Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    cryptoblizzard
    Newest Member
    cryptoblizzard
    Joined

All-purpose Thunderstorm Discussion Thread


weatherwiz

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 minute ago, dryslot said:

If anything, It's going to be evening into overnight up here

I don't have bufkit installed like I did in previous years. My only concern into tomorrow is that status of that EML. Does it mix out and away from NE going into tomorrow? Might have a more substantial event on our hands if it is still present. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can see drier air working in on the water vapor. We have good parameters today but I think we'll have an area near the Hudson Valley or CT/NW of NYC get the most storms (if that can break the cap). Not seeing much positive progress in the CU fields on visible. So south of pike does better maybe.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

You can see drier air working in on the water vapor. We have good parameters today but I think we'll have an area near the Hudson Valley or CT/NW of NYC get the most storms (if that can break the cap). Not seeing much positive progress in the CU fields on visible. So south of pike does better maybe.

We're definitely losing some low level convergence as the first shortwave moves east. That's going to leave forcing to be very localized.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Possible there's no storms today at all after all that lol

stuff has popped up along i-90 in central NYS down stream of Lakes due to breeze boundary propagation so you may want to follow those -

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

stuff has popped up along i-90 in central NYS down stream of Lakes due to breeze boundary propagation so you may want to follow those -

that may be the activity the NAM had been developing for several runs now which pushes into western CT...we'll see how much activity forms though.  Lots of westerly sfc winds really limiting convergence.  They are, however, slightly more SW across CT but still with a bit of a westerly component (so more WSW).  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

that may be the activity the NAM had been developing for several runs now which pushes into western CT...we'll see how much activity forms though.  Lots of westerly sfc winds really limiting convergence.  They are, however, slightly more SW across CT but still with a bit of a westerly component (so more WSW).  

Actually just forget this...lay off the drugs b/c nothing is going to happen...its just a few pop-up garbage tiny thunderstorms which are meant nothing more than to just give hope and a reason to keep watching.  "Oh keep watching the trends...keep watching the radar"  WATCH NOTHING.  Nothing can come together right this summer...nothing.  Fook high cape, fook high dewpoints, fook high temps, and the models forecast of lapse rates have been crap.  Only model to handle them right is the NAM.  Who gives a poop is some 6.5-7 come streaming overhead at 4:00 AM...the only help that provides is for the birds who can just adjust their flying altitude if they want different temperatures.  It always comes down to forcing, forcing, forcing...forcing always looked like garbage in SNE...it was always crap.  Then of course we would see westerly sfc winds develop with that morning s/w track...that was obvious.  

 

Maybe we see some crap develop but all it will do is provide some 3 towns with waters for their pathetic overgrown gardens and their stupid lawns which don't need to be watered b/c its a waste...let them burn.  let the animals piss on it for water.  

What an absolute garbage of a summer and good luck to central New England tomorrow b/c they'll probably get something.  The forcing WILL BE THERE...FORCING...and the lapse rates will be solid to go along with good shear and cape...you know what this means...IT ALL TIMES CORRECTLY.  

I'm going to go into work and at least get an hour in.  The radar can piss off.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Possible there's no storms today at all after all that lol

 

Welcome to New England.

 

Still, it's the hottest day of the summer.  Topped out so far at 87.9, down to 86.7/68 now.

 

Super nice breeze though.   Nice and comfy in spite of the temp.  The wind's not helping the pool though--I need to continually skim the leaves out. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Funny...I said to myself down here at the beach that maybe the brilliant sunshine and no high clouds would bode well for interior zones....great brisk sw wind down here so it is not miserable like it is back home....now this is another non event lol as temps approach 100 f in death valley under brilliant sunshine and ample humidity

mcs debris is the least of the worries lol, perhaps some remnant showers would have laid down the goods to focus better severe

just another fail lol....and I heard about the "possibilities" for days

hope this is not a harbinger for next winter...ugh

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said:

