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Feb 8-9th Miller Boom or Bust Disco

Bob Chill

By Bob Chill,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

We may be heading into no win situation territory now. The ggem and gfs actually still have a decent meso scale even only more to our northeast. They also have the least influence from the coastal so they key on the norlun feature more only that's been shifting north slowly last few days as it looked like the lakes low isn't digging as much and that shifts the trough between the two systems north. The euro and nam now have too much influence from the ocean storm and that dampens the trough feature and then they suppress the vorts rounding the trough south of us also due to the suppressive flow behind the storm. neither solution does us any good anymore. If the gfs is right about the lesser effects of the coastal it still implies the trough action is north of us. the mechanism that keeps the track better on the euro is the same mechanism that squashes everything in general also so what are we even really looking for anymore? A miracle I guess

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ers-wxman1

ers-wxman1

Posted
Posted

We may be heading into no win situation territory now. The ggem and gfs actually still have a decent meso scale even only more to our northeast. They also have the least influence from the coastal so they key on the norlun feature more only that's been shifting north slowly last few days as it looked like the lakes low isn't digging as much and that shifts the trough between the two systems north. The euro and nam now have too much influence from the ocean storm and that dampens the trough feature and then they suppress the vorts rounding the trough south of us also due to the suppressive flow behind the storm. neither solution does us any good anymore. If the gfs is right about the lesser effects of the coastal it still implies the trough action is north of us. the mechanism that keeps the track better on the euro is the same mechanism that squashes everything in general also so what are we even really looking for anymore? A miracle I guess

I concur. Accumulating snow in our area now rests with the creator, a divine intervention.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Let's not sugar coat the nam it shows the worst case scenario. It really bombs out the coastal into a true blizzard for Boston and a healthy 6"+ snow for nyc even. There is nothing else. The coastal becomes the only show. Maybe some scattered snowshowers with the trough thats it. Come on its not like you can get any development in the flow only 150 miles behind the qpf field of a monster storm giving 2 feet to Boston. That's probably the most hostile setup imaginable. Kinda makes me laugh at the people rooting for the coastal to track more west.

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

I guess LWX sees something else with their disco...

 

000
FXUS61 KLWX 061951
AFDLWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
251 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA WHILE A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD MONDAY AND RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SFC TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE U30S/L40S AND L30S IN THE
MTNS MONDAY. AS PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD MOST OF IT WILL BE RAIN
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND SFC LOW
PRESSURE TRANSFERS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MOISTURE AND QPF FIELDS AND THEREFORE
UNCERNTAINITY EXISTS IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS.

TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND L30S NEAR I-95 BY TUESDAY MORNING
AND FOR THAT REASON PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW INTO
TUESDAY. ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH 3-6 INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF
I-95 AND 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE WASHINGTON DC AND BALTIMORE METROS.
AT THIS TIME...THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW TO
MEDIUM AS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY BANDS OF SNOW TO FORM
ACROSSTHE MID-ATLANTIC PRODUCING MORE ACCUMULATION. AT
THISTIME...LOCATION OF THESE BANDS COULD EXIST ANYWHERE ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
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Joshfsu123

Joshfsu123

Posted
Posted

NWS Sterling clearly seems to think it will be cooler around the area, including in DC, than what the GFS and other models are suggesting. Not sure why but they are the experts. We'll see... but I would definitely take the 2-3 inches they are advertising at the moment.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

Looking at the regional precip type maps on weatherbelll, you can clearly see that where the model "thinlks" the locally heavier precip will be, its colder at the surface, and it snows. The 18z GFS basically jips DC of the heavier precip(other than initially when the surface is too warm everywhere) and so they dont get much snow... although during the same period(h 66-72), it has heavier stuff over my area into NE MD and Delaware, and 2-3" falls. Just a really weird "storm" and hard to get a handle on. Probably wont know with any confidence whats going to transpire until later tomorrow or Monday.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted

Eps mean argues against a non event. Still 3- 3.5" thru 96 hours. What I notice that's incouraging is how long the region stays under good moisture flow at 700 mb and even 850 mb. Multiple pieces of energy keep snow chances in play for many hours. Far from boring and far from being nailed down.

I hadn't looked and it actually made me reconsider my pessimism a bit. I'm not nearly as bullish as nws but the eps definitely places the trough axis and best dynamics across our area so I guess they are riding that. In general terms about 20% have a total non event. 60% something in the 1-4" range and 20% show something significant. It's clear what we want though as the members that have a 4"+ snow max in our area all miss nyc with significant snow from the coastal and most don't even give Boston much. On the flip side the runs that have a raging blizzard in Boston and 6"+ in nyc are the total nothing cluster for our area. Basically if nyc is getting heavy snow rotating in off the ocean monday we are enjoying partly cloudy skies in the subsidence behind that coastal monster. If NYC is partly cloudy outside the qpf shield then maybe we have a shot.
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WinterWxLuvr

WinterWxLuvr

Posted
Posted

I hadn't looked and it actually made me reconsider my pessimism a bit. I'm not nearly as bullish as nws but the eps definitely places the trough axis and best dynamics across our area so I guess they are riding that. In general terms about 20% have a total non event. 60% something in the 1-4" range and 20% show something significant. It's clear what we want though as the members that have a 4"+ snow max in our area all miss nyc with significant snow from the coastal and most don't even give Boston much. On the flip side the runs that have a raging blizzard in Boston and 6"+ in nyc are the total nothing cluster for our area. Basically if nyc is getting heavy snow rotating in off the ocean monday we are enjoying partly cloudy skies in the subsidence behind that coastal monster. If NYC is partly cloudy outside the qpf shield then maybe we have a shot.

Interesting to me that WPC has Boston in a 10% chance of 4" for that storm. Evidently they feel that storm will be further out to sea.

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