ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 thaw? Not convinced yet that it is a full blown 4-6 day thaw (like upper 40s or warmer)....could be really brief. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Not convinced yet that it is a full blown 4-6 day thaw (like upper 40s or warmer)....could be really brief. Seems like the models have backed off a bit, the GFS barely even shows one, except for at the very end of the OP runs 300hr+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Seems like the models have backed off a bit, the GFS barely even shows one, except for at the very end of the OP runs 300hr+ The D10 signal has definitely muted as we got closer...but yeah, there is another signal now in the D14-15 range. We'll see if that has any legs as we get closer...I'm skeptical of it because I do expect blocking to return in February, so I think any drastic pattern flip will be hard to achieve and we know models like to overdo it some out in the long range. The MJO pulse should be watched though...we could definitely sneak in a warm week if it gets strong enough in the unfavorable zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 We'll have to watch AK too. As that trough tries to furnace us towards the end of the run, the cold tries pressing south from Canada too. You can see it on the GEFS especially. Almost like a gradient look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The D10 signal has definitely muted as we got closer...but yeah, there is another signal now in the D14-15 range. We'll see if that has any legs as we get closer...I'm skeptical of it because I do expect blocking to return in February, so I think any drastic pattern flip will be hard to achieve and we know models like to overdo it some out in the long range. The MJO pulse should be watched though...we could definitely sneak in a warm week if it gets strong enough in the unfavorable zones. We'll have to watch AK too. As that trough tries to furnace us towards the end of the run, the cold tries pressing south from Canada too. You can see it on the GEFS especially. Almost like a gradient look. Good to keep in mind. Should next weekend produce, wouldn't snow cover come into play as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Good to keep in mind. Should next weekend produce, wouldn't snow cover come into play as well? Well snowcover can easily be overwhelmed by an unfavorable pattern. Methinks the unfavorable look may happen, but like I also said...maybe we can get more of an overrunning deal too. Kind of like the long duration storm last Feb. It was in the 60s in DC while it snowed here. Not saying to expect that, but it's an example of what can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Jan thaw meh then reload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Going forward, I think the pattern evolution is generally in alignment with prior posts, though, time will tell regarding the extent to which the reversal amplifies. [1] The NAM transition into a predominately negative state has occurred over the past couple weeks, via tropospheric forcing mechanisms [i.e., Kara Sea ridge development, potentially instigated by a couple of background factors], stratospheric polar vortex elongation in response to initial strong wave-1 attack which has warmed the lower/mid stratosphere over the Pacific side of the Pole. [2] Thus far, the severe -AO has not yielded any snowfall or extreme cold. The upcoming week will feature colder than normal temperatures. The rapid upward trend in both the AO and NAO modalities for the 18th-22nd period is a noted Archambault indicator for enhanced storminess / cyclogenesis along the East Coast. So the detection of a possible storm later in the week would coincide with statistics on prior sharp AO/NAO rises, and severe -AO dailies. However, if the western ridge amplitude is not sufficiently meridional and/or oriented more NE-SW rather than N-S, it will tend to force cyclogenesis too far S/E and push the storm offshore. This remains a possibility due to the off the charts +AAM state which has infused the Pacific Jet with incredible westerly momentum. The AAM tendency has been negative recently, but it is still very high. If the ridge remains amplified, there is enough downstream Atlantic residual blocking to prevent a warm/rainy scenario. Confluence appears strong. Largest risk is a S/E miss, in my view. [3] The targeted period for robust wave activity [Jan 20-30] will be occurring with the strongest wave-1 pulse to date, in accordance with the discussed precursors. Forecasted wave-1 heights, historically speaking, would be sufficient to induce a vortex displacement. Typically, the initial wave-1 hit is separated by a couple weeks of depressed flux prior to the second, stronger pulse. A potent +MT event in East Asia could develop as wave-1 increases concurrently, and this would enhance pressure on the vortex. The one wildcard remains the anomalously strong condition of the vortex this winter, which may require stronger wave activity than is typically needed to force SSWs. With that being said, I think the probability is mod-high for at least a minor SSW, whereby zonal winds slow significantly and 10hpa temperatures rise sharply. I am not certain that we will achieve a major SSW displacement, but the time frame continues to be near the end of January for that potential. [4] Regardless of stratospheric progression, other tropospheric