Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 That's good if it comes to fruition because it hasn't since last winter.Have had a couple of winter days but few and far between. We will see but as you can see because you know how to read models there are chances that didnt exist at all in Dec. To compare this pattern to Dec is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I am somewhat amused over the term relaxation when talking about the pattern. I mean we really haven't had any type of sustained cold. Sure it gets into the 20's for a day..maybe two if we are lucky, and then it's 40-45 again right away. I guess next week is going to be a lil more of sustained seasonable winter cold, so is that why we are using the term "Relaxation" when talking about it(the pattern) warming up a bit next weekend? Cuz we really have yet to get into any type of real winter weather imo. I feel like this is "typical" of our winters in SNE on a whole though, especially outside the berks. It's rare we have days upon days where temps never make it out of the 20s, except last February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Wheres the storms? Where's the snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I feel like this is "typical" of our winters in SNE on a whole though, especially outside the berks. It's rare we have days upon days where temps never make it out of the 20s, except last February. To a point yes. But it's been much warmer than usual overall so far this season. Normal High at BDL for this time of year is 34 or so, and normal low is in the mid teens or there about. We've been much warmer than that on average. Doesn't have to stay in the 20's either consistantly to be average/normal...at least imo :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 You loved the 23rd. Where'd that one go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Have had a couple of winter days but few and far between. We will see but as you can see because you know how to read models there are chances that didnt exist at all in Dec. To compare this pattern to Dec is silly. Well it certainly is colder....but we're still mainly aoa despite the look a week ago. I believe this upcoming week may be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
googmoog Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Go with the pro and not the weenie. It's becoming so challenging to gather straight info from this site! Alas, I still return daily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It's becoming so challenging to gather straight info from this site! Alas, I still return daily. Aside from the meltdowns, it's a difficult pattern To get a feel. It's marginal so a small change out west means a lot. There's some signs the Indian Ocean may get more active again, but that didn't work out a few weeks ago so who knows. It will et more active so there is that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It's becoming so challenging to gather straight info from this site! Alas, I still return daily. Well, we aren't locked into anything. Runs are changing each cycle so people's thoughts vary greatly, more than usual I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I would go with a DIT/ All snow combo for all Meteorological LR info. Their record the last two years is impeccable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Agree with this. Fwiw the eps agrees with the op for the warm up next weekend Well we've had snow on the ground over the interior for several days with negative temp departures and the next 7 days looks cold...so that will be about 8 or 9 out of 10 days with negative temp departures (tomorrow will be positive for sure). So if going from 8 out of 10 days with negative temp departures to normal/above normal is not a relaxation...then you'll have to redefine it for us. Maybe it has been warmer with no snow in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I would go with a DIT/ All snow combo for all Meteorological LR info. Their record the last two years is impeccable We blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 I would go with a DIT/ All snow combo for all Meteorological LR info. Their record the last two years is impeccableI don't think that's fair Steve.http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47301-december-2015-temperature-forecast-contest-year-end-reports/?view=getnewpost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Of course..you came in to polish the turd!!. Dendrite called it. Tell us how cold and snowy the next 10 days look!!this is fair,lol nickles and dimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Well we've had snow on the ground over the interior for several days with negative temp departures and the next 7 days looks cold...so that will be about 8 or 9 out of 10 days with negative temp departures (tomorrow will be positive for sure). So if going from 8 out of 10 days with negative temp departures to normal/above normal is not a relaxation...then you'll have to redefine it for us. Maybe it has been warmer with no snow in NJ. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Well we've had snow on the ground over the interior for several days with negative temp departures and the next 7 days looks cold...so that will be about 8 or 9 out of 10 days with negative temp departures (tomorrow will be positive for sure). So if going from 8 out of 10 days with negative temp departures to normal/above normal is not a relaxation...then you'll have to redefine it for us. Maybe it has been warmer with no snow in NJ. A inch of snow on the ground for interior mass for 8 days in the middle of january is not exactly screaming deep winter. some numbers Jan Bos snowfall so far 1.2 Temps +3.8 Orh snowfall so far 4.6 Temps +3.3 You can polish it as much as you want a relaxation from the numbers above is not exactly going to be remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 They are so-so...they do show a bit of a relaxation around the 25th as they have for the past 3 or 4 runs...but there's trough back over us after that...not cold, but definitely storm chances. I just looked. There really isn't something that screams big flip or chance at a biggie. Real shame that we missed this current event. Might be the best chance for at least another 1-2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 A inch of snow on the ground for interior mass for 8 days in the middle of january is not exactly screaming deep winter. Nobody claimed it was...but you agreed there's no real pattern change or "relaxation"...I just gave you numbers that argue otherwise. Whether we've been disappointed in the total winter or not is irrelevant to the pattern between January 12-Jan 21 and the pattern beyond Jan 21 being described as a relaxation or change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 A inch of snow on the ground for interior mass for 8 days in the middle of january is not exactly screaming deep winter. some numbers Jan Bos snowfall so far 1.2 Temps +3.8 Orh snowfall so far 4.6 Temps +3.3 You can polish it as much as you want a relaxation from the numbers above is not exactly