Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Interesting enso data with 3.4 rocketing and now back up to 2.8 (daily)and rising. This nino is not going down without a fight.neutral weak winter 2017? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 neutral weak winter 2017? 3rd year nino. Any analogs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Yes, very well said...volatile patterns are going to produce different model results even on the ensembles within days of eachother. This leads to a lot of weenies grabbing quotes that are days old and playing the "gotcha" game while completely ignoring the warnings of model volatility. It's a pretty pathetic act actually...we're here to discuss the weather and try to understand where the pattern is going to take us...with an emphasis on snow or snow chances, I know. I really wonder if people have gotten to the point where they expect snow events to be forecasted more than 5 days out...and patterns be forecasted well 2+ weeks in advance. Plus all the obsession with OP runs in the D7-10 time range. I keep wondering if I'm just getting old and jaded or if the forum has become a lot more weenieish...I mean, we used to weenietag people for obsessing over OP runs in that time range. I do suppose as long as it stays in the model thread, all is fair game...but sheesh...some of the reactions you see would lead you to believe that some are actually taking the solutions seriously. There is your answer. I said that last week when James was pissing me off....when I was a newbie, I used to fight with Chuck during the fall of '06 because he had that awesome outlook, but was very warm. I had crap to support my claims and was warned on a number of occasions, and even tagged once. If James had pulled that **** back then, he would probably nearly banned by now. Its a joke today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Man, how things have changed...I feel like Bob. Back then, I complained because people were so anal, and for that reason was elated with the whole sub forum thing....it was more chill because we knew each other. I like the leniency with the jokes and such, but baseless claims need to be cracked down on. Its awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 did you even read his post? How he is not on TO is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's only Mid January. And I hear ya about the Ratter from end to end...The weather serving up some big time Humble Pie it seems!! Where is the humble pie? We missed a great shot, other than that, it has behaved exactly the way that I, and others, thought that it would. I don't think anyone outlooked a perfect season in the threat department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 There is your answer. I said that last week when James was pissing me off....when I was a newbie, I used to fight with Chuck during the fall of '06 because he had that awesome outlook, but was very warm. I had crap to support my claims and was warned on a number of occasions, and even tagged once. If James had pulled that **** back then, he would probably nearly banned by now. Its a joke today. Haha its definitely true. Harwich, MA wouldn't have lasted long at all in the old days. Anyone even suspected of wishcasting was banned immediately to keep from becoming Accuweather forums where every storm was 12-18" with 60mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 very odd he posted he doesn't have Euro access, wonder what he would say about the Op showing a 50 hpa split vortex. Impressive neg AO we have though. Pretty much verfified. Just some bad luck.....so far Glad someone else saw that. Seems really, really suspect. Gefs and Eps look zonal to me in LR, that is if I'm reading the maps correctly. They are usually going to look a little zonal as they go out in time because the individual members start diverging more and it averages out, so signals look more muted than they would at verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Glad someone else saw that. Seems really, really suspect. They are usually going to look a little zonal as they go out in time because the individual members start diverging more and it averages out, so signals look more muted than they would at verification. so this would be good? 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 so this would be good? 18z It's not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It's not badmy comment was tongue in cheek Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 my comment was tongue in cheek As was mine, because it's the GEFS at 336 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Interesting enso data with 3.4 rocketing and now back up to 2.8 (daily)and rising. This nino is not going down without a fight.Probably one of the reasons we are struggling to put together a wintry stretch. The Nino is much too strong and remains that way.Although I certainly agree with Will that the pattern changed since December, it's still been fairly atrocious, and we are missing a major opportunity with the rainstorm this weekend. Get rid of the lead wave running across the Lakes, and you have a monster Miller A Gulf Low blizzard. I think folks are frustrated we're missing out on the heart of winter. For people farther south, we have about 7 weeks until spring climo takes over (avg highs 50+)...With the return of the +EPO from Jan 25-Feb 5, time is ticking. And the epic January pattern turned more mundane with an AO around -4 instead of the progged -5 or lower. Pattern went from amazing to just serviceable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Probably one of the reasons we are struggling to put together a wintry stretch. The Nino is much