been only 6 December days with highs below zero!! Their high Sunday is forecast at -3!! Truly record setting cold is around , just not making it down here!

curious to see some data to back this up but seems like when the Midwest gets good snows and deep cold we in the SE do not. Chicago has gotten two really good snows this month...
However, should be fun watching get bears play outside on Sunday


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Poimen]

EC wants to bring us all a big bag of coal for Christmas.

[mackerel_sky]

58 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

curious to see some data to back this up but seems like when the Midwest gets good snows and deep cold we in the SE do not. Chicago has gotten two really good snows this month...
However, should be fun watching get bears play outside on Sunday


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

They just had it on a TWC segment. I guess the keywords are December and below zero. I think they probably have a few more below zero highs in Jan and Feb

[Jon]

EC wants to bring us all a big bag of coal for Christmas.

Here's the highs for Christmas Eve for the image you posted


It's a good thing we don't live at 500mb, temps could still be near seasonal. Christmas Day could be around 55-56 for the high but that's definitely a lot better than last year. We'll see.

[Jon]

EC wants to bring us all a big bag of coal for Christmas.

Here's the highs for Christmas Eve for the image you posted


It's a good thing we don't live at 500mb, temps could still be near seasonal. Christmas Day could be around 55-56 for the high but that's definitely a lot better than last year. We'll see.

[Poimen]

14 minutes ago, Jon said:

Here's the highs for Christmas Eve for the image you posted


It's a good thing we don't live at 500mb, temps could still be near seasonal. Christmas Day could be around 55-56 for the high but that's definitely a lot better than last year. We'll see.

It's hard to imagine highs only in the mid 50s the following day with the surface high well east and mid-level ridge bulging overhead. That screams of surface temps well into the 60s to me. It's probably moot at this point, given we're talking about a 10 day model prog.

[FallsLake]

10 minutes ago, Jon said:

Here's the highs for Christmas Eve for the image you posted


It's a good thing we don't live at 500mb, temps could still be near seasonal. Christmas Day could be around 55-56 for the high but that's definitely a lot better than last year. We'll see.

GFS Basically shows the same setup, with what looks like a week CAD. These week CADs could be numerous during the possible warm pattern to end the month.

[AshevilleCityWx]

14 minutes ago, Poimen said:

It's hard to imagine highs only in the mid 50s the following day with the surface high well east and mid-level ridge bulging overhead. That screams of surface temps well into the 60s to me. It's probably moot at this point, given we're talking about a 10 day model prog.

Rains a lot prior will help keep us from torching due to wet/muddy ground. Had the drought/wildfire season kept going yea 60s+ would be probable with dry dusting ground.

[Cold Rain]

Mid-December Update:

Well, the AO, NAO, and PNA all look bad to horrendous in the medium to long range.  If you look at an animation of the predicted 500mb chart on the GFS over the next 384 hours, you see nice, consolidated low heights essentially over the pole, with intrusions into NA and into Europe and Asia.  A parade of strong low pressure systems continues to march around the periphery, keeping the heights from buckling for any extended period, more or less keeping us in the same, stale pattern.  Not looking good for any real winter pattern to set in anywhere in the foreseeable future.  Hopefully, I won't have to make a similar post in mid-January.

In summary, this pretty much sucks.

[Jon]

It's hard to imagine highs only in the mid 50s the following day with the surface high well east and mid-level ridge bulging overhead. That screams of surface temps well into the 60s to me. It's probably moot at this point, given we're talking about a 10 day model prog.

The mean 850mb temp range is 4-12C with a mean of about 8C. 500mb height mean of 5800m, with a mean high of 56F.

GFS has a mean anomaly of +4F at 2m, with a range of +15 and -7. Insane spread at this time so I agree, moot point. But I don't believe the doom and gloom associated with the ridge at this time.

[FallsLake]

Well the indices look terrible today:

PNA - Goes positive in the short term but now goes negative in the LR (yesterday it looked to stay at least neutral)

AO - Goes strongly positive and now looks to average at least slightly positive in the LR.

NAO - Looks to go positive and then average positive in the LR.

