MJO812 Posted January 1, 2016 Share Posted January 1, 2016 Gefs has a redeveloper for day 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Gefs has a redeveloper for day 8 The storm arrives during our pattern change which yields a mixed bag of results. The pattern from 1/10 or even a day before looks very intriguing though. Imagine strong but not severe blocking coupled with a very strong STJ. My dream pattern would be 09/10 with less blocking (weaker -NAO) for late Jan/Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Until you can post more info about it, or explain what the graphs mean, just keep them out for now. Thanks. Finally! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Classic storm would be ideally at the bench mark correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Classic storm would be ideally at the bench mark correct?Yes. 40/70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Dt, saying the model he likes the best right now has it coming out at the bench mark. Now he's crazy yes,but he has been right now and then lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Dt, saying the model he likes the best right now has it coming out at the bench mark. Now he's crazy yes,but he has been right now and then lolthe best of bad model options to use at d10 is ensemble guidance. Specifically the EPS. The EPS looks VERY good for an east coast storm around 1/12. Details TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 the best of bad model options to use at d10 is ensemble guidance. Specifically the EPS. The EPS looks VERY good for an east coast storm around 1/12. Details TBD. Yes that what he said. Let's see Edgar the 00z gfs has in store for us tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 GFS has a warm inland runner for the 11-12th storm while the GGEM has a coastal snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 2, 2016 Author Share Posted January 2, 2016 What a EPO block on the gfs. Sheesh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 GFS is frigid cold followed by rain.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 A lot of storms on the GFS and GGEM. GGEM is more favorable for our area. At this point, take the ensembles. The op runs have been showing many solutions. GEFS has a really nice look with storm 1 and 2. It has a coastal signal for storm 2 and really cold. Op, you are on crack. Go to sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 2, 2016 Author Share Posted January 2, 2016 Ggem for the win day 10? Lol I know but it looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Ggem for the win day 10? Lol I know but it looks nice What does it look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 2, 2016 Author Share Posted January 2, 2016 What does it look like? It crushes us with over a foot of snow. Day 10 but it looked nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Happy D 10 New Year: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 That's horrible for long island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Anyone living in Passiac county feel that earthquake this morning? http://www.nj.com/passaic-county/index.ssf/2016/01/yes_that_was_an_earthquake_in_nj.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 That's horrible for long island I think LI is going to have to endure some heartache until we get into late January or early Feb.. The SST's are well above normal so any wind component NOT NNE is a problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Mods, if need be move this to banter but I really want this seen: Snowman19 and to a greater extent doorman...instead of the passive-aggressive rebutting to posts by blue wave, PB and others, can you please draw the line in the sand and clearly state your position on Jan/feb? PB and others who feel the AO, EPO, PNA and the coming SWE will overtake the pattern have clearly given a Forecast that is backed by reasoning. They drew their line in the sand and have clearly stated their thoughts and agenda (if u will). If you have an opposing viewpoint, that's fine and respectable....But please, for the sake of the board...draw your line in the sand...make a forecast and put it out there instead of refuting others hard work. This is in no respect to doorman and snowman19, as I respect you both for posting your passion on this board. I'm just asking for you to post it in a more genuine and clear manner, so that we have a clear idea of where exactly it is that you stand. Thanks Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The CMC ENS and EPS are colder than the GEFS. But even the warmer GFS has lows dropping back into the teens after January 10th for NYC. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=knyc It doesn't really pay to speculate on any individual snow potential until the Euro and the ensemble mean show something within the 120 hr window. This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Mods, if need be move this to banter but I really want this seen: Snowman19 and to a greater extent doorman...instead of the passive-aggressive rebutting to posts by blue wave, PB and others, can you please draw the line in the sand and clearly state your position on Jan/feb? PB and others who feel the AO, EPO, PNA and the coming SWE will overtake the pattern have clearly given a Forecast that is backed by reasoning. They drew their line in the sand and have clearly stated their thoughts and agenda (if u will). If you have an opposing viewpoint, that's fine and respectable....But please, for the sake of the board...draw your line in the sand...make a forecast and put it out there instead of refuting others hard work. This is in no respect to doorman and snowman19, as I respect you both for posting your passion on this board. I'm just asking for you to post it in a more genuine and clear manner, so that we have a clear idea of where exactly it is that you stand. Thanks Sent from my iPhone 48 genuine and clearly no snowstorms on the horizon arctic intrusions will be modified throughout the month http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_max.shtml http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/prec_nhsm_animation.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Arctic intrusions are always modified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Arctic intrusions are always modified. "The month of jan will not finish below normal temp wise and a six inch snowstorm for the metro will be very hard to come by" Book It!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Arctic intrusions are always modified. Exactly. Even on Tuesday now, the low is 19 for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 The month of jan will not finish below normal temp wise and a six inch snowstorm for the metro will be very hard to come by Book It!!!! Come on, this is a bold statement when everyone knows that the pattern moving forward will be a good one for snow and cold. I think the first storm will be hard for the coast to see snow but the second one will be a much more favorable outcome ( if it does happen). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 Looks like some regression regarding the -AO/NAO today. The pattern looks good for more cold shots this month but maybe everyone's rushing things when it comes to snow. Doorman has a point about snow chances and personally I don't think we get a 6"+ storm until Feb. If only the Nino weren't so powerful we'd be raking it in already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 GFS OP is all over the place with the 1/11 storm. It goes from an inland runner at Oz to way out to sea at 6z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 "The month of jan will not finish below normal temp wise and a six inch snowstorm for the metro will be very hard to come by" Book It!!!! I am in agreement with Doorman. I have never wavered from my position that January will be above normal temperature wise and below normal snowfall wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 2, 2016 Share Posted January 2, 2016 I will post in a bit. Hide the women and children. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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