superjames1992 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 When are y'all gonna learn!? Bowling ball$ make their own cold, nobody should worry about BL temp$! Rates will overcome all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 When are y'all gonna learn!? Bowling ball$ make their own cold, nobody should worry about BL temp$! Oh boy here we go again...... Seriously though, I saw this several days ago on the GFS and mentioned it in the Mtn./Foothills thread. Could be something for the higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 When are y'all gonna learn!? Bowling ball$ make their own cold, nobody should worry about BL temp$! This one always makes me laugh. Gulf smothers the hopes for all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Euro was close at lunch to sme fun n games for early next week in NC. Be interesting to see tonights run in the a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Pre-emergent time....When was the last time we hit 80F in mid-Dec...this is probably close to 70F and it's the ensemble mean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Pre-emergent time....When was the last time we hit 80F in mid-Dec...this is probably close to 70F and it's the ensemble mean....I'll go ahead and say 80 is impossible lol...but close to 70 isn't! I see a lot of low to mid 60s for mean gefs 2mT's, a 66 for Goldsboro but no 70 yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Pre-emergent time....When was the last time we hit 80F in mid-Dec...this is probably close to 70F and it's the ensemble mean....Dec '87! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Pre-emergent time....When was the last time we hit 80F in mid-Dec...this is probably close to 70F and it's the ensemble mean.... it's hard to see how that gets turned around by Xmas. I mean some of those anomaly colors I have never seen on a real map...just in the legend below. Not that anyone said it would turn around but I am just hoping like you guys for a holiday weather miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 it's hard to see how that gets turned around by Xmas. I mean some of those anomaly colors I have never seen on a real map...just in the legend below. Not that anyone said it would turn around but I am just hoping like you guys for a holiday weather miracle. It's not...mid-Jan on should turn around. The +QBO is not helping but even in the +QBO analogs blocking does develop late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 I really don't see anything great about the past runs of the GFS. Even way out in the fantasy time period (day 15-16), there is no real cold air penetration into the US. I guess a good thing is we don't torch during the extended. There'll be to be some warm ups followed by cool downs. A lot of near average type temps with rain (at least for us SE folks). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Winter Outlook from Riskpulse. Good write up - https://riskpulse.com/blog/2015-2016-winter-weather-outlook/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 I really don't see anything great about the past runs of the GFS. Even way out in the fantasy time period (day 15-16), there is no real cold air penetration into the US. I guess a good thing is we don't torch during the extended. There'll be to be some warm ups followed by cool downs. A lot of near average type temps with rain (at least for us SE folks).Just where we want to be! If a "torch" December is +1 or 2 degrees, I'm great with that, then we get a -2 or-3 degree below Jan, then a -5 for February , and we will all be giddy, with the STJ along for the party! And for all who filled out their snow totals expectations, thank y'all for mostly going with 9-12" for your GSP thoughts! It'll never happen , but it makes me feel all warm and fuzzy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 I really don't see anything great about the past runs of the GFS. Even way out in the fantasy time period (day 15-16), there is no real cold air penetration into the US. I guess a good thing is we don't torch during the extended. There'll be to be some warm ups followed by cool downs. A lot of near average type temps with rain (at least for us SE folks). yeah I guess I am not seeing a torchy Dec that everyone was going on about either......looks mostly highs 50's lows 35-40 on the models and that's been fairly consistent the last few days but anything can happen on the LR I suppose......if anything compared to average the last few runs have been right at or below normal for highs and lows at least for my neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Winter Outlook from Riskpulse. Good write up - https://riskpulse.com/blog/2015-2016-winter-weather-outlook/ wait...they posted a winter outlook on Dec 1st? lol....I think there's a unspoken rule for seasonal forecasting: If you're going to flip a coin, do it early with everyone else, don't wait until your odds are slightly better and then say you outperformed everyone, that's called cheating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 The GFS is going to whip some folks around like a puppet on strings in the wind the next 3 months Stay away from it, get on the euro sauce and be content getting a much more clearer picture close to reality. In the SE find what climo normal is for your area and that's what you will avg out to seasonal snowfall and temp wise. Qpf will be much above normal but the other 2 will come in within a degree of your micro climate avg after the next 87 days pass. Normal high is like 56 or 58 today. Gonna be 4 to 5 colder than normal. People will think because it's 51 degrees and not in the mid 30s for highs we are torching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 That forecast from Riskpulse is pretty bad. First of all they waited until early December to issue it, most forecasters issue theirs in early November or October. Second, they're taking the current pattern setup of warm anomalies in the northern US to the Deep South and saying these areas will be above normal all winter while the west will continue to be cold. Essentially they're taking the pattern from the first 15 days of this month and saying "it's going to be the same all winter." Also they fail to mention the research done that shows a strong PV between October-December has historically rapidly weakened in January and caused stronger cold air intrusions in North America. Last but not least, that forecast write up says that because this is such a strong El Niño it will be warm all winter except in the west. There is very little data to actually back that up as historically El Niño winters are warm in November-December like we've seen and turn quite cold January into February. The seasonal models are hinting at that and finally the long range ensembles of the GGEM and the GFS are hinting at a pattern change in the works by late December into early January. I see little data or modeling to confirm their forecast and suspect they will bust quite badly when January and February rolls around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 I really don't see anything great about the past runs of the GFS. Even way out in the fantasy time period (day 15-16), there is no real cold air penetration into the US. I guess a good thing is we don't torch during the extended. There'll be to be some warm ups followed by cool downs. A lot of near average type temps with rain (at least for us SE folks). The torch is more for our cold air source region like Canada where they will see extremely warm anomalies. While we will be right around or slightly above normal this way, the further north you go the warmer it gets compared to average. The cold shots we get will also be quite transient as well. The analogs for December I used suggested anomalies of +1 or +2 here which is right on track while further north it indicated +7 or more anomalies which also is on track. This is good news because it means January will see a shift to the