Jim Martin Posted June 22, 2016 Author Share Posted June 22, 2016 0z NAM just starting to come in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 First warning of many to come for our area in the next 30 hours. Just for the record. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 843 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA... SOUTHWESTERN APPANOOSE COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 930 PM CDT * AT 843 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CORYDON... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SEYMOUR...CINCINNATI...PROMISE CITY...NUMA AND PLANO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Really feeling like the midday mcs will be the main show for us up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 NCEP model site seems to have crashed. Anyone else having difficulty? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 NCEP model site seems to have crashed. Anyone else having difficulty? Try pivotal or tropical tidbits Large mcs over chicago mid afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knitwx Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Tor warning for Hettinger co North Dakota. Radar indicated Bismarck .N.D. wfo I know it's not our sub forum. Isn't this where our storms are coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 00z NAM right over me: http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?type=00|NAM|FLT|con|stp|24|41.91,-88.06|ml|severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Try pivotal or tropical tidbits Large mcs over chicago mid afternoon Thanks A-L-E-K. Was unaware of the site. Never really noticed the source of the images. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 NAM has rapid destabilization tomorrow also the warm front is further north this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Big supercell on 4k nam in Ogle county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 00z NAM right over me: http://climate.cod.edu/hanis/model/fsound/index.php?type=00|NAM|FLT|con|stp|24|41.91,-88.06|ml|severe Shear and helicity values are unbelievable with this incoming system. It won't take all that much CAPE to produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Really feeling like the midday mcs will be the main show for us up north Definitely a possibility. Southern areas look primed but the big question is how far north the better threat gets. Going to be the ultimate mesoanalysis/nowcast day for areas in/near the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Definitely a possibility. Southern areas look primed but the big question is how far north the better threat gets. Going to be the ultimate mesoanalysis/nowcast day for areas in/near the city. I think the main evening event is pretty much off the table up here Just trying to salvage some daytime garden variety at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 I think the main evening event is pretty much off the table up here Just trying to salvage some daytime garden variety at this point How far south do you think the WF will be? Are you saying central IL and IN will be more in play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The 0Z 4K NAM really doesnt have a "classic" MCS on it for tomorrow night, has multiple line segments some with bowing and hits IL/MI/IN/OH, including you Alex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 4 km run looks to me like it may be having some convective feedback issues...overdeepening the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The 0Z 4K NAM really doesnt have a "classic" MCS on it for tomorrow night, has multiple line segments some with bowing and hits IL/MI/IN/OH, including you Alex. It's elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Skilldog saying the earlier morning stuff going to be heading south through central Illinois. Sent from my XT1526 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 4 km run looks to me like it may be having some convective feedback issues...overdeepening the surface low. 6/30/14 all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 6/30/14 all over again. Then there's this forecast sounding near the surface low at 00z. Just look at the shear values on this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Can we get a sounding of the actual untapped environment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JasonOH Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Every sounding recently shown is contaminated, which means the sounding is useless. If the dew point line follows the temperature line exactly for a good portion of the forecast sounding, nothing in that area (if small) or the whole sounding is useful. The soundings do not represent what the environment will actually be. Edit: what Hoosier posted in the post after this one is an example of an uncontaminated sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Can we get a sounding of the actual untapped environment? Here's one farther southeast at the same time. Looks like some corn fed dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Here's one farther southeast at the same time. Looks like some corn fed dews. The environment upstream in the 00z OAX sounding and on mesoanalysis right now in E NE/W IA speaks to this kind of potential (of course with no storms to tap it). The former had a SCP over 50 and ridiculous veering with height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capbreak Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Every sounding recently shown is contaminated, which means the sounding is useless. If the dew point line follows the temperature line exactly for a good portion of the forecast sounding, nothing in that area (if small) or the whole sounding is useful. That seems legit, but how much can one rely on this? It'd be nice to have an idea at a quick glance instead of pulling up forecast reflectivity. A lot of the UH swaths posted look like they're north of the warm front. Are they truly north of it, or riding the front and still drawing in the good air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 The 0Z 4K NAM really doesnt have a "classic" MCS on it for tomorrow night, has multiple line segments some with bowing and hits IL/MI/IN/OH, including you Alex. It's elevated. If that. MUCAPE gradient doesn't get any further NE than a Milwaukee - Findlay, OH line (let alone the gradient for surface-based CAPE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Izzi evening update .... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL 857 PM CDT TUE JUN 21 2016 UPDATE 855 PM CDT CHALLENGING FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS FROUGHT WITH UNCERTAINTY. SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING HAS A WARM FRONT STRETCHING NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION, LOCATED ACROSS WC TO SE IL. TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN OUR CWA, VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WHILE SEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. VERY MOIST AIR MASS RESIDES NEAR THE BOUNDARY WHERE MID 70 DEWPOINTS ARE POOLING. HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN THE WAA REGIME JUST TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL IA AND WOULD EXPECT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS TO INCREASE TONIGHT AS 40KT+ LLJ RESULTS IN STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION. GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE WARM FRONT/INSTABILITY AXIS AND STEERING FLOW LARGELY FROM THE NW, WOULD EXPECT MAJORITY OF THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE SE INTO CENTRAL IL TONIGHT AND LARGELY MISS A GOOD MAJORITY OF OUR CWA. SOME OF THE LIGHTER MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY SPREAD INTO MAINLY OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MANY MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS WAA DRIVEN ACTIVITY COULD FESTER WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY ONLY GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTH. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRRX DEVELOP A HEALTHY COLD POOL THAT PUSHES THE EFFECTIVE OUTFLOW AUGMENTED FRONT FAR TO THE SOUTH...SOUTH OF I-70 EVEN BY MID-LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT THAT FRONT WILL BE THIS FAR SOUTH, BUT FIGURE WITH CLOUDS AND PROBABLY SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH A WIND OFF THE LAKE THAT TEMPS WILL BE COLDER TOMORROW THAN WE HAD GOING. HAVE KNOCKED TEMPS BACK SEVERAL DEGREES OVER ABOUT THE NE HALF OF OUR CWA AND EVEN THE MID-UPPER 70S IN THE GRIDS NOW MAY END UP BEING TOO WARM (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE). IT IS A TIME OF YEAR THAT WARM FRONTS CAN JUMP NORTH QUICKLY, AND THAT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT COULD END UP NEEDING TO BE EVENTUALLY SHIFTED SOUTH IF WAA DRIVEN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING IS AS EXTENSIVE AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 0z NAM looks like it hits me pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Can we get a sounding of the actual untapped environment? The 21Z soundings are fairly impressive and untapped, but the 4km NAM is the one with the least midday convection, and it has a general "dry" bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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