stormtracker Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I think the possibility of the rare rain to snow coastal is there. WAA could be all rain but flip to snow when the ccb gets going. Op model runs will only cause a joy/pain roller coaster for the balance of this week. Further north has a lot more to get excited about imo. That's up there with wrap-around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Wasn't the storm of 1888 a rain to heavy snow event? I can't remember back that far ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 AO is going downhill though You think everytime there is a low anywhere within 1,000 miles of the east coast from October to April is going to produce a NYC snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I agree with the rest of you about the established cold. But if we were going to do well in bomb bringing in its own cold this is the setup for it. We dont have the NAO. But the MJO looks to be solidly into phase 7 heading towards 8. Thats a pretty good signal for a snowstorm. And a negative AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 GFS is suppressed...this might be a good thing. High moves in at the right time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 GFS is suppressed...this might be a good thing. High moves in at the right time I would think that in a setup where cutting or all rain is a possibility, a suppressed storm is 100x better than a cutter 8 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Important thing is....there's a storm signal still there..and it won't take much for us to "get it right". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 That's up there with wrap-around. ...and the I-81 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Important thing is....there's a storm signal still there..and it won't take much for us to "get it right". Randy, what are you trying to do being all rational and level headed in here??? Don't you know how this works. Let me fix this.... Before 12z runs: OMG were going to get another HECS, this is amazing, 20" coming, DID YOU SEE THE GGEM HOLY SMOKES!!!! After 12z Op runs: Winters over, we had all our winter in 1 day, this sucks, yesterday doesn't count because it rained right after, I wish this winter had never happened, why was I even born After peeking at the GGEM and GFS ensembles: holy crap did you see the ensembles, biggest storm signal EVER, HECS on the way, this winter ROCKS!!!! Oh and one more thing: NE MD PUMMELED, DESTROYED, CRUSHED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 In seriousness the GFS and Euro being a bit suppressed right now is not the end of the world when we are working with a -EPO,-AO, but bad NAO pattern. That ridging to our northeast looks to stay put so storms are likely to trend west in this pattern. Look what happened when things looked good from 10 days out for this last storm. West is the bigger threat to me then OTS so let some of the op runs show a storm to our southeast at this point. I couldn't care less what the GGEM shows and anyone who does, especially at this range, might want to seek counseling. The GGEM ensembles are a decent tool but the op is pretty bad. The 12z GGEM and GEFS ensembles still both have a healthy storm signal with an offshore track, good qpf signal at that range, and the 850 line hanging around just to our southeast. We have enough working for us EPO, PNA, AO, to think this has a decent chance like Randy said. That atlantic ridge is troublesome and keeps this from being a GREAT setup but if we can get the trough axis a little better this time, more ridging out west and get things to amplify a bit further east that can actually work for us and get it up the coast. It will be a thread the needle though since there is nothing to hold the high in so we have less wiggle room with track. If it starts to cut up west it wont be forced under us it will keep going. Still its worth keeping an eye on, besides its not like were not going to anyway sick twisted fools that we are. ETA: we are always chasing that perfect pattern, and its true that many of our real big ones, like snowzilla, come about from those perfect setups, but a vast majority of our run of the mill 6" snowstorms, and even a fair number of our HECS storms like PDII, come from a decent but flawed pattern. Sometimes you just have to have a little luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Randy, what are you trying to do being all rational and level headed in here??? Don't you know how this works. Let me fix this.... Before 12z runs: OMG were going to get another HECS, this is amazing, 20" coming, DID YOU SEE THE GGEM HOLY SMOKES!!!! After 12z Op runs: Winters over, we had all our winter in 1 day, this sucks, yesterday doesn't count because it rained right after, I wish this winter had never happened, why was I even born After peeking at the GGEM and GFS ensembles: holy crap did you see the ensembles, biggest storm signal EVER, HECS on the way, this winter ROCKS!!!! Oh and one more thing: NE MD PUMMELED, DESTROYED, CRUSHED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Pretty much nailed the cycle here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 #4 is a lock I think but 10 & 1 would be acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 #4 is a lock I think but 10 & 1 would be acceptable gefssneaux.JPG pretty much all of nothing, very little in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 pretty much all of nothing, very little in between Looks awful familiar doesn't it? Yea, the ridge in the west is better on the means but who knows. This is not great setup. It could work but best to hedge fail until we're a lot closer in. OTOH- the period after that starts to look more interesting. Something like this would have a much better chance at having a decent MA snowstorm. Atlantic looks much better. There's actually confluence showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 pretty much all of nothing, very little in between Go big or go home right? Should be an interesting week of model waffling ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz299 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Wasn't the storm of 1888 a rain to heavy snow event? I can't remember back that far ;-) From Wikipedia: "The weather preceding the blizzard was unseasonably mild with heavy rains that turned to snow as temperatures dropped rapidly."" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 pretty much all of nothing, very little in between Were getting to that time of year where unless you have a really good airmass that's going to be true. Get a strong enough storm to track well and dynamic cooling will take care of it, a weak storm or bad track isnt going to work out. So what that ensemble is showing might be what were looking at, a low chance at an event, but a chance at a significant one if it does work out. One thing to factor in, the ensembles are having issues with which sw to key on, as they will from this kind of range, but almost all of them do eventually develop something along the east coast in the day 7-10 time period, just some do it day 7 and some day 10. I wouldn't worry about the suppressed idea though, this qpf signal is pretty strong and pretty far west for an OTS solution. Temps are going to be our issue here. But we have had setups like this work out, plenty of times for a moderate event somewhere, the last time I can think of that it REALLY worked out big was Feb 2006. That storm has so much wrong with the setup but the track and intensity was perfect. Hey someone is going to get the perfect track why not us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 If you're going to get rain to snow it's often late season. But I dunno what we're talking about otherwise. Agree with Bob.. pattern does try to rollover fariyl nicely. I think that early-mid March zone is probably the better look and prob final zone for anything of consequence this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 In good news this next "window" doesn't look transient to me. Actually I kinda like the day 15 look even better. Get the STJ going to our south and the ridging starts to build into eastern canada a bit more. Its not a cold pattern but it could be just "cold enough" with a storm coming up along the coast and better chance to get a high in a good spot with that pattern. I dont think this is a one shot and done thing, I think we are heading into an extended period where we would have a shot at a late season storm. Maybe feb 24-march 10 kinda thing. Probably will be several shots in that window and just have to get a little lucky and maybe one hits. I think our chances of snow are above normal for that time of year. ETA: Ninja'd by Bob and Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Looks awful familiar doesn't it? Yea, the ridge in the west is better on the means but who knows. This is not great setup. It could work but best to hedge fail until we're a lot closer in. OTOH- the period after that starts to look more interesting. Something like this would have a much better chance at having a decent MA snowstorm. Atlantic looks much better. There's actually confluence showing up. Agree 100 percent, you beat me too it again as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 In good news this next "window" doesn't look transient to me. Actually I kinda like the day 15 look even better. Get the STJ going to our south and the ridging starts to build into eastern canada a bit more. Its not a cold pattern but it could be just "cold enough" with a storm coming up along the coast and better chance to get a high in a good spot with that pattern. I dont think this is a one shot and done thing, I think we are heading into an extended period where we would have a shot at a late season storm. Maybe feb 24-march 10 kinda thing. Probably will be several shots in that window and just have to get a little lucky and maybe one hits. I think our chances of snow are above normal for that time of year. ETA: Ninja'd by Bob and Ian I'm gonna keep it simple in the long range. Both of my decent snow accumulations came out of a -AO this winter. AO looks to be going negative one more time, so I expect one more decent storm in the next 10-15 days. Will be interesting to see if we can go 3 for 3 on -AOs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 If you're going to get rain to snow it's often late season. But I dunno what we're talking about otherwise. Agree with Bob.. pattern does try to rollover fariyl nicely. I think that early-mid March zone is probably the better look and prob final zone for anything of consequence this winter. This 5 day MSLP is at odds with the EPS (at least for now) but you can't really just toss the idea because we haven't had "real" blocking pressure patterns in both the AO/NAO domain space all year. The interesting thing about the GEFS is it's building pressure/heights through the period. It's not particularly cold on the means but I'm not sure that matters much. The general idea has me interested. The persistent +pna/epo could drive cold highs out of canada and the high latitudes could potentially let them sprawl across across SE canada. I know you've been thinking early March has been a potential window for basically months. Now that we are drawing into that range we are starting to see some early signs that it may very well happen. Like PSU just said, multiple chances are very important. Hit and run sucks. Especially getting this deep into the season. I think the chances at another accum event or 2 before we shut it down for the year are probably higher than normal. Not much more to ask at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 EURO looks like it is about to go haywire @ 168 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Wow that is a DEEP trough @ 174, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The upper air is so much better when you compared to this system getting ready to exit. Reading over DT discussion, mentioning about the MJO heading toward phase 8. So, next week looks to be a better setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 EURO is going to show an absolutely insane low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Again, I love Highzenberg, but we know how this is gonna go....WOW! Looks great! It's coming!!! OMG! Well, not this run, but next time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 HP building in @ 180 lets see if it comes in on time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 EURO is going to show an absolutely insane low Get out the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Get out the face. Oh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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