indicators are suggestive of the overall maintenance of high latitude blocking in February. I expect that the Western ridge reload will be extremely transient. A classic Nino NPAC looks probable for the end of the month with the Aleutian low and +PNA. GWO orbit and heightened AAM state support the aforementioned regime of S/E US troughiness and Rockies ridging as the month closes. The expectation for February continues to be the gradual retrogression of the GOA with a -AO and -NAO in the means. Depending upon the evolution of the stratosphere, this AO/NAO blocking could be either moderately robust or severe / similar in magnitude to the January episode. An official displacement would heighten the probability of protracted blocking. Overall, it does not appear to me that we are paralleling the Nino winters which were torchy / snowless from front to back. The second half transition still looks on track. January is falling in accordance with the analogs; generally a near normal temperature departures with improved high latitude indicators. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The D10 signal has definitely muted as we got closer...but yeah, there is another signal now in the D14-15 range. We'll see if that has any legs as we get closer...I'm skeptical of it because I do expect blocking to return in February, so I think any drastic pattern flip will be hard to achieve and we know models like to overdo it some out in the long range. The MJO pulse should be watched though...we could definitely sneak in a warm week if it gets strong enough in the unfavorable zones. Yes, agreed. None of this is surprising based upon el nino climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Great post, Tom. Spot-on imo. The larger risk regarding the modeled KU is for suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro looks like cooking up another one 27th-28th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2016 Author Share Posted January 18, 2016 Stronger signal of torch 11-15 day. Seems like we aren't gonna be able to avoid that. Maybe with the cold in Canada we can keep worst of it south and more gradient like. But that might be wishful thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Stronger signal of torch 11-15 day. Seems like we aren't gonna be able to avoid that. Maybe with the cold in Canada we can keep worst of it south and more gradient like. But that might be wishful thinkingmaybe with 2-3 feet otg we wont give a rats ass if its 39 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 By the way Kev its day 14-15 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Stronger signal of torch 11-15 day. Seems like we aren't gonna be able to avoid that. Maybe with the cold in Canada we can keep worst of it south and more gradient like. But that might be wishful thinking Keeps getting pushed back. IDK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro looks like cooking up another one 27th-28th? GFS and GEFS show a snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 yeah all that ... purely supposition and not intended as a forecast: i am wondering if this winter's bulk snow quota takes place over the next ten days to two weeks. it seems the extended range teleconnector curves have flipped into a warm domain space, oscillating now up and down inside that realm over the last three nights. ...talking about the gefs, of course ... not sure what the euro cluster thinks. but in terms of the former, given to lingering warm pacific, if the pna slumps, and the epo and nao and ao for matter, all rise to neutral or even positive like the gefs mean has it, seems (intuitively) to favor warmer times in february. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GEFS show you how not to torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Great post, Tom. Spot-on imo. The larger risk regarding the modeled KU is for suppression. Thanks Ray. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Is it true the torch period isn't on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 How's the rest of the month looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 How's the rest of the month looking? Judging by the lack of activity in the long term threads I'm guessing not very good. February thread is completely dormant also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 At least we get some rain to look forward to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The 28th is one to watch. Early Feb may start mild with big trough in SW US, but it doesn't seem like it would last given the look of western Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Next week's storm looks like rain/snow line issues closeby in NYC to SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Gimme a nice relaxation school vacation week and reload week of 2/22. I'll be with the medical delegation where it doesn't ever snow....lol. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If this fringes me, then the next one rains, I will publicly melt. Can't hold that frustration in. That is entering the 2010 league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Back to the pattern thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nothing exciting looking on the pipeline it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Anything of note down the pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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