BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I wish Aaron Rodgers posted here so he could tell y'all to R-E-L-A-X Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 You do realize that this pattern of a western trough/eastern ridge has been repeating for over a month now. Persistence would argue that it will continue. So when you see the models start to mute the cold push and re-build the trough in the west, it shouldn't be readily dismissed, even if it's one or two model runs. Also, there are some really good mets that are pointing to a warmer than normal east for the entire winter. Also, we have a very strong El Nino that is not waning as quickly as predicted and is pushing us into uncharted territory (few analogs). It's more than that, it's the ensembles. Both EURO and GFS ensembles never bring lower heights/cold to the east. Stuck out west. They both agree. I remain very skeptical for any snow chances for the first half of January with above normal temps shown in that consensus. Maybe the models change once the pattern gets established but I doubt it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 circle.png https://youtu.be/j60l_BbQHJY?t=365 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 the eps and the Canadian ensembles don't have a western trough. Nothing teleconnects to a western trough. I dont understand why so many are cliff diving this morning. It would take a near miracle for the pattern to not turn wintry with the indicies setting up the way they are setting up. This is understanding climo at a basic 101 level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It's more than that, it's the ensembles. Both EURO and GFS ensembles never bring lower heights/cold to the east. Stuck out west. They both agree. I remain very skeptical for any snow chances for the first half of January with above normal temps shown in that consensus. Maybe the models change once the pattern gets established but I doubt it... I'm more concerned with the second half of January. First two weeks never really got me excited. Hard to go against literally EVERY SINGLE indicie heading towards favorable phases, regardless of what models show. Plus, wasn't it just yesterday AND the day before where literally EVERY model from the CFS to the GEFS showing low heights in the east? We're gonna flip out over one suite of runs? Come on fellas. It's still December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 http://68.226.77.253/text/offhrGFSxExtract/GFS_KCLT.txtCan someone find me the AN temps? It looks normal or slightly below normal for most of that run, excepting this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It's more than that, it's the ensembles. Both EURO and GFS ensembles never bring lower heights/cold to the east. Stuck out west. They both agree. I remain very skeptical for any snow chances for the first half of January with above normal temps shown in that consensus. Maybe the models change once the pattern gets established but I doubt it... The models do agree on -AO a neutral to negative NAO and a +PNA. I don't care how the models look at face value. If that is true the east will get cold and someone in the SE up the eastern seaboard will get big storms. Now will the flip happen in 2 days? Probably not. I think we're looking more in the 15th - 20th time frame for a realistic change in weather. We might luck out with the 10th - 15th as the change is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I'm more concerned with the second half of January. First two weeks never really got me excited. Hard to go against literally EVERY SINGLE indicie heading towards favorable phases, regardless of what models show. Plus, wasn't it just yesterday AND the day before where literally EVERY model from the CFS to the GEFS showing low heights in the east? We're gonna flip out over one suite of runs? Come on fellas. It's still December. No the ensembles have been pretty consistent yesterday and the day before, trough in the west...within the 12 day range anyway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I dont understand why so many are cliff diving this morning. It would take a near miracle for the pattern to not turn wintry with the indicies setting up the way they are setting up. This is understanding climo at a basic 101 level. Because the weather hates us and will go against all the indicators to not give us snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 No the ensembles have been pretty consistent yesterday and the day before, trough in the west...within the 12 day range anyway... That's not a trough in the west. It's an area of colder 500mb anomalies due to a 500mb cutoff low which gets stuck under the ridge in Canada. There is a distinct and major difference between the two. That's what the models are struggling with and why last night they appear warmer and to delay the change; the 500mb low sits and spins out there and doesn't really do much. It won't sit there that long in the same place models are just having a hard time with the pattern change. As it moves east the models show a trough forming over the central and eastern US but the timing of this happening is key. Models will continue to flip back and forth next few days as they try to figure things out. Nothing to worry about. First week of January is seasonal temps and then second week begins turning colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 http://68.226.77.253/text/offhrGFSxExtract/GFS_KCLT.txt Can someone find me the AN temps? It looks normal or slightly below normal for most of that run, excepting this week. Here's the GEFS ensembles. EURO ENS agrees through day 10 (free maps because I'm cheap!) The models do agree on -AO a