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July 2016 Discussions/Observations


Rtd208

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1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

Showering imby for pazt 2 hours at varying intensity..not a nice summer day...hoping the heat verifies in the future and we shift from this wet wet cloudy pattern of the past 3 weeks

weird day-not even  a cloud in the sky here and 82, that stuff is hitting a brick wall around NYC

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18Z has gone nuts for the period 7/22-28 and beyond perhaps.   90---102 predicted with a 24C 850mb.     What could have changed to cause this?     Are the backdoor cold fronts that have been saving us no longer able to form?     Major players looking the same in both oceans so I bet this is another aberration.   CFS weekly for the period keeps greatest heights in the mid-west and just normal here, so something is wrong.   Anyone know what the EURO weekly for the period is like?

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KORD

now compare this with Chicago where a 27C 850mb only produces an 85 2M max.!?  IPS MeteorStar is having a nervous breakdown.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The Euro keeps the mean ridge position over the Central US D 6-10 rather than the East. So if this pattern verifies, it will be more of the same

here with pieces of 90's heat periodically coming east but no excessive 100+ heat like we saw in July 2010-2013.

 

 

Bluewave do you have the EPS post 240?  I am curious if it follows the gfs/ensembles and migrates ridge east or west like EPS control runs.

 

00z ECM was west of  the 12z with the ridge axis, gfs 06z is back east for the period Jul 20 - 24

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For today's precipitation possibilities, the HRRR-15mins. puts us at the southern end of a ne---sw line of showers that are worse to our north and east.   Danger period here is indicated as 2PM-6PM.    However the HRRR-15 rarely scores a coup. lol.

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Compared to Chicago, NYC looks to stay in the mid 80's and very few 90's. Almost ready to buy a new hoodie soon. If the trough stays around for the next few months will be able to wear it soon. We look to dodge this heat event almost completely. Maybe Pittsburgh, DC and Philly get a couple of NW flow Derechos. We probably avoid these too. 

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51 minutes ago, Michael05192016 said:

Compared to Chicago, NYC looks to stay in the mid 80's and very few 90's. Almost ready to buy a new hoodie soon. If the trough stays around for the next few months will be able to wear it soon. We look to dodge this heat event almost completely. Maybe Pittsburgh, DC and Philly get a couple of NW flow Derechos. We probably avoid these too. 

Are you one of those guys who wears hoodies when it's 85 degrees out?

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 383 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 3 COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY ESSEX HUDSON UNION IN NEW YORK THIS WATCH INCLUDES 5 COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK BRONX KINGS (BROOKLYN) NEW YORK (MANHATTAN) QUEENS RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)

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