hlcater Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 WRFs want to develop a line in W IA and dive it SSE and miss most of E. IA/N IL. Then you have the NAM that progresses much faster and has the line well into central IL by 00z. Then there's the GFS, with similar cold front position as previous runs but instability is displaced east. tstms might have developed and used the CAPE farther west though. (Dew point looks a bit odd on that sounding, if that means anything.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Cells starting to pop in northwest IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Cells starting to pop in northwest IN. just east of yby, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MICHIGAN...NORTHERN INDIANA...AND FAR EASTERN ILLINOIS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 122020Z - 122145Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...CLUSTERS/LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ADVANCE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING OCCASIONAL STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WATCH ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A SMALL LINE OF CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH AND A CORRIDOR OF HIGHER THETA-E ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS LINE SHOULD ENSURE THAT STORMS PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD. ADDITIONALLY...FURTHER DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE TROUGH...TOWARDS NORTHERN INDIANA. REGIONAL VWP DATA EXHIBIT AROUND 30-40 KTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE 2-5 KM LAYER...AND DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF THIS MOMENTUM THROUGH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ENCOURAGE AT LEAST A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY...A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE SHOULD MAINTAIN GENERALLY LINEAR/CLUSTER STORM MODES...ALSO FAVORING PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT. NONETHELESS...A LACK OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER DEEP SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL THREAT RELATIVELY LOW. AS SUCH...WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ..PICCA/THOMPSON.. 07/12/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Maybe a chance for severe weather in IN/MI/OH tomorrow. CAPE may be above 3000 J/kg early in the day. A small shortwave in the 500mb flow should kick off some storms, with 0-6km shear possibly 30kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Maybe a chance for severe weather in IN/MI/OH tomorrow. CAPE may be above 3000 J/kg early in the day. A small shortwave in the 500mb flow should kick off some storms, with 0-6km shear possibly 30kts. Agreed, I'm cautiously optimistic for tomorrow seeing as there's no real convection behind the line right moving through now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Agreed, I'm cautiously optimistic for tomorrow seeing as there's no real convection behind the line right moving through now. There should be some convection that forms near the Missouri/Iowa border later tonight that will move ENE. How that evolves will definitely have an impact on tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Agreed, I'm cautiously optimistic for tomorrow seeing as there's no real convection behind the line right moving through now. The 18z 4km NAM and 12z WRF-ARW both look downright nasty near Hillsdale. Still though, the shear values should be 30 knots-ish so it would be pretty unlikely to get highly organized supercells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 12, 2016 Share Posted July 12, 2016 Here she comes... Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 Hillsdale you gotta temper your expectations a bit lol. That high LCL is going to murder these storms coming through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 Hillsdale you gotta temper your expectations a bit lol. That high LCL is going to murder these storms coming through I know, was just taking pictures of the interesting cloud formations. I wasn't expecting any severe tonight at all. Did get some nice rain though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 Surprised the storms remain severe and have survived so far east. Still not expecting anything other than a dying rain shower at best here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 Surprised the storms remain severe and have survived so far east. Still not expecting anything other than a dying rain shower at best here though. We might get some thunder but it will be subsevere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 Yea -- Rain! There is a decent amount of wind before the rain starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 New SEvere Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for WAyne County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 About to roll in here. Hopefully provides a quick downpour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 Some sprinkles, that's about it IMBY. Broke up overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 Some sprinkles, that's about it IMBY. Broke up overhead. Any thunder / lightning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 Any thunder / lightning? Distant. Didn't see any strikes overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 Distant. Didn't see any strikes overhead. Getting a heavy downpour now. Thunder's probably not going to happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 NAM 4K still showing a large MCS tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 4km NAM suggests redevelopment in Illinois tomorrow afternoon and then it looks like the round behind that heads more toward central IL/IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 NAM 4K still showing a large MCS tomorrow night. Some of the other Hi-Res models show the same thing, except more so tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 I would bet that the slight area gets trimmed down tomorrow on the first update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 New day 1 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 PM CDT TUE JUL 12 2016 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH WIND THE MAIN THREAT. ...SYNOPSIS... THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM ONTARIO SWWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY...AND WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A POSITIVE TILT OVERNIGHT AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONG MID TO HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH MAIN JET CORE FROM THE MID MO VALLEY NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT NEWD ACROSS ONTARIO WITH A WEAKER SECONDARY LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS. IN BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS WILL BE A RATHER WEAK SFC PATTERN WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM CNTRL KS INTO ERN NEB/IA BY LATE AFTERNOON. S OF THIS BOUNDARY...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL EXIST WITH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS BENEATH COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES. ...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... INITIALLY...THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE SWLY/VEERED WITH WARM ADVECTION FOCUSED ACROSS IL WHERE SOME EARLY AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED. SPORADIC SEVERE IS POSSIBLE AS THIS EARLY ACTIVITY CONTINUES EWD ACROSS MO/IL/IND/LOWER MI AND OH DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND POSSIBLE. TO THE W...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR NEAR THE SFC TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WITH A COOLER BUT MORE MOIST AIR MASS OVER ERN NEB AND KS NEWD TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE DAY OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH EARLY INITIATION DEPICTED BY SEVERAL MODELS OVER ERN KS/NEB INTO IA. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT AND LONG HODOGRAPHS SUGGEST SOME HAIL THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. BY AFTERNOON...INDICATIONS ARE THAT AN MCS MAY FORM IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WARMER AIR MASS ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS INTO THE EVENING WITH THE GREATEST RISK ACROSS ERN KS...SERN NEB...MO...SRN IA AND WRN IL. WHILE A CORRIDOR OF GREATER SEVERE WIND RISK MAY EXIST WITHIN THE OVERALL SLIGHT...PREDICTABILITY ISSUES GIVEN SUBTLE SFC PATTERN AND EFFECTS OF EARLY ACTIVITY CURRENTLY PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO ENHANCED RISK. ELSEWHERE...VERY STRONG HEATING WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH A THREAT OF HAIL FOR A FEW HOURS. LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP SFC AND ALOFT...WITH WEAK BUT VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT SUPPORTING A FEW SLOW-MOVING CORES. ..JEWELL/ROGERS.. 07/13/2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 basically if tomorrow over performs id see the Slight risk being expanded towards Detroit and a Enhanced by Chicago, underperform it gets cut down obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 The NAM / 4km NAM really has a good environment for severe weather in northern Missouri and eastern Iowa tomorrow. 3400-5000 J/kg of CAPE and 50kt of effective shear. Low 0-3km SRH values would make for a lower chance of low-level mesocyclones and tornadoes, but medium 0-3km SRH values could develop later in the day in Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 Non event imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 Convection out west of the Missouri puking out copies amounts of clouds. Mature MCS in KS. HRRR says that's the main event for the day as it tracks through Missouri into downstate IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted July 13, 2016 Share Posted July 13, 2016 Looks like there's a surprise along the I-55 corridor folks will be/are waking up to. Could affect Chicago mid morning if it holds together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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