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Continued Winter Banter.


Ericjcrash

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These are certainly "the good old days" for snow.

 

These 20"+ events are all starting to blend together since there have been so many of them since 2000.

In the past, we were lucky to see 1 or 2 events a decade with maxes of 20" or more.

 

LI/SCT/SE NY/NNJ 20" max storms since 2000:

 

2/17/03

2/5-7/03

1/22-23/05 close at 19.5" max

2/11/06

12/19-12/20/09

2/26-27/10

12/26-27/10

1/11-1/12/11

1/26-1/27/11

2/8-2/9/13

1/26/15

1/23/16

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Even where the roads have been plowed multiple times and salted into oblivion, the lane size is drastically reduced down to 1 from 2 or 3. Tons of snowpacked secondary and tertiary streets by me. Main roads have been plowed but lots of places were closed over the weekend and are only just clearing out.

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Our problem in my neighborhood is they plow the streets beautifully but than dumb people dig their cars and throw the snow back on the street? I really don't get them! It's been pissing me off a lot. Like dude make a pile out of it and stop throwing the snow back on the street. What's the point of plowing if you're going to do that!

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There's lots of wiggle room on this...if the trough goes negative even 6 hours earlier than depicted on euro it's coming up the coast, and way west of current depiction

 

I don't see it. The trough is too far east, by the time the northern vorts drop in. Unless we see a dramatic shift, this is a coastal scraper threat with better results for E. LI and SNE.

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These 20"+ events are all starting to blend together since there have been so many of them since 2000.

In the past, we were lucky to see 1 or 2 events a decade with maxes of 20" or more.

LI/SCT/SE NY/NNJ 20" max storms since 2000:

2/17/03

2/5-7/03

1/22-23/05 close at 19.5" max

2/11/06

12/19-12/20/09

2/26-27/10

12/26-27/10

1/11-1/12/11

1/26-1/27/11

2/8-2/9/13

1/26/15

1/23/16

147 years of record keeping and 5 out of nyc's top 10 snowfalls have occurred in the past decade. our snow climo is changing rapidly.

CZcYBjmWwAAC_Uq.jpg

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I don't see it. The trough is too far east, by the time the northern vorts drop in. Unless we see a dramatic shift, this is a coastal scraper threat with better results for E. LI and SNE.

My only problem is that models have underestimate the timing of southern energy ALL year, I don't see the energy being behind or even with the trough, which is what the euro has been hinting, but hey we shall see soon enough lol

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I don't see it. The trough is too far east, by the time the northern vorts drop in. Unless we see a dramatic shift, this is a coastal scraper threat with better results for E. LI and SNE.

I think it's way too early to be drawing those conclusions. Especially considering how far NW the Euro and EPS have been and the trend this year for everything to move further NW over time. I would agree that this storm would favor E LI and SNE over the rest of the area, but we all know how volatile these things can be. Then you add in the Euro's better skill with Miller A's.

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There's lots of wiggle room on this...if the trough goes negative even 6 hours earlier than depicted on euro it's coming up the coast, and way west of current depiction

 

This may come far enough west to effect eastern areas. We are gonna need a dramatic shift W for us in the interior to have a chance. 

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147 years of record keeping and 5 out of nyc's top 10 snowfalls have occurred in the past decade. our snow climo is changing rapidly.

CZcYBjmWwAAC_Uq.jpg

Regardless of where you stand on agw it had been well studied especially in the last 10-15 years that warmer artic=more severe mid latitude winter weather. Doesn't mean we won't have some dud winters but they may be fewer and further between. Between 1970-2000 there were 16 "duds" (arbitrarily <20 inches of snow) 14 average or above and only 5 > or equal to 30. Since 2000, there have been only 4 "duds" (01-02,06-07,07-08 and 11-12). Of the rest only 2 were less than 30, 08-09 and 12-13. The rest (9 winters) were >30 and 8 of them >40 with half of those being >50. To put in perspective, between 1948-1949 and 2008-2009 (60 years) there have only been 5 winters with >50 inches of snowfall. Since 2009-2010 they're have already been 4 and depending on the rest of this winter we have at least a shot at 5 equaling the previous 60years. A snowy period such as this just does not exist in the 147 years of NYC snowfall climatology.

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we measure snow differently than before...one of the best examples of this was the blizzard of 64...it was a 24 hr storm that measured 12.5"...the snow depth measured 13"...something is wrong here if it was a six hour measurement...no snow was on the ground when it started and you would think 24 hours of snow would compact by the time it ended...

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Agree about the measuring snow different uncle w but that can't account for the large difference seen. It likely has some effect though I agree

the last 24 years had 20 storms 10" or more...not counting last years 9.8" storm...the 24 years before that was 1968-69 to 1991-92 had 5...1944-45-1967-68 had 11...

Year....date....amount"...

1872...12/26.......18.0"

1875...4/13.........10.0"

1876...2/3-4........11.0"

1877...1/1-2........13.0"

1879...1/15-16....13.0"

1888...3/12-14....21.0"

1896...3/2...........10.0"

1896...3/15-16....12.0"

1897...1/27-28....10.0"

1898...11/26-27..10.0"

1899...2/12-14....16.0"

1902...2/17..........10.0"

1905...1/24-25.....11.0"

1907...2/4-5.........11.0"

1908...1/23-24.....10.0"

1910...1/14-15.....10.0"

1912...12/24........11.4"

1914...3/1-2.........14.5"

1915...4/3-4.........10.2"

1916...12/15........12.7"

1920...2/4-7.........17.5"

1921...2/20..........12.5"

1925...1/2............11.5"

1926...2/3-4.........10.4"

1926...2/9-10.......12.0"

1933...2/11..........10.0"

1933...12/26........11.2"

1935...1/23-24.....13.0"

1941...3/7-8.........18.1"

1947...2/20-21.....10.7"

1947...12/26-27...26.4"

1948...12/19-20...16.0"

1956...3/18-19.....11.6"

1958...3/19-20.....11.8"

1959...12/21-22...13.7"

1960...3/3-4.........14.5"

1960...12/11-12...15.2"

1961...2/3-4.........17.4"

1964...1/12-13.....12.5"

1967...2/7............12.5"

1969...2/9-10.......15.3"

1978...1/19-20.....13.6"

1978...2/6-7.........17.7"

1979...2/19..........12.7"

1983...2/11-12.....17.6"

1993...3/13-14.....10.6"

1994...2/11..........12.8"

1995...2/4............10.8"

1996...1/7-8.........20.2"

1996...2/16-17.....10.7"

2000...12/30........12.0"

2003...2/16-17.....19.8"

2003...12/5-6.......14.0"

2004...1/28..........10.4"

2005...1/22-23.....13.8"

2006...2/11-12.....26.9"

2009...12/19-20...10.9"

2010...2/9-10.......10.0"

2010...2/25-26.....20.9"

2010...12/26-27...20.0"

2011...1/25-26.....19.0"

2013...2/8-9.........11.4"

2014...1/21..........11.5"

2014...2/13-14.....12.5"

2016...1/22-23.....26.8"

1870's...5

1880's...1

1890's...5

1900's...4

1910's...5

1920's...5

1930's...3

1940's...4

1950's...3

1960's...6

1970's...3

1980's...1

1990's...5

2000's...7

2010's...8

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