going to be remarkable. did you even read his post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Nobody claimed it was...but you agreed there's no real pattern change or "relaxation"...I just gave you numbers that argue otherwise. Whether we've been disappointed in the total winter or not is irrelevant to the pattern between January 12-Jan 21 and the pattern beyond Jan 21 being described as a relaxation or change.smack down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 smack down It's fine...I get people want to complain. There's two things on the forum that you can't do without getting criticized by weenies: 1. Tell them the pattern has been good if there's no snow in their backyard 2. Tell them that there are "storm chances" if the pattern looks stormy but also above average for temps Allsnow will probably up his post count as long as the pattern remains crappy...and then drastically cut his post count in the New England forum if the pattern turns cold/snowy like he did last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It's fine...I get people want to complain. There's two things on the forum that you can't do without getting criticized by weenies: 1. Tell them the pattern has been good if there's no snow in their backyard 2. Tell them that there are "storm chances" if the pattern looks stormy but also above average for temps Allsnow will probably up his post count as long as the pattern remains crappy...and then drastically cut his post count in the New England forum if the pattern turns cold/snowy like he did last year. Finding or having a great pattern is like analyzing a particular football team. There are positions more important than others but all 53 players play a role. Every position does not always play well within a particular game, but it doesn't mean that you cannot win. However, you can also have the best 53 players in the league and still not come out with the result you were looking for. When you look at a football match-up you have to judge the big picture, put together all the pieces of the puzzle. It really is the same with regards to modeling, patterns, and the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Finding or having a great pattern is like analyzing a particular football team. There are positions more important than others but all 53 players play a role. Every position does not always play well within a particular game, but it doesn't mean that you cannot win. However, you can also have the best 53 players in the league and still not come out with the result you were looking for. When you look at a football match-up you have to judge the big picture, put together all the pieces of the puzzle. It really is the same with regards to modeling, patterns, and the weather. Good football analogy. The gfs is smoking synthetic weed. I'd bet our storm comes out of nowhere and surprises us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The problem is also the volatility. Models have been very changeable which then leads to opinions from myself and others describing some aspects going forward that may have differed from a few days ago. Guess what, it's weather. That will happen. The irony is that most of the time we try to offer confidence levels or caveats that usually go unnoticed. The reading comprehension on here leaves something to be desired. Sometimes patters work (2015) sometimes they don't (2016). Many times unforeseen intangibles and nuances get in the way. Those simply cannot be seen from 2-4 weeks out,,,,hell even 1 week out. If you cannot handle this and want to b**ch and moan, this may not be the place for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I would take this pattern the rest of winter, we'd have better luck eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Allmelt is a good example of comprehension. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The problem is also the volatility. Models have been very changeable which then leads to opinions from myself and others describing some aspects going forward that may have differed from a few days ago. Guess what, it's weather. That will happen. The irony is that most of the time we try to offer confidence levels or caveats that usually go unnoticed. The reading comprehension on here leaves something to be desired. Sometimes patters work (2015) sometimes they don't (2016). Many times unforeseen intangibles and nuances get in the way. Those simply cannot be seen from 2-4 weeks out,,,,he'll even 1 week out. If you cannot handle this and want to b**ch and moan, this may not be the place for you. nice way to put it, whiners gonna whine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I came up at the end of January last year, ground was bare and temps were seasonal and then that Sat we got 5 inches and then that Sunday I was scrambling for a flight to FL to beat the blizzard. In the good words of Aaron Rogers, RELAX! On a side note I caught some Wiz like weather today,tornado watches and warnings flying today, wetter than normal winter per the locals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The problem is also the volatility. Models have been very changeable which then leads to opinions from myself and others describing some aspects going forward that may have differed from a few days ago. Guess what, it's weather. That will happen. The irony is that most of the time we try to offer confidence levels or caveats that usually go unnoticed. The reading comprehension on here leaves something to be desired. Sometimes patters work (2015) sometimes they don't (2016). Many times unforeseen intangibles and nuances get in the way. Those simply cannot be seen from 2-4 weeks out,,,,he'll even 1 week out. If you cannot handle this and want to b**ch and moan, this may not be the place for you. Yes, very well said...volatile patterns are going to produce different model results even on the ensembles within days of eachother. This leads to a lot of weenies grabbing quotes that are days old and playing the "gotcha" game while completely ignoring the warnings of model volatility. It's a pretty pathetic act actually...we're here to discuss the weather and try to understand where the pattern is going to take us...with an emphasis on snow or snow chances, I know. I really wonder if people have gotten to the point where they expect snow events to be forecasted more than 5 days out...and patterns be forecasted well 2+ weeks in advance. Plus all the obsession with OP runs in the D7-10 time range. I keep wondering if I'm just getting old and jaded or if the forum has become a lot more weenieish...I mean, we used to weenietag people for obsessing over OP runs in that time range. I do suppose as long as it stays in the model thread, all is fair game...but sheesh...some of the reactions you see would lead you to believe that some are actually taking the solutions seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Interesting enso data with 3.4 rocketing and now back up to 2.8 (daily)and rising. This nino is not going down without a fight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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