too strong and remains that way. Although I certainly agree with Will that the pattern changed since December, it's still been fairly atrocious, and we are missing a major opportunity with the rainstorm this weekend. Get rid of the lead wave running across the Lakes, and you have a monster Miller A Gulf Low blizzard. I think folks are frustrated we're missing out on the heart of winter. For people farther south, we have about 7 weeks until spring climo takes over (avg highs 50+)...With the return of the +EPO from Jan 25-Feb 5, time is ticking. And the epic January pattern turned more mundane with an AO around -4 instead of the progged -5 or lower. Pattern went from amazing to just serviceable. Great post. I mean was there anywhere to go but below after a +13 in December. You only can polish a turd so much. There has been over 6 inches of qpf at Orh since December 1st. And only 4 inches of snow obviously temps mean something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Great post. I mean was there anywhere to go but below after a +13 in December. You only can polish a turd so much. There has been over 6 inches of qpf at Orh since December 1st. And only 4 inches of snow obviously temps mean something If you think anyone ever implied that temps mean nothing, then you are a moron. No one ever said that. The fact is, that over several decades, precipitation has proved to correlate more closely to snowfall than temperature has through out about the northern 2/3 of sne. Sorry, unfortunate SW nuances do nothing to change that...neither does a plus 10 December because obviously that is an unprecedented departure. Give me 100" of precip throughout a year, and I'll show you a good winter. NYC, different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Glad someone else saw that. Seems really, really suspect. They are usually going to look a little zonal as they go out in time because the individual members start diverging more and it averages out, so signals look more muted than they would at verification. True good point. I'll keep it in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 ORH December 2012. 18.5" snow and temps +4.9. Clearly temps mean something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 ORH December 2012. 18.5" snow and temps +4.9. Clearly temps mean something.Scott the majority of the positive deviation came in the first 20 days the week of Christmas was cold and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Scott the majority of the positive deviation came in the first 20 days the week of Christmas was cold and snowy. It wasn't cold that week with the snow in late Dec 2012, I posted that stretch to JC the other day...it was like +2 to +3 with big snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 If you think anyone ever implied that temps mean nothing, then you are a moron. Typical strawman argument from Allsnow...what a joke of a post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Scott the majority of the positive deviation came in the first 20 days the week of Christmas was cold and snowy. I'm not sure where you are coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 It wasn't cold that week with the snow in late Dec 2012, I posted that stretch to JC the other day...it was like +2 to +3 with big snowstorms.I'm a bit confused what he meant by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 ORH December 2012. 18.5" snow and temps +4.9. Clearly temps mean something. Exception to the mean. Chicago doing way better the sne right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Exception to the mean. Chicago doing way better the sne right now ORD was 11.3 with 4.5" in December. They had an inch here and an inch there. Sounds like they are blowing by us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 ORD was 11.3 with 4.5" in December. They had an inch here and an inch there. Sounds like they are blowing by us. They got alot of their snow in Nov...That cold blast we had ORD got 11.2" the 20th-21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 They got alot of their snow in Nov...That cold blast we had ORD got 11.2" the 19th-20th Yep they had a well timed s/w move through. Otherwise, they haven't been far from interior SNE, except for a few inches in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I dont get how showing temp deviation over a month with snowfall amounts means a darn thing. Let's talk air mass for the last week of Dec 2012 which was a whopping +1 for the 6 day period in which 17 inches of the 18 fell. Its totally irrelevant what happened the first three weeks. The point being just throwing out some monthly stats is not the whole story. Here is the upper air look for the cold pattern which produced the snow ,and the pattern which produced the majority of positive deviation. I dont know what Scotts point was with his initial post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The same point as Allmelt's. It was to disprove his notion of temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Allmelt played the monthly temp claim, saying temps mattered. I did the same and showed how monthly temps don't necessarily matter. And not only that, the "snowy week" occurred in a still + regime in a time of climo still dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Allmelt played the monthly temp claim, saying temps mattered. I did the same and showed how monthly temps don't necessarily matter. And not only that, the "snowy week" occurred in a still + regime in a time of climo still dropping.+1 is within SD, bad example but I understand what you mean know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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