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Winter Storm March 1st-2nd (Part 2)

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Chicago O'Hare reports -RA and 30 degrees F. Shouldn't it be more like -FZRA?

 

Yeah...

Things are snowy, icy here, but it is 5° colder too.

 

---

 

Thanks for posting that NWLinnCounty

 

GFS trying to get a band going over Hoosier tomorrow.

 

acckucherasnowmw.png

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Chicago O'Hare reports -RA and 30 degrees F. Shouldn't it be more like -FZRA?

Yes it should be.

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It will be soon, snowing on the north side of Kenosha now.

 

25° now.

 

 

Thanks for the update in Kenosha.. nothing here when i went to load stuff in the car 5 mins ago.

 

 

Edit: just looked out  of the corner of my eye and it's very light snow at 9:45

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If I was in WNY or N OH I'd be beside myself right now.

 

Absolutely. I would be pretty devastated. You don't expect that dramatic of a change 24 hours out.

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GFS blasting Toronto. I think it's time for you guys to gas up the snowblowers.

 

acckucherasnowne.png

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Absolutely. I would be pretty devastated. You don't expect that dramatic of a change 24 hours out.

At least for NW OH is still getting love from the GFS. Hope the other major models follow.

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I'm not sure I buy the Kuchera ratio, I think it's a bit too generous.

 

The GFS following both the RGEM and NAM is kind of shocking with this northerly tick of the snow swath.

 

At this point, I can secretly hope for this latest shift being overestimated, and a resultant hybrid between the earlier solutions and this solution... that is, pummelling Toronto.

 

Regardless, as long as the trend doesn't veer further north, I think we should be okay...

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I'm not sure I buy the Kuchera ratio, I think it's a bit too generous.

 

The GFS following both the RGEM and NAM is kind of shocking with this northerly tick of the snow swath.

 

At this point, I can secretly hope for this latest shift being overestimated, and a resultant hybrid between the earlier solutions and this solution... that is, pummelling Toronto.

 

Regardless, as long as the trend doesn't veer further north, I think we should be okay...

 

I agree. That's a 16:1 ratio on 0.88" liquid. Probably a bit too generous.

 

Well time for bed. Hopefully things fall into place tomorrow.

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At least for NW OH is still getting love from the GFS. Hope the other major models follow.

Crossing my fingers for you! I'd rather have the GFS on my side than the bumbling NAM or the not-much-of-a GEM.

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What the heck picture is that? Lol looking forward to seeing some snow pictures from you.

Hahaha that picture deserves the top spot in the winter 2015-2016 hall of fame! Seriously.

Steady snow here now. Half inch of sleet/snow down. At least we won't have to deal with a sleet pack for another month with the warm pattern coming up. Dual pol radar south of here still looks sketchy.

post-1345-0-82872700-1456804232_thumb.pn

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A little colder than the NAM and RGEM, especially south of us.

 

The lower snowfall amounts locally seem to be attributed to both a reduction in QPF and warmer thermals.

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Switched to light flurries with VERY occasional drop of freezing drizzle. Given reflectivity values I'd say not all of it is hitting the ground yet. More snowflakes then rain drops. No sleet.

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Yeah...

Things are snowy, icy here, but it is 5° colder too.

 

---

 

Thanks for posting that NWLinnCounty

 

GFS trying to get a band going over Hoosier tomorrow.

 

acckucherasnowmw.png

 

 

NAM not playing along here, but you can see it's trying.  21z SREF mean actually went up a bit here but still a wild spread all over the place.  Fluctuations in the details will mean some nowcasting tomorrow but overall I think I'd still favor a couple inches imby...could be more could be less. 

 

Edit:  GFS has those amounts with like .25" of qpf as freezing rain here.

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Best snow is when im sleeping - and then i get to join the knuckleheads on the road to work :(  Good luck to the rest of you. Cool stuff to the east NE.

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Chicago O'Hare reports -RA and 30 degrees F. Shouldn't it be more like -FZRA?

 

 

Here it is

...

KORD 010351Z 06014G21KT 10SM -FZRA FEW017 SCT045 OVC055 M02/M05 A3003 RMKAO2 RAE11FZRAB39SNB11E39 SLP175 P0000 I1000 T10171050

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After the heavier bit of snow moved out, it actually went back to sleet

Same here. 100% pingers. Weird storm, can't kick that warm layer. Cool to watch the loop on dual pol though.

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