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Jan 22-23 East Coast Storm Discussion


Wow

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925 analysis shows roughly below freezing surface temps. It should erode some to the north and west for the next 4-6 hours before retreating again as the slp strengthens and pulls east, but nothing like the waa the NAM showed yesterday where GSO and even further west went above freezing.

 

925mb.gif?1453423451572

925 is not surface...

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it is 32 and rising at the airport, they said that should limit any addnl ice, but points north and west should stay below freezing

I hope they're right and there isn't much more accrual in RDU. I'd settle for all sleet or all rain if I could. Frz only looks pretty if your power is still on!

 

Yeah, just heard Wral say that the patchy is already trying to fill back in and we can expect this until about 10pm. He said north Raleigh will likely stay below freezing. Only rain trans in southern wake. That would even be short. Back to freezing. Then, he said he thinks we will get the back in snow showers/flurries tomorrow.

I'm in NW Raleigh. Still 30.

I know this is banner and has been said many times before. But Wake is always somehow in the transition zone. Every. Single. Time.  :lol:

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22z RAP would suggest the potential for a changeover to rate-dependent snow for GSO/INT around 01z.  There's still a small <0.5C warm nose at 825 mb, but I think that could possibly be overcome with rates.  Without rates, that's sleet, though.  We'll see.  Pretty potent warm nose overhead right now, in any case.  It certainly brings the juice with a lot of precip.

 

I am kind of in a believe it when I see it mode right now, but nevertheless that is what it shows.

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22z RAP would suggest the potential for a changeover to rate-dependent snow for GSO/INT around 01z.  There's still a small <0.5C warm nose at 825 mb, but I think that could possibly be overcome with rates.  Without rates, that's sleet, though.  We'll see.  Pretty potent warm nose overhead right now, in any case.  It certainly brings the juice with a lot of precip.

 

 

I assume in that case that the Burlington/Mebane area would be sleet for the duration?

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22z RAP would suggest the potential for a changeover to rate-dependent snow for GSO/INT around 01z. There's still a small <0.5C warm nose at 825 mb, but I think that could possibly be overcome with rates. Without rates, that's sleet, though. We'll see. Pretty potent warm nose overhead right now, in any case. It certainly brings the juice with a lot of precip.

I am kind of in a believe it when I see it mode right now, but nevertheless that is what it shows.

Same here. Models have been saying precip would blossom but still yet to see it happen. Hopefully the match gets struck soon.

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I know, that's why I said roughly. Just didn't have a good surface map handy. :ph34r:

The same site has surface temps. Just choose the surface option top left and the sfc/wind/dpt option. It's retreated a lot from earlier today in eastern and eastern central parts of NC.

0cc79f7ee5e066a2cd2e4571c88de458.jpg

More surprisingly to me, the 850 has nearly made it to Mecklenburg and Union border when we were +4 earlier.

0f9a842323a967b00e1a02a6e8d61590.jpg

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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The same site has surface temps. Just choose the surface option top left and the sfc/wind/dpt option. It's retreated a lot from earlier today in eastern and eastern central parts of NC.

More surprisingly to me, the 850 has nearly made it to Mecklenburg and Union border when we were +4 earlier.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Wonderful, thank you. Been chasing this one a bit long I think.

 

Yes the 850s are really crashing out west. If the coastal gets cranking that will be even more dynamic I suspect.

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998mb low cranking the n the Atlantic. One would think that somebody will benefit from back building precip and a pivot. Who will it be?

 

The RAP and HRRR give us some pretty good precip over the next two and a half hours and backbuild the band we're in.  I am a bit doubtful as we're getting close to the western edge, though.  In any case, the RAP soundings (which currently show a warm nose from 750-850 mb) have Greensboro/Winston-Salem moving into a snow sounding over the next hour or two, so we might have a shot at ending with snow.  I guess we'll see.  I'm certainly not expecting much other than more sleet.

 

It also looks like there could be a band of snow that cuts down into N NC overnight in the 3 AM area.  We'll see, though, as that's awhile off and probably wouldn't be heavy.

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[quote name="superjames1992" post="3913560" timestamp=

It also looks like there could be a band of snow that cuts down into N NC overnight in the 3 AM area. We'll see, though, as that's awhile off and probably wouldn't be heavy.

snow on top would be awesome ::: it's like Iowa out here lol .. sideways sleet/snow. and have noticed all day when in an"dry slot" precip is still falling ..: what an awesome storm this is

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Wrap around incoming...returns over GA and CAE are headed for RDU and points west. Depending on timing, could get an additional 0.10"-0.15" ZR overnight and a good dusting tomorrow morning 

 

 

Jon, Have to wonder if that will hold its moisture through the Triangle.  Batch we're getting now looks like the end for quite awhile

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