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Sweet '16 Mid-Long Range Discussion

NWNC2015

By NWNC2015,
in Southeastern States

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

Seems like when the models show a torch they end up backing off just a day or two later. Really feel like we could have a good storm before the end of the month. We have tonight's little event,  and another possible event Monday night into Tuesday. Seen this happen before where we get a couple of small events here followed by a big one soon after.

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

This reminds me of a few years back where the indices looked horrible and the LR models continued to show warm ups. As we got closer they backed off the warm up and we ended up below normal or at least neutral. (but)If I can remember right we did have the EPO negative; (so)not sure how we do that this time unless we can get multiple CAD setups (...which seem to be showing up).   

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, MichaelJ said:

LOL, packbacker is the antithesis of JB, if there is a warm model out there, he will find it! :D

Bingo! If there is one model that shows heat or rain, instead of snow, he will find it!! I bet he's got his own homemade model in his basement, like JBs " pioneer" !!lol

packs in house model is named : Brick 2000

 

 

 

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Jon

Jon

Posted
Posted

If anyone remembers the EXCAM seasonal "model" by Al Marinaro, it is out of commission. However, I took it upon myself to create the images.

This using the Top 10 CPC 6-10 Day Analogs for our upcoming pattern located here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/analog.php

These 10 dates have a pretty high correlation 94.4%, I took these dates and extrapolated them out to Week 3 and Week 4, here are the results. (Preface this with there could be errors, my first time doing this...lots of manual math even with excel)

Week 3 (12/31/16-01/6/17)

Mz0xwCw.gif

4vCRciD.gif

 

 

Week 4 (01/7/17-01/13/17)

C7pMtCU.gif

G9YpKtI.gif

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

I actually prefer to keep the pattern we've been having up to this point and take my chances with it. Rdu is sitting at -2.8, GSO -3 for the month. Our first problem is always cold air. I'll take my chances with this cause eventually well hit one over the fence if it holds up. Noticing these fronts start coming through and stalling off the coast cause ser holds em up. That sets up the opportunity for over runing. Jan 2000 /10 day stretch that's what happened. Artic front was draped stalled out along gulf Coast and off ne florida coast and little waves would run along it and throw back moisture. The crusher came about by a little piece of ns energy diving down into the leftover front and it bombed out. Haven't seen a lot of ns energy on the field, that's the one thing I wish would show up more. But these fronts coming through and stalling off the coast isn't a bad thing and can provide alot of opportunity in dead of winter.

Also Larry for 2 years has been doing extensive studies on mjo and has the research to back it up, but basically as long as it's in the inner circle and preferably left side the SE stays normal to below, regardless of everything else. From what I gather euro , maybe ensembles or control show this staying locked in. Wish I could explain it better, bottom line is don't beleive the seasonal models espeacilly american suite cause they keep sending false alarms. Now if mjo starts moving into unfavorable spots then get the sunscreen out.  I just butchered his theory but it requires alot of reading to understand.

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mackerel_sky

mackerel_sky

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

I actually prefer to keep the pattern we've been having up to this point and take my chances with it. Rdu is sitting at -2.8, GSO -3 for the month. Our first problem is always cold air. I'll take my chances with this cause eventually well hit one over the fence if it holds up. Noticing these fronts start coming through and stalling off the coast cause ser holds em up. That sets up the opportunity for over runing. Jan 2000 /10 day stretch that's what happened. Artic front was draped stalled out along gulf Coast and off ne florida coast and little waves would run along it and throw back moisture. The crusher came about by a little piece of ns energy diving down into the leftover front and it bombed out. Haven't seen a lot of ns energy on the field, that's the one thing I wish would show up more. But these fronts coming through and stalling off the coast isn't a bad thing and can provide alot of opportunity in dead of winter.

Also Larry for 2 years has been doing extensive studies on mjo and has the research to back it up, but basically as long as it's in the inner circle and preferably left side the SE stays normal to below, regardless of everything else. From what I gather euro , maybe ensembles or control show this staying locked in. Wish I could explain it better, bottoman line is don't beleive the seasonal models espeacilly am suite cause they keep sending false alarms. Now if mjo starts moving into unfavorable spots then get the sunscreen out.  I just butchered his theory but it requires alot of reading to understand.

But Pack promised we'd finish December above normal!?

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Jonathan

Jonathan

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

I actually prefer to keep the pattern we've been having up to this point and take my chances with it. Rdu is sitting at -2.8, GSO -3 for the month. Our first problem is always cold air. I'll take my chances with this cause eventually well hit one over the fence if it holds up. Noticing these fronts start coming through and stalling off the coast cause ser holds em up. That sets up the opportunity for over runing. Jan 2000 /10 day stretch that's what happened. Artic front was draped stalled out along gulf Coast and off ne florida coast and little waves would run along it and throw back moisture. The crusher came about by a little piece of ns energy diving down into the leftover front and it bombed out. Haven't seen a lot of ns energy on the field, that's the one thing I wish would show up more. But these fronts coming through and stalling off the coast isn't a bad thing and can provide alot of opportunity in dead of winter.

Also Larry for 2 years has been doing extensive studies on mjo and has the research to back it up, but basically as long as it's in the inner circle and preferably left side the SE stays normal to below, regardless of everything else. From what I gather euro , maybe ensembles or control show this staying locked in. Wish I could explain it better, bottom line is don't beleive the seasonal models espeacilly american suite cause they keep sending false alarms. Now if mjo starts moving into unfavorable spots then get the sunscreen out.  I just butchered his theory but it requires alot of reading to understand.

The MJO is in the outer part of the circle of death and trying to peek out in phase 5-6...which is absolutely no good for anyone in the east.

mjo.gif

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