hammerz_nailz Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 a few flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I do weight them this close in. I've weighed them since yesterday morning. They are likely going to be the best piece of guidance we had. Globals still playing catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTNoreaster Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Ripping under the band in SWCT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Ripping under the band in SWCT! The NAM looks to line up pretty good with current radar...with a big band in SW CT back to just north of NYC into northern Jersey and PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 SWCT is getting destroyed Moderate snow in North Haven sideways but moderate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 I've weighed them since yesterday morning. They are likely going to be the best piece of guidance we had. Globals still playing catch upAs long as you are OK with higher amounts to the west, east and south then they are fine for us. We will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Solid AM AFD from BOX .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ***MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA*** ***HEAVIEST SNOW FROM HFD-PVD-PYM TO THE SOUTH COAST*** ***STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS*** 7 AM UPDATE...MADE MINOR UPDATES TO THE POPS...SKY COVER...AND TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. EXTREMELY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE /15 TO 20 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS/ IS SLOWING THE ONSET OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND. DESPITE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS OVER THESE AREAS...SNOW HAS YET TO BE OBSERVED AT THE SURFACE. STRONGER RADAR RETURNS /20 DBZ OR HIGHER/ ON THE REGIONAL RADAR ARE MORE IN LINE WITH OBSERVED SNOW AT THE SURFACE. EXPECT SNOW TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN CONNECTICUT BY 9 AM...AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND AS EARLY AS 730-8 AM. MODEL TRENDS AND PREFERENCES... 00Z MODEL GUID IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUN. EVEN THE 00Z NAM WAS WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF 00Z SOLUTIONS. THUS FOLLOWED A MODEL BLEND FOR MOST FORECAST PARAMETERS. IN ADDITION THIS RESULT IN NO CHANGE TO OUR PREVIOUS HEADLINES. JUST AN FYI...DATA FROM 12 DROPSONDES OFF THE MID ATLC WERE AVAILABLE FOR THE 00Z GFS AND 5 DROPSONDES FOR THE 00Z NAM. KEY SYNOPTIC FEATURES AND UNCERTAINTY... WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE INTERIOR MID ATLC AREA WITH A WELL ESTABLISHED WARM CONVEYOR BELT/FIREHOSE WITH SUBTROPIC ORIGINS STRETCHING FROM CUBA NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE COLD CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WAS PROVIDING A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. IN FACT DEW PTS WERE STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR CT/RI/MA. INITIALLY THIS WILL SLOW THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SNOW. FORECAST HINGES ON HOW FAR NORTH VERTICALLY STACKED/OCCLUDED LOW WILL TRACK. COMPETING FORCES ARE COLD/DRY CONFLUENT FLOW OVER CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WHICH REMAINS STUBBORN TO RETREAT NORTHWARD TODAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS...THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION TAKES ON A POSITIVE TILT...BECOMES ELONGATED SW TO NE AND THEN TRACKS MORE EAST THAN NORTH...REMAINING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS LIMITS THE NORTHERN PROGRESSION OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT PRECIP...PIVOTING TO ABOUT THE MASS PIKE AREA...THEN COMING TO A HALT. THUS SNOW TOTALS DIMINISH RAPIDLY AROUND THE MASS PIKE /I-90/ AND POINTS NORTHWARD. TIMING ... THE 00Z NAM QPF WAS VERIFYING VERY NICELY AT 06Z AND 09Z WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...SO FOLLOWED THIS GUIDANCE FOR THE ONSET OF THE SNOW. AT 09Z SNOW IS ALREADY INTO EASTERN LONG ISLAND. SNOW SHOULD REACH NORTHWARD TO A HFD-WEST-UUU LINE BETWEEN 6 AM AND 8 AM. BY MIDDAY THE NORTH EDGE OF THE SNOW SHIELD SHOULD BE AROUND THE MASS PIKE AND TURNING SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST MA. BY 1 PM TO 4 PM SNOW SHOULD REACH THE MA/NH BORDER. SNOW BECOMES STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST 18Z-00Z. SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME ACROSS CT/RI AND SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. POTENTIAL STRONG SNOW BANDS MAY PIVOT NORTHWARD ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN RI/SOUTHEAST INCLUDING CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET 18Z-00Z. IN FACT THERE IS LOW FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION/THUNDERSNOW OVER THIS REGION. THIS WOULD YIELD A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1-3" FOR A BRIEF TIME. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON NAM AND GFS DIFFER ON LOCATION/MAGNITUDE AND INSTABILITY. IN ADDITION BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATE SOME DRY AIR ADVECTING INTO THE SNOW GROWTH REGION /-10C TO -20C LAYER/. HENCE UNCERTAINTY ON INTENSITY AND EXACT LOCATION OF SNOW BANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST HOWEVER DID INCORPORATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOTALS INTO SOUTHERN HARTFORD COUNTY AS POTENTIAL BANDING FROM NYC/SOUTHWEST CT ADVECTS NORTHEAST. ALSO INCREASED AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON /NORFOLK COUNTY/. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO ALL MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPING SECONDARY MID LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WHICH BRIEFLY WRAPS WCB/TROWAL PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON BETWEEN 00Z-06Z. THEREFORE HAVE EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTHWARD INTO NORFOLK COUNTY. AS FOR OUR SNOW PROBABILITY GRAPHICS...GIVEN THESE MAPS ARE FOR PLANNING PURPOSES AND THE STORM IS JUST ABOUT UNDERWAY...THESE GRAPHICS WILL BE DISCONTINUED. HEADLINES ... AS MENTIONED ABOVE ONLY CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS HEADLINES WAS EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTHWARD INTO NORFOLK COUNTY...SOUTHERN SUBURBS OF BOSTON. WAS TEMPTED TO EXPAND BLIZZARD WARNINGS INTO NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE BLYR MAY WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO MIX IN AT TIMES ALONG WITH THIN WARM LAYER ALOFT YIELDING A POSSIBLE MIX OF SLEET. EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WILL RESULT IN VSBYS TOO HIGH TO JUSTIFY A BLIZZARD WARNING. NEVERTHELESS DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS... 00Z GUID HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH LOW LEVEL JET. STRONGEST WINDS 18Z-06Z. 00Z NAM WAS THE STRONGEST MODEL ALTHOUGH REMAINDER OF GUID NOT TOO FAR BEHIND. NAM SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AT NANTUCKET...SLIGHTLY LOWER RISK ACROSS CAPE COD. NONETHELESS HIGH WIND WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION WITH THE EXPECTATION OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND POWER OUTAGES. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... TONIGHT... SNOW BEGINS TO TAPER OFF ACROSS CT AND WEST-CENTRAL MA BETWEEN 00Z- 03Z AND THEN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 03Z-06Z EXPECT POSSIBLY LINGERING UNTIL 12Z CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET. IN ADDITION...STRONG NE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY SLACKEN. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 SPC special discussion out. Latest HRRR seems to be underdone on the shore with only .2-.4 falling by one PM in Fairfield and new haven counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Flurries here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 SPC special discussion out. Latest HRRR seems to be underdone on the shore with only .2-.4 falling by one PM in Fairfield and new haven counties. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Flurries here. Nah..virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 We snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Flurries here. That's a good sign for you. Ocean probably helping the low levels if you are moistening up that far NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Sn-- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 That's a good sign for you. Ocean probably helping the low levels if you are moistening up that far NE. It's just from OES stuff. Nothing above that. Certainly won't accumulate yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Flurries here. Where in town are you abouts again? Nothing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Death band is dying, but it's still ripping here. Quarter mile visibility, probably 2 inches at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Death band is dying, but it's still ripping here. Quarter mile visibility, probably 2 inches at this point.It's going to. The one behind it should take over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 About 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Where in town are you abouts again? Nothing here. East of the landing by close to a mile. Flake stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 First flakes falling now 22.1/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Steady light snow here. Pretty good snow growth. Ground whitened. Gusty. 28/19 Seems to be evolving very favorably so far to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
walthsnow Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Flurries here. Very tiny flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Parents report less than ideal snowflake size in southern Ct. Very small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Record water levels in SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 23, 2016 Author Share Posted January 23, 2016 nice snow growth here past 45min or so. good mod snow. 1" otg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 Light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 23, 2016 Share Posted January 23, 2016 The wind is already picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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