So -PNA, +AO, and +NAO in the LR.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

[FallsLake]

7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Mid-December Update:

Well, the AO, NAO, and PNA all look bad to horrendous in the medium to long range.  If you look at an animation of the predicted 500mb chart on the GFS over the next 384 hours, you see nice, consolidated low heights essentially over the pole, with intrusions into NA and into Europe and Asia.  A parade of strong low pressure systems continues to march around the periphery, keeping the heights from buckling for any extended period, more or less keeping us in the same, stale pattern.  Not looking good for any real winter pattern to set in anywhere in the foreseeable future.  Hopefully, I won't have to make a similar post in mid-January.

In summary, this pretty much sucks.

You beat me to it...

[Wow]

Christmas eve into Christmas day is looking interesting with a CAD setup and gulf moisture moving in.  6z GFS keeps the CAD areas stuck in the 30s all day on 12/24

[No snow for you]

14 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Mid-December Update:

Well, the AO, NAO, and PNA all look bad to horrendous in the medium to long range.  If you look at an animation of the predicted 500mb chart on the GFS over the next 384 hours, you see nice, consolidated low heights essentially over the pole, with intrusions into NA and into Europe and Asia.  A parade of strong low pressure systems continues to march around the periphery, keeping the heights from buckling for any extended period, more or less keeping us in the same, stale pattern.  Not looking good for any real winter pattern to set in anywhere in the foreseeable future.  Hopefully, I won't have to make a similar post in mid-January.

In summary, this pretty much sucks.

JB punted until late January for the east coast now. When he folds, you know we are in trouble. 

[Cold Rain]

8 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

JB punted until late January for the east coast now. When he folds, you know we are in trouble. 

Yeah, there's just no way to put lipstick on this pig.  That is not to say, we can't sneak an event or two in, which I'm sure is all most of us care about anyway.  But the eye of the needle is small, and it ain't looking to get any better anytime soon.

[Cold Rain]

20 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

You beat me to it...

I guess the sliver of silver is that with all that hostility, we still don't really look to torch, compliments of frequent cadding....not that there's a lot of solace in that.

[packbacker]

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Yeah, there's just no way to put lipstick on this pig.  That is not to say, we can't sneak an event or two in, which I'm sure is all most of us care about anyway.  But the eye of the needle is small, and it ain't looking to get any better anytime soon.

Just wait for it...the usuals are going to come in and tell you the models are wrong, they flip flop....wait for it....wait for it.  

Pattern will flip....in April.  

[packbacker]

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

I guess the sliver of silver is that with all that hostility, we still don't really look to torch, compliments of frequent cadding....not that there's a lot of solace in that.

Yay....slightly above seasonal and wet. 

[NCSNOW]

16 minutes ago, Wow said:

Christmas eve into Christmas day is looking interesting with a CAD setup and gulf moisture moving in.  6z GFS keeps the CAD areas stuck in the 30s all day on 12/24

I'll take it. Hey if any of you guys follow weber he has a nice write up on Dec 15,1930 storm. Good ole days. Don't think Ive ever seen a storm affet our state as widespread as that one. 2 feet.

[buckeyefan1]

12 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Just wait for it...the usuals are going to come in and tell you the models are wrong, they flip flop....wait for it....wait for it.  

Pattern will flip....in April.  

Yes it will      

[Cold Rain]

21 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Just wait for it...the usuals are going to come in and tell you the models are wrong, they flip flop....wait for it....wait for it.  

Pattern will flip....in April.  

The argument that the models flip is valid.  They do.  But where that point loses value is when it is used to support a position that is out of step with seasonal trends and observations.  For example, we've seen the models flip and flop by showing a strong SE ridge one run and a strong -NAO or +PNA the next.  Ok, fine.  But what has been the result of all of that flip-flopping?  A parade of systems coming ashore in the NW, a strong Pac Jet, no sustained -NAO, no sustained +PNA, no sustained-AO, warm periods, followed by cold shots, with a tendency for SE ridging.  Given all of that, why is model flip-flopping going to all of a sudden result in anything different from that pattern until the background conditions that are responsible for the pattern change?  Those conditions may indeed change as we progress through the winter, but it's unlikely to be a rapid process, IMO.