Funny...I said to myself down here at the beach that maybe the brilliant sunshine and no high clouds would bode well for interior zones....great brisk sw wind down here so it is not miserable like it is back home....now this is another non event lol as temps approach 100 f in death valley under brilliant sunshine and ample humidity

mcs debris is the least of the worries lol, perhaps some remnant showers would have laid down the goods to focus better severe

just another fail lol....and I heard about the "possibilities" for days

hope this is not a harbinger for next winter...ugh

 

relax

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Actually just forget this...lay off the drugs b/c nothing is going to happen...its just a few pop-up garbage tiny thunderstorms which are meant nothing more than to just give hope and a reason to keep watching.  "Oh keep watching the trends...keep watching the radar"  WATCH NOTHING.  Nothing can come together right this summer...nothing.  Fook high cape, fook high dewpoints, fook high temps, and the models forecast of lapse rates have been crap.  Only model to handle them right is the NAM.  Who gives a poop is some 6.5-7 come streaming overhead at 4:00 AM...the only help that provides is for the birds who can just adjust their flying altitude if they want different temperatures.  It always comes down to forcing, forcing, forcing...forcing always looked like garbage in SNE...it was always crap.  Then of course we would see westerly sfc winds develop with that morning s/w track...that was obvious.  

 

Maybe we see some crap develop but all it will do is provide some 3 towns with waters for their pathetic overgrown gardens and their stupid lawns which don't need to be watered b/c its a waste...let them burn.  let the animals piss on it for water.  

What an absolute garbage of a summer and good luck to central New England tomorrow b/c they'll probably get something.  The forcing WILL BE THERE...FORCING...and the lapse rates will be solid to go along with good shear and cape...you know what this means...IT ALL TIMES CORRECTLY.  

I'm going to go into work and at least get an hour in.  The radar can piss off.  

:lol::lmao: Epic rant!  Love it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

New England severe threats are just a little more legitimate than prospects of snow in the coastal Carolinas.

 

Beautiful late afternoon.

 

pretty funny - ha.  and true. 

buuut, i'm sure in ORH County circa 1953 they may have felt otherwise.  word

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Meltdowns aside, Wiz is right about the forcing aspect.

It's just too dry aloft right now for localized convective initiation. We need sustained convergence to get an updraft to really go right now. Elevated heat source like terrain or a diffuse boundary won't cut it.

But jet energy is starting to increase from the NW. We're seeing sustained convection where the red and purple overlap.

ddiv.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Meltdowns aside, Wiz is right about the forcing aspect.

It's just too dry aloft right now for localized convective initiation. We need sustained convergence to get an updraft to really go right now. Elevated heat source like terrain or a diffuse boundary won't cut it.

But jet energy is starting to increase from the NW. We're seeing sustained convection where the red and purple overlap.

ddiv.gif

it's interesting for me you posted this graphic... i've been watching the band of now glaciating TCU arcing ...collocated with that SW Quebec region, and wondering if that may 'unzip' (so to speak) and perhaps a right turning complex later on.  There little rinky-dink red region in central VT could be the axis -extension.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

it's interesting for me you posted this graphic... i've been watching the band of now glaciating TCU arcing ...collocated with that SW Quebec region, and wondering if that may 'unzip' (so to speak) and as perhaps a right turning complex later on.  There little rinky-dink red region in central VT could be the axis -extension.

I think eventually the convection may go the way of the shortwave, and pivot off to the east late tonight, but early on could be a SE moving complex.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I think eventually the convection may go the way of the shortwave, and pivot off to the east late tonight, but early on could be a SE moving complex.

 

i recall as an undergrad when we covered MCC's ... 

radiative cloud-top cooling ...particularly when the complex moves toward a llv inflow source of heat and dps, can get those to propagate along into a region otherwise devoid of triggers... wonder if this could be a scenario - 

hahah.  we're desperately scraping for reason here - nice!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...