40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It is actually really impressive that by early next week, the AO for this winter will be averaging negative. We've definitely had some tough luck in the current pattern, but it isn't over yet. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 We probably will if the past has any say. But to tout that SSW will bring on a combined DJFM averaged -AO seems to be in trouble. This last -AO had zero to do with the stratosphere. I agree with all of this. Ostensibly, no, but as Tom as mentioned....no one really knows how it all works. I'm not sure an aggregate -AO is in much trouble. But if it is, and we do not get the SSW, I still think we get rocked at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 All of you guys were all over the -12 SD AO and associated pattern flip. Look, its easy to talk $hit because minor nuances didn't break our way, but you know damn well if he had just grabbed 1-2', this wouldn't be happening. I'm going out on a limb and saying we are probably going to see another major blocking episode. well it flipped yeah. but that's apples and oranges from his seasonal perspective. anyhow, likewise...we didn't just grab 1-2'. sooooo. you could call it bad luck i suppose. could also point to other reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Scott, you're a great met, but don't think you view Cohen in the most objective light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 well it flipped yeah. but that's apples and oranges from his seasonal perspective. anyhow, likewise...we didn't just grab 1-2'. sooooo. you could call it bad luck i suppose. could also point to other reasons. Yea, the fast PAC jet...sure. But I can point to many great patterns that didn't deliver in a multitude of seasonal regimes. I can also point to super nino regimes that did. I still say we get that 1-2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 And as I've said from day 1. I pray my forecast is terribly wrong and yours is right. You know your stuff. You're smarter than me. And I'll buy you some Coors Cutters if you win. I'm not really smart, man....I just worked my butt off studying and called on a life of weenie experience. You know plenty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'm not expecting that, either. Well, being Pollyanna is never good, but I seem to recall you and I noting him padding each blog update with caveats about what could go wrong. I know Will did, too. Yes he did, my point was just that he showed a concern finally for his original thoughts and not just acknowledging what could go wrong. I also would not base any thoughts on a long range GFS prog. That makes me question his rationale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yes he did, my point was just that he showed a concern finally for his original thoughts and not just acknowledging what could go wrong. I also would not base any thoughts on a long range GFS prog. That makes me question his rationale. He is probably nervous...he is human and has a career and a public image riding on it. I'm a nobody entertaining a hobby, and of course I'm nervous....I just try not to keep a more even keel than I have in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 the only positive you could take from Cohen was he's been about 180 from reality so far...so maybe if he tosses in the towel that's a good thingvery odd he posted he doesn't have Euro access, wonder what he would say about the Op showing a 50 hpa split vortex. Impressive neg AO we have though. Pretty much verfified. Just some bad luck.....so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Scott, you're a great met, but don't think you view Cohen in the most objective light. Thank you for the nice words, but his thought process is questionable at times. The man has a great idea and one that makes sense to me physically. However, 1) You claimed right for the completely wrong reasons and ignored what happened previous winters. Red flag #1 and a big one for me as a meteorologist who by trade should acknowledge and learn from things that go wrong. 2) The man needs to make money and tout his thoughts to make some dough. Kind of a red flag when money gets involved. 3) Displays somewhat of a lack of knowledge to how ENSO works. 4) Just completely accepts the twitter filatio he gets from people who have no clue about this recent -AO and how we got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 For the record, I stated that the pattern is such given ENSO and tropospheric look, we could still see a SSW. It would be silly to write it off. On the whole, I simply think the Pacific is what WE should be looking at. I feel people are looking up at the strat, when it's really the Pacific that is the bigger factor. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 He is probably nervous...he is human and has a career and a public image riding on it. I'm a nobody entertaining a hobby, and of course I'm nervous....I just try not to keep a more even keel than I have in the past. You have displayed a great technique in communicating thoughts and nobody should and needs to sway you in any way. Keep at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 He is probably nervous...he is human and has a career and a public image riding on it. I'm a nobody entertaining a hobby, and of course I'm nervous....I just try not to keep a more even keel than I have in the past. What are you nervous about? Busting on your Outlook or just not getting any snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Yea, the fast PAC jet...sure. But I can point to many great patterns that didn't deliver in a multitude of seasonal regimes. I can also point to super nino regimes that did. I still say we get that 1-2'. i'm not really sure anyone is saying it can't / won't snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I'd put it at 4 rungs below Epic and 2 above Atrocious. In other words, below average but spin-able. I think thats fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Thank you for the nice words, but his thought process is questionable at times. The man has a great idea and one that makes sense to me physically. However, 1) You claimed right for the completely wrong reasons and ignored what happened previous winters. Red flag #1 and a big one for me as a meteorologist who by trade should acknowledge and learn from things that go wrong. 2) The man needs to make money and tout his thoughts to make some dough. Kind of a red flag when money gets involved. 3) Displays somewhat of a lack of knowledge to how ENSO works. 4) Just completely accepts the twitter filatio he gets from people who have no clue about this recent -AO and how we got it. Yes. All valid. I killed him for last year, too......my outlook looked great, but I fully acknowledged that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 i'm not really sure anyone is saying it can't / won't snow. I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I think thats fair. Seconded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 This is another good GFS/GEFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Scott could you elaborate a tad? What looks good about it? The suspense is killing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I said a month last night. I'd be very concerned, but even March and early April can flip the script in short order. Well I think it depends on what "tossing in the towel" means too. We can always get a big event straight out till mid-April so if the barometer is just a big fun event, it'd be stupid to toss in any towel. If we are looking for above average snow, you can pretty much toss in the towel up here unless something statistically crazy happens. SNE can still get above normal snow obviously with a few good storms but anyone averaging over 100" that's sitting at like 6-16" right now is going to need a prayer with a handful of warning events. Or is the current goal-post just to get a couple snow events in a row and a period of winter, even if it's just 2-4 weeks long? We can definitely still score even a 6-9 week period of awesomeness. But curious to see where expectations are going forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Scott could you elaborate a tad? What looks good about it? The suspense is killing us. It still has a good ridge out west when I posted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It still has a good ridge out west when I posted it. GGEM is rebuilding the ridge out west too....granted, it is clown range on the GGEM. Hopefully the Euro comes around to this idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 very odd he posted he doesn't have Euro access, wonder what he would say about the Op showing a 50 hpa split vortex. Impressive neg AO we have though. Pretty much verfified. Just some bad luck.....so far Cant afford 20 a month? Tough times in the met community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 How did the Euro look in regards to the ridge out west? did it look anything this the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 How did the Euro look in regards to the ridge out west? did it look anything this the GFS? Breaks it down and we get really warm next weekend...granted this is a op run 228 hr out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Cant afford 20 a month? Tough times in the met community. Yeah these days there's really no excuse not to get good ECMWF data... I get it that every expense matters, but for a weather lover, there are much worse ways to spend $20. That's like one 12-pack of craft beer or a large pizza with toppings, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I just find this to be amazing. Mid January...the Atlantic Basin has a 'cane moving N of the 40th parallel... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 All sarcasm aside, given the pattern, I think it's good that there's not a storm showing in the LR since models can't figure anything out until within 4 days of the event. Since verification of LR fantasy storm have been 0% this year, I'd conclude that our chances of getting storm are better when THERE AREN'T any fantasy storms showing on the models. Plus, I think we're getting sick of these LR fantasy storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I just find this to be amazing. Mid January...the Atlantic Basin has a 'cane moving N of the 40th parallel... This season seems to be a different breed all together...perhaps that's why the models can't agree on much out past 2 days this year. Each run has a different idea...zero continuity it seems, even when we are in close to an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.