[Brick Tamland]

[packbacker]

7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

The argument that the models flip is valid.  They do.  But where that point loses value is when it is used to support a position that is out of step with seasonal trends and observations.  For example, we've seen the models flip and flop by showing a strong SE ridge one run and a strong -NAO or +PNA the next.  Ok, fine.  But what has been the result of all of that flip-flopping?  A parade of systems coming ashore in the NW, a strong Pac Jet, no sustained -NAO, no sustained +PNA, no sustained-AO, warm periods, followed by cold shots, with a tendency for SE ridging.  Given all of that, why is model flip-flopping going to all of a sudden result in anything different from that pattern until the background conditions that are responsible for the pattern change?  Those conditions may indeed change as we progress through the winter, but it's unlikely to be a rapid process, IMO.

Yep...agree, so far the NAO hasn't rolled forward and the SER has, which makes sense.   

The 60/72 analogs has similar Feb flips.  We are going to need some strat help I would think.   Still think a bootleg 2000/2002 winter event in early/mid Jan is possible.  

[Cold Rain]

Just now, packbacker said:

Yep...agree, so far the NAO hasn't rolled forward and the SER has, which makes sense.   

The 60/72 analogs has similar Feb flips.  We are going to need some strat help I would think.   Still think a bootleg 2000/2002 winter event in early/mid Jan is possible.  

HM thinks the PV would already be pulverized if it wasn't for the strong westerly QBO.  Not sure how much strat help we can expect this winter.

Two things I really hate around here are the QBO and the SAI.  The QBO is always in the wrong state from where we need it to be, and the SAI is just, well, SMH.

[mackerel_sky]

56 minutes ago, No snow for you said:

JB punted until late January for the east coast now. When he folds, you know we are in trouble. 

That's good, I'm use to waiting on Fab Feb to deliver the goods! It's becoming a regular occurrence! 

[franklin NCwx]

13 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

HM thinks the PV would already be pulverized if it wasn't for the strong westerly QBO.  Not sure how much strat help we can expect this winter.

Two things I really hate around here are the QBO and the SAI.  The QBO is always in the wrong state from where we need it to be, and the SAI is just, well, SMH.

What about glaam? 

[FallsLake]

with all the doom and gloom about the LR (which I agree with) the next seven days actually look very winter like (for at least my back yard):

NWS grid forecast

Today

Sunny, with a high near 43. Northwest wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph.

Tonight

Mostly clear, with a low around 18. Northwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm after midnight.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 34. Light and variable wind.

Friday Night

A chance of freezing rain, mainly after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 28. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday

A chance of freezing rain before 8am, then a chance of rain or freezing rain between 8am and 9am, then a chance of rain after 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 43. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday Night

A slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday

Showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 63. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Sunday Night

Showers likely before 1am, then a chance of rain after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Monday

A chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night

A chance of rain before 3am, then a chance of rain or freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday

A chance of freezing rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Wednesday

Partly sunny, with a high near 48. 

[packbacker]

46 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

HM thinks the PV would already be pulverized if it wasn't for the strong westerly QBO.  Not sure how much strat help we can expect this winter.

Two things I really hate around here are the QBO and the SAI.  The QBO is always in the wrong state from where we need it to be, and the SAI is just, well, SMH.

Yep...but we can still get a weakened PV later in Jan like 2014/2016.  Wouldn't last forever, like we are seeing now, but hopefully give us a 2-3 week window later in Jan into Feb. 

[Cold Rain]

23 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Yep...but we can still get a weakened PV later in Jan like 2014/2016.  Wouldn't last forever, like we are seeing now, but hopefully give us a 2-3 week window later in Jan into Feb. 

Agreed

[NC_hailstorm]

Strat PV really ramping up getting stronger as is the zonal winds so we need some more wave 1 and 2 action to dislodge and split it.The 09-10 year did the same thing when the PV ramped up strong in late Dec early January before breaking down but the pattern went bad for 2 or 3 weeks.I think we'll stay seasonal for a while yet.

GFS is hinting at some action after day 10 so we'll see.