neutral to negative NAO and a +PNA. I don't care how the models look at face value. If that is true the east will get cold and someone in the SE up the eastern seaboard will get big storms. Now will the flip happen in 2 days? Probably not. I think we're looking more in the 15th - 20th time frame for a realistic change in weather. We might luck out with the 10th - 15th as the change is happening. I'm open to that. Maybe later in the month we get colder. Just not excited about the next two weeks other than the indices are better. I'd like the models to show me the money, sort to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I'm open to that. Maybe later in the month we get colder. Just not excited about the next two weeks other than the indices are better. I'd like the models to show me the money, sort to speak. Who is? Seems everyone is just happy the models are showing that a pattern change will happen vs. the warmth we've been stuck in. An interesting note is that EPS parallel (the Euro upgrade this spring) is showing the pattern change near the end of it's run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 buckeyefan really has a thing for El Nino...He must've bought her tacos and sweatpants for Christmas. He brought me tequila I'm not sure why me being realistic about what the models are showing and have been showing is considered an evil thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Who is? Seems everyone is just happy the models are showing that a pattern change will happen vs. the warmth we've been stuck in. An interesting note is that EPS parallel (the Euro upgrade this spring) is showing the pattern change near the end of it's run as well. Also fwiw it's verification scores are neck and neck with the Euro we have currently this suggesting it will be accurate with improved resolution. Why can't they upgrade the GFS without losing accuracy? I have to say it's pretty bad and hasn't gotten better in recent years. It's decent inside 5 days but horrible outside that. I've seen it flip solutions completely even at the 144-168 range whereas the Euro typically locks on to something inside 168 and doesn't change all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Who is? Seems everyone is just happy the models are showing that a pattern change will happen vs. the warmth we've been stuck in. An interesting note is that EPS parallel (the Euro upgrade this spring) is showing the pattern change near the end of it's run as well. Snowlover91. There was a lot of talk yesterday about a potential storm too in Jan 10-14 range I think too. It's possible, but I'm confused by that and what the ensembles are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 He brought me tequila I'm not sure why me being realistic about what the models are showing and have been showing is considered an evil thing Nobody wants truth, reality or common sense!We all want snow only! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 This is such a fun board with all the different opinions and discussions. Who's to blame for stirring things up today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Snowlover91. There was a lot of talk yesterday about a potential storm too in Jan 10-14 range I think too. It's possible, but I'm confused by that and what the ensembles are showing. I have been for awhile, since November when I made my winter forecast I predicted a warm December that would have a storm track through the middle of the nation with a few bouts of severe weather due to the warmth. I also mentioned that by mid-December many would begin to give up on winter before it even started. That's exactly what we saw too, although December was even warmer than I anticipated. Then in mid-December when models began hinting at an early January pattern change with indices improving and seasonal temps people said it would never happen. Now we are here and it indeed looks like we see the indices trend favorably and seasonal temps the first week of January. Likewise I'm sticking with my call for colder weather the second week of January as the blocking really begins to take hold. I could be wrong and my analogs used could end up wrong but I'm willing to take that chance and if things turn out differently I go back and research the variables which kept us from turning colder. Until then I'm sticking with my predictions especially since the overall trend in ensembles is favorable. Also, the low anomalies out west aren't from a trough but a cold 500mb cutoff low over the SW. It's different from the trough we saw out west most of December with occasional 500mb cutoffs. We actually have ridging in Canada with the split flow and cold 500mb lows undercutting it. It's a big change from what we saw in December with a western trough and eastern ridging. Also the January 10-15th storm is the cutoff low out west that will bring snow to many once it actually decides to move east. It's too far out to know how quickly that happens but that will determine two things: when the cold anomalies build over the east and also how quickly we transition to the much colder pattern. The sooner it ejects from the SW the sooner we see both happen. Jmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 This is such a fun board with all the different opinions and discussions. Who's to blame for stirring things up today... Evidently it's always my fault You would think after watching and waiting last year for things that were supposed to happen, that never did, some would learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Also fwiw it's verification scores are neck and neck with the Euro we have currently this suggesting it will be accurate with improved resolution. Why can't they