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Bob Chill

Feb 2016 Medium/Long Range Disco

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Zwyts & Bob!

 

Check out the 12z EURO EPS Day 10-12....wow....You can see the setup, it is smoothed out of course being that far out, but it is almost amazingly identical to what we just experienced!

 

12z EPS day 10

 

post-66-0-48986100-1453927523_thumb.png

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Very true.  It was either big storm or big bust for us this year.  Fortunately, we enter Feb playing with house money.

the whole key this winter was taking advantage of the few shots of cold we did get. I think we did a pretty good job in that area

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Very true.  It was either big storm or big bust for us this year.  Fortunately, we enter Feb playing with house money.

 

Disagree...slate is clean....The success of the winter is far from determined....I thought one HECS was enough...But I was wrong...Let's not pretend we are satisfied.

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That was a really nice euro ens run. Expectations to get hit shortly after cold comes back may be a bit lofty but a lot of nice pieces are starting to show up. -AO / +PNA / split flow / southern stream / well placed aleutian low / low heights near NF and the maritimes. NAO very close to being neg. 

 

At d10-15 leads it seems like a pretty strong signal to me. Our window could end up being fairly large. 

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we need a storm now followed by severe cold. This El Nino melting is depressing. Seeing tons of grass in Tysons Corner

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Disagree...slate is clean....The success of the winter is far from determined....I thought one HECS was enough...But I was wrong...Let's not pretend we are satisfied.

 

Agreed, before the storm I was like, yeah, if we get a HECS I'm fine....Turns out it just makes you want more. 

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Not a big snow guy. What can I tell you. I like frequent events and long duration. My wife likes that about me.

I'm sure, but what happens when your plow breaks down every other day?.

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Ian (or anyone with SV), what analogs are showing for EPS D10-15?

1977-01-13

1970-02-14

1994-01-09

1983-02-01

1958-01-11

1998-01-11

1985-01-24

2013-01-22

2014-02-14

1990-01-25

 

Some OK ones in there. Some reminder of the look we were seeing early in the last go.. 1977 was a big one throughout the beginning of the blocking phase.

 

I tend to think the idea of something sooner rather than later is rushing it. I'd still favor mid-to-end Feb, though we could certainly get something prior and it's a bit easier to fall into something in Feb maybe just given it's been money lately.  Maps look good but neither -AO or -NAO is forecast to tumble much if at all into neg territory. Pehaps bumbling around near neutral is workable. Until I see signs a good -NAO isn't pretty key in Mod/Strong Nino in particular I'll probably remain somewhat reserved comparatively. But I'd still get the general feeling we'll get a quality look in Feb one way or another. We didn't really have as much of a more prolonged western ridge this past go so maybe that shifts things up a bit too.  Definitely no despair just not sure it's quite time to chase our next Cat 4 NESIS. :P

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That day 11-12 storm on the EPS looks to come further north than last week's.

 

Mitch, I see so much spread right now that it could go north south east and west. We have to wait until there's better clustering with location and timing. Go back to the Jan threads when we were 10+ days out before the blizzard. We had no idea whatsoever. Things were all over the place. Once we got into d9-10 range things started getting a little bit more clear but still all over the place. By d8 it started becoming believable. 

 

All we can do is see if the general idea holds together in the time frame. 

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Great post, Ian. I'm leaning towards nothing happening that quick after we turn cold as well. Doesn't usually work like that here. 

 

EPS was a big step towards a -AO/NAO compared to any previous run. Every 12 hours it seems to be looking better. But as we saw with the previous storm, the big window happened after the -AO had been established and then relaxed. Not saying that's the only way it can work of course. Just more typical. A small event could happen any time we have a good air mass in Feb so that is always a plus. 

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Disagree...slate is clean....The success of the winter is far from determined....I thought one HECS was enough...But I was wrong...Let's not pretend we are satisfied.

Yeah, one snow doesn't cut it.

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1977-01-13

1970-02-14

1994-01-09

1983-02-01

1958-01-11

1998-01-11

1985-01-24

2013-01-22

2014-02-14

1990-01-25

Some OK ones in there. Some reminder of the look we were seeing early in the last go.. 1977 was a big one throughout the beginning of the blocking phase.

I tend to think the idea of something sooner rather than later is rushing it. I'd still favor mid-to-end Feb, though we could certainly get something prior and it's a bit easier to fall into something in Feb maybe just given it's been money lately. Maps look good but neither -AO or -NAO is forecast to tumble much if at all into neg territory. Pehaps bumbling around near neutral is workable. Until I see signs a good -NAO isn't pretty key in Mod/Strong Nino in particular I'll probably remain somewhat reserved comparatively. But I'd still get the general feeling we'll get a quality look in Feb one way or another. We didn't really have as much of a more prolonged western ridge this past go so maybe that shifts things up a bit too. Definitely no despair just not sure it's quite time to chase our next Cat 4 NESIS. :P

There's that super outbreak of 85 showing up again. IDK, maybe you might be too young to remember that one, but it was a remarkable event, especially west of the Apps.

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Great post, Ian. I'm leaning towards nothing happening that quick after we turn cold as well. Doesn't usually work like that here.

EPS was a big step towards a -AO/NAO compared to any previous run. Every 12 hours it seems to be looking better. But as we saw with the previous storm, the big window happened after the -AO had been established and then relaxed. Not saying that's the only way it can work of course. Just more typical. A small event could happen any time we have a good air mass in Feb so that is always a plus.

Yes think first step is to get cold back in after any break. I'd never rule out early Feb for a storm chance entirely so once we get that we are probably somewhat open for business at least as far as lucking out in prime climo.

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There's that super outbreak of 85 showing up again. IDK, maybe you might be too young to remember that one, but it was a remarkable event, especially west of the Apps.

Well Jan 1977 was all over the last episode and it was a frigid month. I just don't think the real cold is available this winter but we've still got a few weeks to rip so we'll see.

I am somewhat impressed we seem to be pulling a negative Jan. Obv the storm helped.

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At least the GFS is starting to toss some minor events and a mecs out in lala. Hberg should be here soon. 

 

The very end is/looks tasty

 

Too bad checking the GEFS mean in that it wants nothing of the OP at all

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Disagree...slate is clean....The success of the winter is far from determined....I thought one HECS was enough...But I was wrong...Let's not pretend we are satisfied.

 

30" at DCA or bust

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If we can survive the torch and the tormenting cutter with rain, I think we will be in good shape. I'm thinking the same thing as DT that the pattern around mid February could be really good.

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Give me a 12" snow followed by two weeks of frigid with maybe a clipper in the middle and I'd be ok with calling it done. It's going to take a good six week period into mid March for me to call this a "good" winter.

Are you serious we just experienced a widespread 18-40" storm! The average for yearly snow is 22.2" at Phl I am a winter snow weenie but also a weather tracker. If winter were over today I am one of few maybe many who are satisfied with THE BIG ONE and done but I am somewhat sure we will get more snow this year looking over past ninos and the possible pattern setting up beyond Feb. 9th or so.

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Surprised no one mentioned the CMC. Though the surface reflection is minimal the 500's are screaming potential day 8 - 10.

.

cmc_z500_noram_36.png

Wow yea that is screaming a miller A from the Gulf....probably a hit and run with lots of qpf but none the less the 15"+ we may be looking for....it is the type of pattern you could see with a strong -epo +pna and -ao with a +nao that could still give us a nice set up not much different than last Feb and early March.

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