andyhb Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Most likely punt formation until the murky waters clear up. I mean has anything really changed that could push them one way or another from last night (other than some run to run consistency)? Maybe a greater consensus on a significant threat to Chicagoland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Nice sheet lightning show to my n/nw here in the Indpls area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Maybe a greater consensus on a significant threat to Chicagoland? Worst nightmare is probably upgrade tonight, to drop it later because of overnight convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I think SPC will wait till Wed. and increase incrementally due to mesoscale factors like on May 3, 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Worst nightmare is probably upgrade tonight, to drop it later because of overnight convection. I will say this though, they should up the wording even if they don't upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 21, 2016 Author Share Posted June 21, 2016 I will say this though, they should up the wording even if they don't upgrade. I agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I will say this though, they should up the wording even if they don't upgrade. That's totally fair game. Start banging the drum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Complicated setup. With strong instability and very strong wind fields...along with favorable large scale ascent in the right-entrance quad of a jet streak departing to the east...I have to think the potential exists for any initial activity late Wednesday afternoon/early evening to quickly grow upscale into a potentially high-end MCS that propagates ESE. IIRC, 0-1km shear of 30+ knots is favorable for a substantial non-mesocyclone tornado risk with linear convection, and the models currently support that much low level shear Wednesday night. The big questions to me are what happens behind the Wednesday AM MCS and where the potential Wednesday night MCS tracks. With strong wind fields, very deep moisture and en EML plume advecting in, I expect quick recovery behind the Wednesday AM MCS. Based on the nose of the LLJ and MUCAPE gradient, I can see the AM MCS in central or SE IL by 12z Wednesday, with possibly some elevated activity farther N-NW on the nose of the LLJ. This should shift east/SE quickly enough for decent recovery for new storms in northern IL/southern WI by late Wednesday afternoon. The initial storm mode will probably be supercellular, but with good large scale ascent and a ton of instability along with a strong LLJ, I have to expect activity to quickly grow upscale. The thickness contours are oriented NW-SE which suggests the MCS may dive towards Indianapolis and Cincinnati...although the mean winds are oriented more W-E, the nose of the LLJ and MUCAPE gradient end up much farther NE of there...into far southern MI towards Lake Erie or even SW Ontario depending on the model. 700mb temps also get quite warm south of I-80. So it'll be interesting to see how successfully the MCS turns right, assuming it develops. If it develops it could feature a fairly robust severe threat. If the NAM/GFS are right and the surface low gets into southern MI and Ontario, there'd be a surface based storm threat into southern MI and at least into northern OH. The question would be in the MCS dives south and possibly limits activity farther north. A lot of uncertainty but this could be interesting. I have no shot at getting off work Wednesday so I won't be chasing regardless, and am just hoping the MCS doesn't whiff me to the SW in Cleveland and leave me storm-free. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I will say this though, they should up the wording even if they don't upgrade. I wouldn't be surprised if they do or don't upgrade but I totally agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I say they wait to upgrade, too many fuzzy details Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Unless there's a shift change, Jewell will be doing the d2 and has continuity from last night when he already went with the large 30% hatched and strong wording. Could see him going d2 MDT at 06z though there's plenty of valid reasons to hold off mentioned above. I will say that the parameter space and soundings from the models this afternoon and evening are the most threatening for the heart of the Chicago metro since at least 11/17/13, if not since I arrived out here in July 2010. I'm leaning toward thinking that the morning/mid day stuff won't lower the magnitude at all of the next round, just affect placement if anything. The dynamics are high end, similar and probably more so than 6/22/15 and the morning MCS that day also served to modulate the location but not magnitude later, given the prolific HP supercell that developed. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Also thinking they will expand the risks north for all the obvious model reasons from today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Also thinking they will expand the risks north for all the obvious model reasons from today I have a hard time believing that we'll see much of a shift north on the outlook. That is one of the biggest question marks with this event, so I have a hard time seeing them having confidence in moving it very far north of where it is since any morning convection can easily shift this all a fair amount south. Just look at the event RC mentioned with 6/22/15. We've had an event every June for the last 3 years that has had some of these higher end parameters, 6/12/13, 6/30/14, 6/22/15. That 6/30/14 event was impressive and is often overlooked. I believe RC and Tony did some surveys for that one. I think this one goes right along with those and we see some impressive severe weather in this area. I'm still hedging a bit south of the