upgrade the GFS without losing accuracy? I have to say it's pretty bad and hasn't gotten better in recent years. It's decent inside 5 days but horrible outside that. I've seen it flip solutions completely even at the 144-168 range whereas the Euro typically locks on to something inside 168 and doesn't change all that much. Supposedly the real reason is due to a corrupt deal with a technology company that makes the machines used to run servers etc.. for the GFS. Euro isn't locked into deals so they work with multiple partners to get the best machines they can get. GFS is stuck with a company trying to force a buck and doesn't care much about the actual technology...rumors and speculation of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Snowlover91. There was a lot of talk yesterday about a potential storm too in Jan 10-14 range I think too. It's possible, but I'm confused by that and what the ensembles are showing. I'm not too big on that time frame...but I could see it happening IF (and a big IF) the pattern change comes just before that. Our best storms tend to be right when a pattern change is happening...either big cold coming right in front or when the cold is just about to leave. For that reason it's possible...I just think the pattern change will be a little delayed compared to what the models are showing. All that being said we've seen the models sniff it out in the long range then a few days later have the pattern flipping quickly. If the indices are correct that could easily happen and we could be seeing real threats in that time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Evidently it's always my fault You would think after watching and waiting last year for things that were supposed to happen, that never did, some would learn Without a doubt we have the most optimistic bunch in this region, it's quite funny actually. I know I harp on warmth alot but think about it...since Jan 2011 we have had 3 BN winters months out of the past 14 and soon to be 15 including this Jan. Warmth has ruled. This should flip in the next few years, theoretically as we enter a cool AMO phase, I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 A quick check shows Macon's monthly average temperature, through yesterday, of 58.1. November was 59.45. Almost within one degree of being equal. Anyone want to take time to see if their area ever had a December that averaged warmer than November? Surely it's happened sometime. Anyway, I've taken this opportunity to take some pic's of the Christmas Cherry Blossom and Azalea blooms for my ancestors to marvel over some day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Without a doubt we have the most optimistic bunch in this region, it's quite funny actually. I know I harp on warmth alot but think about it...since Jan 2011 we have had 3 BN winters months out of the past 14 and soon to be 15 including this Jan. Warmth has ruled. This should flip in the next few years, theoretically as we enter a cool AMO phase, I hope. The climate seems to be in the midst of an aggressive redefinition of normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 A quick check shows Macon's monthly average temperature, through yesterday, of 58.1. November was 59.45. Almost within one degree of being equal. Anyone want to take time to see if their area ever had a December that averaged warmer than November? Surely it's happened sometime. Anyway, I've taken this opportunity to take some pic's of the Christmas Cherry Blossom and Azalea blooms for my ancestors to marvel over some day. probably last year. Last November was a top 5 cold Nov then Dec turned mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 The climate seems to be in the midst of an aggressive redefinition of normal. Scary but unfortunately true. How long before we have Atlanta's snow climo...wait, maybe we are there already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Without a doubt we have the most optimistic bunch in this region, it's quite funny actually. I know I harp on warmth alot but think about it...since Jan 2011 we have had 3 BN winters months out of the past 14 and soon to be 15 including this Jan. Warmth has ruled. This should flip in the next few years, theoretically as we enter a cool AMO phase, I hope. "we" haven't, some have but not all. My area finished average in snowfall the last two years. I don't see any reason to be down on this year either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Some here would be pessimistic about snow, even if it was falling outside. Others buy snow shovels based off the 7 day GFS. Everyone just needs to relax, we are exiting the pattern of death and are entering the pattern of unknown.. Chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 That argument, uh I mean discussion, thread is on fire today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Without a doubt we have the most optimistic bunch in this region, it's quite funny actually. I know I harp on warmth alot but think about it...since Jan 2011 we have had 3 BN winters months out of the past 14 and soon to be 15 including this Jan. Warmth has ruled. This should flip in the next few years, theoretically as we enter a cool AMO phase, I hope. Maybe....Possibly.....I hope too....one day The climate seems to be in the midst of an aggressive redefinition of normal. Indeed sir "we" haven't, some have but not all. My area finished average in snowfall the last two years. I don't see any reason to be down on this year either. I wouldn't either if I were you You have a nice advantage over those of us down here between the portals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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