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January Mid/long Range Winter Discussion


Wow

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Our locat met is talking about it....Chris Justus, Meteorologist

*SNOW THREAT* I have been telling you the pattern is ripe for wintry weather and now we have a few threats to watch. The upcoming cold air is something I'm fairly confident about. The approaching moisture-packed systems and their strength and track are things I'm not confident about yet. I'll have a full video update today by 4:30pm and tonight on WYFF News 4 at 6pm.

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Isn't he like some weekend guy? I remember he once tweeted the NWS uses 100% model data in their grids. He also thinks AGW is a top-down government conspiracy. Anyway...I have a hard time believing his hype and thoughts. 

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The 12z GEFS is fired up for the 17th/18th

Yeah, overall the mean looked similar to the 00z run.  All we can really do at this point is hope to continue seeing the big picture items - west based block, PV lobe underneath, el nino feeding pacific waves.  The GFS members at 204 give the picture of the widely varied solutions (to be expected at that time range).

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTWIDE_6z/ensloopwide.html

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When is the next Euro run. 1? 2:30?

starts rolling here soon, depending on your website you use. SV starts rolling now, it will be 1:50pm or so before we get in range to the MLK day threat. 

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Euro has a similar look for next Thurs, but it misses the phase this run.  Low is in the gulf, but precip stays in southern 1/2 of Bama and GA through hr129

yep more suppressed and weaker, won't do it this run for 1/14...we'll see if MLK day brings the goods again. 

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