Chicago area, but we won't really know that until the early stuff Wednesday comes through. I'm really intrigued by the potential for this one even if it isn't a supercell event because any MCS that forms could bring all hazards along with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Nice writeup OHweather. Unless there's a shift change, Jewell will be doing the d2 and has continuity from last night when he already went with the large 30% hatched and strong wording. Could see him going d2 MDT at 06z though there's plenty of valid reasons to hold off mentioned above. I will say that the parameter space and soundings from the models this afternoon and evening are the most threatening for the heart of the Chicago metro since at least 11/17/13, if not since I arrived out here in July 2010. I'm leaning toward thinking that the morning/mid day stuff won't lower the magnitude at all of the next round, just affect placement if anything. The dynamics are high end, similar and probably more so than 6/22/15 and the morning MCS that day also served to modulate the location but not magnitude later, given the prolific HP supercell that developed. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Went back and looked at 6/22/15. That event had some impressive parameters but I'd say Wednesday looks better, especially low level shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louieloy102 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Cautiously optimistic over here. Hopefully the instability doesn't destroy any storms a la 6/22/15. I'm also interested in the possible flooding parameters with near-record PWAT values forecasted despite the fast-moving storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 This was the 00z DVN sounding from last year, very nasty hodograph for late June (or really anytime of year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I have a hard time believing that we'll see much of a shift north on the outlook. That is one of the biggest question marks with this event, so I have a hard time seeing them having confidence in moving it very far north of where it is since any morning convection can easily shift this all a fair amount south. Just look at the event RC mentioned with 6/22/15. We've had an event every June for the last 3 years that has had some of these higher end parameters, 6/12/13, 6/30/14, 6/22/15. That 6/30/14 event was impressive and is often overlooked. I believe RC and Tony did some surveys for that one. I think this one goes right along with those and we see some impressive severe weather in this area. I'm still hedging a bit south of the Chicago area, but we won't really know that until the early stuff Wednesday comes through. I'm really intrigued by the potential for this one even if it isn't a supercell event because any MCS that forms could bring all hazards along with it. That 6/30/14 event was a ridiculous QLCS tornado producer, especially since a derecho moved across some of the same area not that long before which would normally hurt severe chances. RC, Tony, and some other people did a good paper about why that second derecho was able to produce so many tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I should say that DVN sounding reminds me a lot of some of the forecast shear profiles we're seeing in the soundings for this one. I honestly think there was a major bullet dodged that day since there was only one supercell that ended up really going off (and the early MCS cut some areas off). 400 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH with adequate MLCAPE is not something that comes around too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 That 6/30/14 event was a ridiculous QLCS tornado producer, especially since a derecho moved across some of the same area not that long before which would normally hurt severe chances. RC, Tony, and some other people did a good paper about why that second derecho was able to produce so many tornadoes. Yea that was a heck of an event. We've had some impressive June setups recently, and this one has the potential to join those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I should say that DVN sounding reminds me a lot of some of the forecast shear profiles we're seeing in the soundings for this one. I honestly think there was a major bullet dodged that day since there was only one supercell that ended up really going off (and the early MCS cut some areas off). 400 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH with adequate MLCAPE is not something that comes around too often. That supercell was a monster. I remember at one point while watching it from the south side how insufferable the humidity felt as the inflow winds ripped into it. Can't remember ever feeling air so insufferable like that before, even in the midst of other HP beasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 That 6/30/14 event was a ridiculous QLCS tornado producer, especially since a derecho moved across some of the same area not that long before which would normally hurt severe chances. RC, Tony, and some other people did a good paper about why that second derecho was able to produce so many tornadoes.That event had lower and mid level wind fields along the lines of what models have been showing for Wednesday. This is a modified AMDAR sounding from MDW based off storm motion. Unreal SRH supportive of the prolific tornado production, but big difference was much weaker anvil level flow vs. 70+ kt h3 flow being shown for Weds. That sufficient venting aloft could be an argument in favor of at least initial discrete activity among other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjc3395 Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Complicated setup. With strong instability and very strong wind fields...along with favorable large scale ascent in the right-entrance quad of a jet streak departing to the east...I have