snowfan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 So ugly. By 90, everyone east of the BR is above freezing and ready for rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 when Matt doesn't make the first Euro posts, you always know what that means Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Europe vs North America model war... It's not a war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 wow its west and warm. Changes Erie to rain lol. Even upstate NY. You have to get to north central Ohio to Toronto to northwest of Montreal to stay snow and its not even that significant. The 850 0 line kinda runs along the northwest fringe of heavy precip. Some light to moderate snows along the NW fringe but nothing to excite anyone. Euro is just a big rainstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Again, just like the Ukie, the northern stream jumps in and says "come to papa" http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's not a war. Disagreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Everyone caves too early. Doesn't mean it's right..NAM is way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro is a rock. My rock. lol, I told GG that it's best to probably ride the Euro. I'd say he's not a fan I'd hate to get your hopes up, esp. since this Euro solution is at least consistent with the last run, but... I'd disagree... I'd be inclined to go with the GFS/GEM/NAM. The Euro has been an utter joke on winter storms for three years in a row. Don't let its decent performance on canes fool you. The NOGAPS has been better on winter storms than this trashy model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Euro is pushing temps to near 60 on the eastern shore and se va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 watch that back side low....it's pretty strong too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 when Matt doesn't make the first Euro posts, you always know what that means I wish they had a middle finger smiley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 So, this isn't the low/high placement that we want to see? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 lol, I told GG that it's best to probably ride the Euro. I'd say he's not a fan lol. I love the BS people throw with the Euro when it doesn't show what they want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Not my favorite run of the day. I'm surprised it dried out on the front side though. Looked better leading in. Oh well. The way everything else moved today, along with the idea that as we get closer maybe it sees the effect of the cold better, I really did think it would show at least some improvement, and instead it took a dump all over us. I am shocked it is this bad, and also this divergent from other guidance. It looks like a totally different storm then the one on the GGEM/GFS. A warm amped up rain storm all the way to NW PA at the same time we are snowing on some other guidance and were not 7 days away anymore. Euro does tend to over amp sometimes but either the GGEM/GFS are really missing something or the euro is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 lol. I love the BS people throw with the Euro when it doesn't show what they want. well, it does suck this run soooo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 It's an outlier and it's being discontinued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Hoping the Euro twins are fraternal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 storm gets so strong it kills the back side vort double screwgy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 wow its west and warm. Changes Erie to rain lol. Even upstate NY. You have to get to north central Ohio to Toronto to northwest of Montreal to stay snow and its not even that significant. The 850 0 line kinda runs along the northwest fringe of heavy precip. Some light to moderate snows along the NW fringe but nothing to excite anyone. Euro is just a big rainstorm.Absolutely crazy. Why does something tell that ain't gonna verify completely? Doesn't that seem a little TOO extreme? (As in not giving us even a few hours of mixing?) So essentially...It's the warmest scenario of the EURO vs. the middle ground solutions of the other models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The way everything else moved today, along with the idea that as we get closer maybe it sees the effect of the cold better, I really did think it would show at least some improvement, and instead it took a dump all over us. I am shocked it is this bad, and also this divergent from other guidance. It looks like a totally different storm then the one on the GGEM/GFS. A warm amped up rain storm all the way to NW PA at the same time we are snowing on some other guidance and were not 7 days away anymore. Euro does tend to over amp sometimes but either the GGEM/GFS are really missing something or the euro is. Seemed to cross my imaginary west goal post so I'm pretty surprised at the run as well. Definitely not going to toss it though. Could easily be right in a general more warm, wet, and west track than the gfs/cmc's idea. Heh. We do fail biters well here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I know it will probably be right but again bit of outlier...maybe we should looks at NAM and GFS at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 storm gets so strong it kills the back side vort double screwgy I think ORH nailed why this run is so ugly: You can see why the Euro goes crazy...that trailing s/w actually gets too close and the thing basically does a phase with it so it tears the storm N with a sharp left turn. The flatter solutions keep them more spaced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 lol, I told GG that it's best to probably ride the Euro. I'd say he's not a fan Thanks for the relay Randy. Nice to get his input. I won't dismiss the euro so easily, but what he said made me think back storm to storm the last 2 winters at least, and when I go back over them storm by storm, (at least the ones i can remember) yea the euro was pretty bad at least for a few runs at some point in the days leading up to them. Still, its not like its just a little off...its WAY off...and it gives me pause that usually a compromise when you get something like this is the way to go, but a compromise here really doesnt work for us. We dont have much wiggle room for any west adjustment from the GFS/GGEM. Still its possible the euro over phases the northern branch and that one thing leads it way off course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Again, just like the Ukie, the northern stream jumps in and says "come to papa" http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h96&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest more progressive has been winning 90% of the time this winter, lets hope that trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 lol. I love the BS people throw with the Euro when it doesn't show what they want. I think he's a pretty objective forecaster though. But yeah, I'm not sure I wanna go against the king. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Thanks for the relay Randy. Nice to get his input. I won't dismiss the euro so easily, but what he said made me think back storm to storm the last 2 winters at least, and when I go back over them storm by storm, (at least the ones i can remember) yea the euro was pretty bad at least for a few runs at some point in the days leading up to them. Still, its not like its just a little off...its WAY off...and it gives me pause that usually a compromise when you get something like this is the way to go, but a compromise here really doesnt work for us. We dont have much wiggle room for any west adjustment from the GFS/GGEM. Still its possible the euro over phases the northern branch and that one thing leads it way off course. I mean, like I said he's pretty objective and not some weenie, so I am interested in his thoughts. He's just suspicious because every piece of guidance is sort of south/suppressed a bit and the Euro is on it's own (although I think the UKMET was wrapped too). I'm just the messenger folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Thanks for the relay Randy. Nice to get his input. I won't dismiss the euro so easily, but what he said made me think back storm to storm the last 2 winters at least, and when I go back over them storm by storm, (at least the ones i can remember) yea the euro was pretty bad at least for a few runs at some point in the days leading up to them. Still, its not like its just a little off...its WAY off...and it gives me pause that usually a compromise when you get something like this is the way to go, but a compromise here really doesnt work for us. We dont have much wiggle room for any west adjustment from the GFS/GGEM. Still its possible the euro over phases the northern branch and that one thing leads it way off course. Yeah, like when it gave me 6" for the blizzard. It only missed by 33". Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 more progressive has been winning 90% of the time this winter, lets hope that trend continues. It'll end up a compromise between the two camps as they sit now imho. I'd be real surprised if the NAM, GFS, and GEM were all so badly on crack. OTOH, the Ukie seems like more of a compromise, albeit closer to the Euro probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 just to clear up some things I posted earlier, later in the storms progression it bombs out over central PA and pulls cold air in on the back side and then dumps on NW PA into western NY with wrap around. After rain they end up with 1-2 feet of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Models have not worked for last two events and this stringy multi low set up moving into arctic air they cannot handle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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