jshetley Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: That's also a bullseye over Shetleys house!! Cant happen! Actually the bullseye on that map is in Greenville county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGTim Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, HWY316wx said: I guess 5 days out is considered mid-range? 6Z is pictured first, latest 12Z is pictured 2nd. I would call this a potential ice storm. NWS Peachtree seems to be on-board as well. They even have a forecast graphic up about it. I am heeding their warning that lots could change especially in terms of timing of the cold and moisture coming together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 The CMC was close to something big mid week next week so maybe the euro ens will sniff it out as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Can't go wrong with a CMC/Euro combo! Sincerely, GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Can't go wrong with a CMC/Euro combo! Sincerely, GFS Yeah, that hasn't let us down since , like,, yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 OK, someone please tell me what I'm seeing on the last pane of the recent Euro run. Looks like a low popping in the GOM around Houston with much of the country BN. Are my eyes deceiving me? Granted it's 10 days out, but maybe a Christmas miracle is possible. Edit- scratch that. 850 line near Chicago/Detroit. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, SnowDeac said: OK, someone please tell me what I'm seeing on the last pane of the recent Euro run. Looks like a low popping in the GOM around Houston with much of the country BN. Are my eyes deceiving me? Granted it's 10 days out, but maybe a Christmas miracle is possible. Looks great until you realize there is no real cold air source and 850's are +10 to +15 all over the south and southeast... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Just now, tnweathernut said: Looks great until you realize there is no real cold air source and 850's are +10 to +15 all over the south and southeast... :-) Yep. I edited. Most recent CMC run even shows what appears to be a little deformation band in the classic upstate/CLT area after the system next Tues/Wed. Interesting to see this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 The D10 Euro is a hot mess. It might get good after that, though. At least Canada is cold. That's important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The D10 Euro is a hot mess. It might get good after that, though. At least Canada is cold. That's important. And yet...somehow...day 11+ is worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 15 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The D10 Euro is a hot mess. It might get good after that, though. At least Canada is cold. That's important. We toss the Euro! It sucks now!! All hail GFS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 6 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: We toss the Euro! It sucks now!! All hail GFS!! The day 7-8 threat is there on the EPS...FWIW. Not sure I would run out buy batteries just yet though. You can see the wave showing up with the big HP overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 And yet...somehow...day 11+ is worse.to be fair the SER keeps getting pushed back or beaten back some every model run . the day 8-12 ensembles were showing a SER ridge middle of next week. now we have a trough digging into the east. will be interesting to see how days 10-15 actually verify vs what's being show . Obviously there will be one but to what extent Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 minute ago, Stormcatt said: to be fair the SER keeps getting pushed back or beaten back some every model run . the day 8-12 ensembles were showing a SER ridge middle of next week. now we have a trough digging into the east. will be interesting to see how days 10-15 actually verify vs what's being show . Obviously there will be one but to what extent Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk This ain't good...but like you said, the day 11+ range hasn't been the most consistent on models. Not to worried yet, unless we get to early January and it looks like this. This is +AO/+NAO/+EPO/-PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Euro is the new DGEX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormcatt Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 This ain't good...but like you said, the day 11+ range hasn't been the most consistent on models. Not to worried yet, unless we get to early January and it looks like this. This is +AO/+NAO/+EPO/-PNA. I agree with you there . if we get into January with this I'll be worried. But, as bad as that is at least it's not a lasting torch pattern. God I sound desperate Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Nina is definitely fading...I know stating the obvious at this point. Curious to see what correlations that has to late winter for dying nina's. Middle of big burst too and that appears to be fading. The SOI couldn't be more neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 Novice here. I know that with the tropics it takes a while for the effects of a new Nino or Nina to be felt. Is that the case with winter in the southeast too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 19 minutes ago, Stormcatt said: God I sound desperate Solace - who doesn't sound that way in these parts? So far I'm sticking with my guns - warm December overall, normal January overall (which wouldn't be bad given its the coldest month anyway), a slightly BN and wet Feb (which wouldn't be bad for you folks north of here), and a warm March, with one possibility I'm thinking in mid-Jan for a 1983, 1985, 1989 type 3 - 5 day big bad intrusion. This has been my private thought - largely for for N FL (shared with Jon and few others in October) and I'm offering it up on the public altar here in hopes that it pans out further north for you all and desperation flies away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 18 minutes ago, packbacker said: Nina is definitely fading...I know stating the obvious at this point. Curious to see what correlations that has to late winter for dying nina's. Middle of big burst too and that appears to be fading. The SOI couldn't be more neutral. If the Nina fades quick that should help February I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 9 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Solace - who doesn't sound that way in these parts? So far I'm sticking with my guns - warm December overall , normal January overall (which wouldn't be bad given its the coldest month anyway), a slightly BN and wet Feb (which wouldn't be bad for you folks north of here), and a warm March, with one possibility I'm thinking in mid-Jan for a 1983, 1985, 1989 type 3 - 5 day big bad intrusion. This has been my private thought - largely for for N FL (shared with Jon and few others in October) and I'm offering it up on the public altar here in hopes that it pans out further north for you all and desperation flies away! I really hope your right. Back in November I was thinking this would be a front end winter. I suppose December can still end up below normal but it would be terrible if this ended up being the best part of winter. As pack showed above nina is fading so maybe the backend of winter now has a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 2 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I really hope your right. Back in November I was thinking this would be a front end winter. I suppose December can still end up below normal but it would be terrible if this ended up being the best part of winter. As pack showed above nina is fading so maybe the backend of winter now has a chance. Cosgrove would look good if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 5 minutes ago, GaStorm said: Cosgrove would look good if that happens. Believe me - Cosgrove had (and has) nothing to do with my thinking. It was all tropics, Sept/Oct indices and their general swing pattern - to + to -, history, and honestly, some gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 GFS coming in a little quicker with the precip Friday night...it has more of a coastal front just off the Carolina coast this run...so, some light icing down into NE Georgia. Ground surfaces should be cold with the cold temps on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 3 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS coming in a little quicker with the precip Friday night...it has more of a coastal front just off the Carolina coast this run...so, some light icing down into NE Georgia. Ground surfaces should be cold with the cold temps on Friday. ^ light icing from NW and Central NC down into NE GA that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 1 hour ago, packbacker said: The day 7-8 threat is there on the EPS...FWIW. Not sure I would run out buy batteries just yet though. You can see the wave showing up with the big HP overhead. Pretty stout 1040 mb HP for a mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaStorm Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 18 minutes ago, pcbjr said: Believe me - Cosgrove had (and has) nothing to do with my thinking. It was all tropics, Sept/Oct indices and their general swing pattern - to + to -, history, and honestly, some gut. Lol. I didn't say that he did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 11 minutes ago, griteater said: ^ light icing from central NC down into NE GA that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 gfs with another icing event monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 12, 2016 Share Posted December 12, 2016 GFS is colder this run for Mon-Tues. Strong high pressure stretched out from the Ohio Valley into New England. Precip hanging along the SE coast amidst SW flow from wave over AZ/NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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