Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 This is why I don't even bother reading amwx any more. Bunch of fear mongering crap posts like this! Illinois has seen many tornado outbreaks and tomorrow is very unlikely to compare to them (unless if we get a violent tornado in an urban area). I agree about keeping the hype in check, but signing up after being banned just to make that post is kind of a waste of time. Just sayin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I agree about keeping the hype in check, but signing up after being banned just to make that post is kind of a waste of time. Just sayin.Which one of our great banned posters in the region was tornado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Which one of our great banned posters in the region was tornado?From the rant style I think he might be the Canadian guy who got banned after a massive rant.Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 the 12z HRRRX is an example of how rapid destabilization can occur behind the morning wave. gets the warm front to Chicago at 00z. it's entirely possible in this kind of setup since there should be a 6-hour period of subsidence behind that vort. should also note the 12z Euro is holding steady with the warm front staying well south but convective initiation still occurs over north central and northeast IL in the late afternoon/early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 the 12z HRRRX is an example of how rapid destabilization can occur behind the morning wave. gets the warm front to Chicago at 00z. it's entirely possible in this kind of setup since there should be a 6-hour period of subsidence behind that vort. should also note the 12z Euro is holding steady with the warm front staying well south but convective initiation still occurs over north central and northeast IL in the late afternoon/early evening. I've read that the HRRRX tends to perform better than the HRRR (granted we are still fairly far out). Is that true in your experience? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Who are you again?haha.Local met showed a model where warm front gets just north of 74 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I've barely used it beyond 8-10 hours, to be honest....can be atrocious some days even in the immediate term. Just wanted to throw out an example of how rapid destabilization has been modeled. It latches on to the Dakotas vort and races it through here by 16-17Z on its way southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I've barely used it beyond 8-10 hours, to be honest....can be atrocious some days even in the immediate term. Just wanted to throw out an example of how rapid destabilization has been modeled. It latches on to the Dakotas vort and races it through here by 16-17Z on its way southeast. I've noticed that the HRRR is good only in a specific timerange (about 6-10 hr out). Before/after that range it's pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I've noticed that the HRRR is good only in a specific timerange (about 6-10 hr out). Before/after that range it's pretty bad. yeah, i totally agree with this. they definitely are still having trouble initializing properly...especially when a convective event is ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I agree about keeping the hype in check, but signing up after being banned just to make that post is kind of a waste of time. Just sayin. And that seems like a lot of work as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 It might literally be May 3rd 99 in Illinois. Dangerous as dangerous can be. Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk I have family in the Chicago area (south burbs), is this a serious post? Very concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Still, he has a point. There's no good science (nothing scientific at all) in saying "May 3rd 99 in Illinois." If you want to hype the hell out of this stuff...Please, take to twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Anyone chasing tomorrow? I'm planning on taking 24 over to Northern IN to possibly Warsaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I have family in the Chicago area (south burbs), is this a serious post? Very concerned. Just have them be vigilant and watch out for storms on any other elevated risk day. It's not projected to be an "apocalypse day", but it's definitely something to mention to them at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 yeah, i totally agree with this. they definitely are still having trouble initializing properly...especially when a convective event is ongoing. I've also found esp. with bubbly/pulse convection, the HRRR has a huge issue with over convecting events. Where the amount of convection modeled is at least 2 or 3 times the amount realized. Seems to be much worse of an issue when convection is already ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 re:hrrrx from earlier this spring http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gsd/learn/hotitems/2016/hrrrx.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Still, he has a point. There's no good science (nothing scientific at all) in saying "May 3rd 99 in Illinois." If you want to hype the hell out of this stuff...Please, take to twitter. It was a figure of speech, I meant it had the potential to be this areas event like that from the NAM soundings which no one takes at face value, not literally a repeat tornado outbreak.I have family in the Chicago area (south burbs), is this a serious post? Very concerned.If you would take the NAM at face value yes, but this would probably be weak tornadoes embedded in the MCS type situation for Chicago Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Anyone chasing tomorrow? I'm planning on taking 24 over to Northern IN to possibly Warsaw depending on the warm front I'm thinking the Bloomington/Pontiac area in IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Just have them be vigilant and watch out for storms on any other elevated risk day. It's not projected to be an "apocalypse day", but it's definitely something to mention to them at least. overall coverage across the CWA doesn't necessarily look all the great but the potential for a strong tornado, especially in southwest suburban metro area is legit it only takes one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Forecast soundings and hodographs for wherever the WF is tomorrow on any given model are just insane. Pure weather porn. It is not just at 00Z either, as early as 18-21Z we see an environment that is very conducive to all modes of SVR wx. Given the current progged wind fields along w/ instability, anything that is discrete is likely going to be an absolute beast of a storm. With the cap that is expected to be in place, I see no reason not to expect a few discrete supercells for, at the very least, a couple hours before bowing out. Are we seriously calling this weather porn when several major cities are under the gun? Come on now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Anyone chasing tomorrow? I'm planning on taking 24 over to Northern IN to possibly WarsawMight go a few counties to the west of here to chase anything that comes across the lake.Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Are we seriously calling this weather porn when several major cities are under the gun? Come on now. Let's not have the morality debate for the umpteenth time. And it's not like he said "yes, some big towns are getting slammed with tornadoes!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 overall coverage across the CWA doesn't necessarily look all the great but the potential for a strong tornado, especially in southwest suburban metro area is legit it only takes one Talked with my uncle earlier, he's in north metro so looking less severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Let's not have the morality debate for the umpteenth time. And it's not like he said "yes, some big towns are getting slammed with tornadoes!" extreme forkyfork voice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Let's not have the morality debate for the umpteenth time. And it's not like he said "yes, some big towns are getting slammed with tornadoes!" You know full well that I don't enjoy that debate, but that poster really has a history of not choosing his words wisely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Are we seriously calling this weather porn when several major cities are under the gun? Come on now. Andy I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on SPC's wording of "strong unidirectional flow." I'd beg to differ that we may see a longer duration of discrete to semi discrete storms, especially if we get more of a NW component to the H3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Anyone chasing tomorrow? I'm planning on taking 24 over to Northern IN to possibly Warsaw Thinking of heading down from Wisconsin. Initial target thought is Sterling, Illinois but may go westward into Iowa depending on how things are looking in the morning. Of course this all might change completely once the overnight convection has its effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Might go a few counties to the west of here to chase anything that comes across the lake. i honestly could see sw lower michigan seeing nothing more than stratiform rain with intracloud lightning. don't waste the gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I can remember only reading a handful of SPC discussions where "explosive" is mentioned DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATEDWITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW/ARE EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THIS CONVECTIVE-INHIBITION BY LATEAFTERNOON...WITH EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT LIKELY ONCE THIS OCCURS.MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NEAR THE TRIPLEPOINT. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFTROTATION WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE. GREATEST TORNADO THREATWILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE BACKED SURFACE WINDSARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Andy I'd be curious to hear your thoughts on SPC's wording of "strong unidirectional flow." I'd beg to differ that we may see a longer duration of discrete to semi discrete storms, especially if we get more of a NW component to the H3. That's egregious. This is not your classic unidirectional flow pattern ala the 6/29-30/12 derecho. I mentioned yesterday that could be one of the things that prevents this from turning into a full blown derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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