trough moving east into Texas and then the TN valley with good blocking establishing itself as well. Could get the elusive -NAO this year as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 wait...they posted a winter outlook on Dec 1st? lol....I think there's a unspoken rule for seasonal forecasting: If you're going to flip a coin, do it early with everyone else, don't wait until your odds are slightly better and then say you outperformed everyone, that's called cheating. Fair point...consider it a 3 month outlook instead. Regardless, it's a sound write-up, though not the outcome I want to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 That forecast from Riskpulse is pretty bad. First of all they waited until early December to issue it, most forecasters issue theirs in early November or October. Second, they're taking the current pattern setup of warm anomalies in the northern US to the Deep South and saying these areas will be above normal all winter while the west will continue to be cold. Essentially they're taking the pattern from the first 15 days of this month and saying "it's going to be the same all winter." Also they fail to mention the research done that shows a strong PV between October-December has historically rapidly weakened in January and caused stronger cold air intrusions in North America. Last but not least, that forecast write up says that because this is such a strong El Niño it will be warm all winter except in the west. There is very little data to actually back that up as historically El Niño winters are warm in November-December like we've seen and turn quite cold January into February. The seasonal models are hinting at that and finally the long range ensembles of the GGEM and the GFS are hinting at a pattern change in the works by late December into early January. I see little data or modeling to confirm their forecast and suspect they will bust quite badly when January and February rolls around. I echoed their concerns several weeks ago also. This isn't going to be a perfect little climo Nino winter, there are other factors at work also. Even weather channel lowered the magnitude of their below normal temps from their first forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 I really don't see anything great about the past runs of the GFS. Even way out in the fantasy time period (day 15-16), there is no real cold air penetration into the US. I guess a good thing is we don't torch during the extended. There'll be to be some warm ups followed by cool downs. A lot of near average type temps with rain (at least for us SE folks). The good thing is the fact that the pattern is changing to something else other than the Day 10 death ridge, whatever that is remains to be seen. It's a beautiful sight after seeing the heat for November and the first 15 days of December, it will only get better when we get closer to Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Welcome to yesterday. And the day before. And.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 That forecast from Riskpulse is pretty bad. First of all they waited until early December to issue it, most forecasters issue theirs in early November or October. Second, they're taking the current pattern setup of warm anomalies in the northern US to the Deep South and saying these areas will be above normal all winter while the west will continue to be cold. Essentially they're taking the pattern from the first 15 days of this month and saying "it's going to be the same all winter." Also they fail to mention the research done that shows a strong PV between October-December has historically rapidly weakened in January and caused stronger cold air intrusions in North America. Last but not least, that forecast write up says that because this is such a strong El Niño it will be warm all winter except in the west. There is very little data to actually back that up as historically El Niño winters are warm in November-December like we've seen and turn quite cold January into February. The seasonal models are hinting at that and finally the long range ensembles of the GGEM and the GFS are hinting at a pattern change in the works by late December into early January. I see little data or modeling to confirm their forecast and suspect they will bust quite badly when January and February rolls around. Really? Jon Davis has been around doing seasonal forecasting for many years and has been well compensated for it...what you are seeing now was probably given to clients a while ago. It is fine to disagree, but let's have a little perspective on it. There is a lot of meteorological horsepower working there. I have worked with two of their staff members before...very smart mets doing well in their field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 That forecast from Riskpulse is pretty bad. First of all they waited until early December to issue it, most forecasters issue theirs in early November or October. Second, they're taking the current pattern setup of warm anomalies in the northern US to the Deep South and saying these areas will be above normal all winter while the west will continue to be cold. Essentially they're taking the pattern from the first 15 days of this month and saying "it's going to be the same all winter." Also they fail to mention the research done that shows a strong PV between October-December has historically rapidly weakened in January and caused stronger cold air intrusions in North America. Last but not least, that forecast write up says that because this is such a strong El Niño it will be warm all winter except in the west. There is very little data to actually back that up as historically El Niño winters are warm in November-December like we've seen and turn quite cold January into February. The seasonal models are hinting at that and finally the long range ensembles of the GGEM and the GFS are hinting at a pattern change in the works by late December into early January. I see little data or modeling to confirm their forecast and suspect they will bust quite badly when January and February rolls around. Well I wouldn't be surprised at all if D-F verifies like that but I would also be shocked if Feb is warm in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Welcome to yesterday. And the day before. And.... These make work enjoyable Thanks for the laugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 wait...they posted a winter outlook on Dec 1st? lol....I think there's a unspoken rule for seasonal forecasting: If you're going to flip a coin, do it early with everyone else, don't wait until your odds are slightly better and then say you outperformed everyone, that's called cheating. They are going 72-73... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 These make work enjoyable Thanks for the laugh! Thanks. All we can do is laugh at this hot garbage, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Winter Outlook from Riskpulse. Good write up - https://riskpulse.com/blog/2015-2016-winter-weather-outlook/ I took their outlook to be....PersistanceFTL. They had their warm discussion like we see now and then mentioned a potentail transition in March. That's the outcome I fear each week, the further we get into the discussion. Changing such a stable pattern and vortex could....could take a real long time. Still lots of time, not truly worried until we see the same thing come Jan 1, but I think it's a fair opinion. With a +AO and +EPO/-PNA, we got nada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 LOL ....not even sure if I want to comment on the 12z GFS. Big change from previous runs in the extended with cold and fantasy snow for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 See my post above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 See my post above. The 12z was a pretty big swing of the wipe. But I agree, totally crap at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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