to think the potential exists for any initial activity late Wednesday afternoon/early evening to quickly grow upscale into a potentially high-end MCS that propagates ESE. IIRC, 0-1km shear of 30+ knots is favorable for a substantial non-mesocyclone tornado risk with linear convection, and the models currently support that much low level shear Wednesday night. The big questions to me are what happens behind the Wednesday AM MCS and where the potential Wednesday night MCS tracks. With strong wind fields, very deep moisture and en EML plume advecting in, I expect quick recovery behind the Wednesday AM MCS. Based on the nose of the LLJ and MUCAPE gradient, I can see the AM MCS in central or SE IL by 12z Wednesday, with possibly some elevated activity farther N-NW on the nose of the LLJ. This should shift east/SE quickly enough for decent recovery for new storms in northern IL/southern WI by late Wednesday afternoon. The initial storm mode will probably be supercellular, but with good large scale ascent and a ton of instability along with a strong LLJ, I have to expect activity to quickly grow upscale. The thickness contours are oriented NW-SE which suggests the MCS may dive towards Indianapolis and Cincinnati...although the mean winds are oriented more W-E, the nose of the LLJ and MUCAPE gradient end up much farther NE of there...into far southern MI towards Lake Erie or even SW Ontario depending on the model. 700mb temps also get quite warm south of I-80. So it'll be interesting to see how successfully the MCS turns right, assuming it develops. If it develops it could feature a fairly robust severe threat. If the NAM/GFS are right and the surface low gets into southern MI and Ontario, there'd be a surface based storm threat into southern MI and at least into northern OH. The question would be in the MCS dives south and possibly limits activity farther north. A lot of uncertainty but this could be interesting. I have no shot at getting off work Wednesday so I won't be chasing regardless, and am just hoping the MCS doesn't whiff me to the SW in Cleveland and leave me storm-free. I know time of year and overall pattern may suggest linear stuff, but I'm struggling to wrap my head around i . Strong vertical shear that is also veering, great low level moisture, relatively steep lapse rates given location, height rises/no real height falls/mid level warming (there is no real mid level cooling or large scale ascent outside of the warm front WAA regime)... I am struggling to see, aside from the cold front, what particularly screams MCS/Derecho. This isn't a strongly forced trough we're dealing with, aside from perhaps a strong jet providing forcing for ascent. There are no real height falls, at least from what I saw earlier. Was inferred that warming was taking place earlie . Perhaps 00z changed it up a little. So you have strong shear, lapse rates/instability that I would guess is in the upper end of what this region typically sees in severe/tor producing environments... You have lift, but you also have capping/no really strong height falls... And finally, you have moisture. I tend to think this will be more of a supercellular event than some seem to currently think but I may just be missing something. Of course the cold front could have something to say about everything and the warm front could get messy... Even with a linear mode I think there are going to be embedded supercells capable of producing tornadoes. Easily a moderate risk setup if ATM recovers behind morning activity. Just my opinion and I have not sat down to really interrogate dat . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Outlook being discussed now. Sounds like it could go either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Outlook being discussed now. Sounds like it could go either way. Any word on if they will put general thunder around there? (saw your post in the New England subforum ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Any word on if they will put general thunder around there? (saw your post in the New England subforum ) I think we'll still be shut out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Unless there's a shift change, Jewell will be doing the d2 and has continuity from last night when he already went with the large 30% hatched and strong wording. Could see him going d2 MDT at 06z though there's plenty of valid reasons to hold off mentioned above. I will say that the parameter space and soundings from the models this afternoon and evening are the most threatening for the heart of the Chicago metro since at least 11/17/13, if not since I arrived out here in July 2010. I'm leaning toward thinking that the morning/mid day stuff won't lower the magnitude at all of the next round, just affect placement if anything. The dynamics are high end, similar and probably more so than 6/22/15 and the morning MCS that day also served to modulate the location but not magnitude later, given the prolific HP supercell that developed. Sent from my SM-G935V using Tapatalk Agree with everything here. I do definitely think if the models hold serve it will be MDT tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 First look at some of the high res stuff that is just getting to 00z Wed and it's not pretty, especially the NMMB with just a huge cell/cluster of cells near the WI/IL border on a trajectory to take it right towards Chicagoland (within an extremely favorable environment for tornadoes I might add). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted June 21, 2016 Author Share Posted June 21, 2016 Day 2 moderate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 SPC goes with a large D2 MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Wow, that is a strongly worded outlook too. I'm actually a touch surprised how far north it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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