Damage In Tolland Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Soon..America will be great again..until then we wait Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 I heard that one of the presidential nominees has the ability to bring back severe weather to New England, just by being a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I heard that one of the presidential nominees has the ability to bring back severe weather to New England, just by being a winner. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xubCItLvNhE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 56 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Looks good for NNE tomorrow. Looks a lot like what I read here yesterday, only for today. Svr delayed is svr denied? We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Up to 85.3/68 here at the Pit. Fortunately, there's a great breeze so it's not feeling too bad as I work poolside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Ryan just pulled the plug on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Models look like they have no clue. No consensus at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Models seem like isolated storms. No widespread stuff. Hints that we might have trigger issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Tonight and tomorrow might be more promising than today. Vigorous s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 If anything, It's going to be evening into overnight up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 1 minute ago, dryslot said: If anything, It's going to be evening into overnight up here I don't have bufkit installed like I did in previous years. My only concern into tomorrow is that status of that EML. Does it mix out and away from NE going into tomorrow? Might have a more substantial event on our hands if it is still present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 You can see drier air working in on the water vapor. We have good parameters today but I think we'll have an area near the Hudson Valley or CT/NW of NYC get the most storms (if that can break the cap). Not seeing much positive progress in the CU fields on visible. So south of pike does better maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 5 minutes ago, sbos_wx said: You can see drier air working in on the water vapor. We have good parameters today but I think we'll have an area near the Hudson Valley or CT/NW of NYC get the most storms (if that can break the cap). Not seeing much positive progress in the CU fields on visible. So south of pike does better maybe. We're definitely losing some low level convergence as the first shortwave moves east. That's going to leave forcing to be very localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Possible there's no storms today at all after all that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Possible there's no storms today at all after all that lol That was always a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Possible there's no storms today at all after all that lol stuff has popped up along i-90 in central NYS down stream of Lakes due to breeze boundary propagation so you may want to follow those - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: stuff has popped up along i-90 in central NYS down stream of Lakes due to breeze boundary propagation so you may want to follow those - that may be the activity the NAM had been developing for several runs now which pushes into western CT...we'll see how much activity forms though. Lots of westerly sfc winds really limiting convergence. They are, however, slightly more SW across CT but still with a bit of a westerly component (so more WSW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 22, 2016 Author Share Posted July 22, 2016 12 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: that may be the activity the NAM had been developing for several runs now which pushes into western CT...we'll see how much activity forms though. Lots of westerly sfc winds really limiting convergence. They are, however, slightly more SW across CT but still with a bit of a westerly component (so more WSW). Actually just forget this...lay off the drugs b/c nothing is going to happen...its just a few pop-up garbage tiny thunderstorms which are meant nothing more than to just give hope and a reason to keep watching. "Oh keep watching the trends...keep watching the radar" WATCH NOTHING. Nothing can come together right this summer...nothing. Fook high cape, fook high dewpoints, fook high temps, and the models forecast of lapse rates have been crap. Only model to handle them right is the NAM. Who gives a poop is some 6.5-7 come streaming overhead at 4:00 AM...the only help that provides is for the birds who can just adjust their flying altitude if they want different temperatures. It always comes down to forcing, forcing, forcing...forcing always looked like garbage in SNE...it was always crap. Then of course we would see westerly sfc winds develop with that morning s/w track...that was obvious. Maybe we see some crap develop but all it will do is provide some 3 towns with waters for their pathetic overgrown gardens and their stupid lawns which don't need to be watered b/c its a waste...let them burn. let the animals piss on it for water. What an absolute garbage of a summer and good luck to central New England tomorrow b/c they'll probably get something. The forcing WILL BE THERE...FORCING...and the lapse rates will be solid to go along with good shear and cape...you know what this means...IT ALL TIMES CORRECTLY. I'm going to go into work and at least get an hour in. The radar can piss off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 59 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Possible there's no storms today at all after all that lol Welcome to New England. Still, it's the hottest day of the summer. Topped out so far at 87.9, down to 86.7/68 now. Super nice breeze though. Nice and comfy in spite of the temp. The wind's not helping the pool though--I need to continually skim the leaves out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: We're definitely losing some low level convergence as the first shortwave moves east. That's going to leave forcing to be very localized. Northern ME seems to be getting good convection today. Morning and afternoon for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Funny...I said to myself down here at the beach that maybe the brilliant sunshine and no high clouds would bode well for interior zones....great brisk sw wind down here so it is not miserable like it is back home....now this is another non event lol as temps approach 100 f in death valley under brilliant sunshine and ample humidity mcs debris is the least of the worries lol, perhaps some remnant showers would have laid down the goods to focus better severe just another fail lol....and I heard about the "possibilities" for days hope this is not a harbinger for next winter...ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 1 minute ago, codfishsnowman said: Funny...I said to myself down here at the beach that maybe the brilliant sunshine and no high clouds would bode well for interior zones....great brisk sw wind down here so it is not miserable like it is back home....now this is another non event lol as temps approach 100 f in death valley under brilliant sunshine and ample humidity mcs debris is the least of the worries lol, perhaps some remnant showers would have laid down the goods to focus better severe just another fail lol....and I heard about the "possibilities" for days hope this is not a harbinger for next winter...ugh relax Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Actually just forget this...lay off the drugs b/c nothing is going to happen...its just a few pop-up garbage tiny thunderstorms which are meant nothing more than to just give hope and a reason to keep watching. "Oh keep watching the trends...keep watching the radar" WATCH NOTHING. Nothing can come together right this summer...nothing. Fook high cape, fook high dewpoints, fook high temps, and the models forecast of lapse rates have been crap. Only model to handle them right is the NAM. Who gives a poop is some 6.5-7 come streaming overhead at 4:00 AM...the only help that provides is for the birds who can just adjust their flying altitude if they want different temperatures. It always comes down to forcing, forcing, forcing...forcing always looked like garbage in SNE...it was always crap. Then of course we would see westerly sfc winds develop with that morning s/w track...that was obvious. Maybe we see some crap develop but all it will do is provide some 3 towns with waters for their pathetic overgrown gardens and their stupid lawns which don't need to be watered b/c its a waste...let them burn. let the animals piss on it for water. What an absolute garbage of a summer and good luck to central New England tomorrow b/c they'll probably get something. The forcing WILL BE THERE...FORCING...and the lapse rates will be solid to go along with good shear and cape...you know what this means...IT ALL TIMES CORRECTLY. I'm going to go into work and at least get an hour in. The radar can piss off. Epic rant! Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 New England severe threats are just a little more legitimate than prospects of snow in the coastal Carolinas. Beautiful late afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: New England severe threats are just a little more legitimate than prospects of snow in the coastal Carolinas. Beautiful late afternoon. pretty funny - ha. and true. buuut, i'm sure in ORH County circa 1953 they may have felt otherwise. word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Meltdowns aside, Wiz is right about the forcing aspect. It's just too dry aloft right now for localized convective initiation. We need sustained convergence to get an updraft to really go right now. Elevated heat source like terrain or a diffuse boundary won't cut it. But jet energy is starting to increase from the NW. We're seeing sustained convection where the red and purple overlap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said: Meltdowns aside, Wiz is right about the forcing aspect. It's just too dry aloft right now for localized convective initiation. We need sustained convergence to get an updraft to really go right now. Elevated heat source like terrain or a diffuse boundary won't cut it. But jet energy is starting to increase from the NW. We're seeing sustained convection where the red and purple overlap. it's interesting for me you posted this graphic... i've been watching the band of now glaciating TCU arcing ...collocated with that SW Quebec region, and wondering if that may 'unzip' (so to speak) and perhaps a right turning complex later on. There little rinky-dink red region in central VT could be the axis -extension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: it's interesting for me you posted this graphic... i've been watching the band of now glaciating TCU arcing ...collocated with that SW Quebec region, and wondering if that may 'unzip' (so to speak) and as perhaps a right turning complex later on. There little rinky-dink red region in central VT could be the axis -extension. I think eventually the convection may go the way of the shortwave, and pivot off to the east late tonight, but early on could be a SE moving complex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I think eventually the convection may go the way of the shortwave, and pivot off to the east late tonight, but early on could be a SE moving complex. i recall as an undergrad when we covered MCC's ... radiative cloud-top cooling ...particularly when the complex moves toward a llv inflow source of heat and dps, can get those to propagate along into a region otherwise devoid of triggers... wonder if this could be a scenario - hahah. we're desperately scraping for reason here - nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted July 22, 2016 Share Posted July 22, 2016 The NAM would argue for a regionwide severe event tomorrow. The GFS is much less bullish down this way with plenty of dry air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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