40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Enjoy, guys. This forum played as large a role in the damn thing as I did: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Looks to be a tremendous write up, as usual, and I look forward to reading the whole thing in the morning. I value your outlooks more highly than those of certain (boisterous) degreed mets, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2K4 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I'm not from the east but I thoroughly enjoy reading great, sound, and well-written analysis as pertaining to long range forecasting. Very VERY well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Great writeup Ray! Good luck on verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Obviously many hours were spent on the forecast and subsequent writeup. Great learning tool for many on here..including some of the mets . While I vehemently disagree with most of it..I certainly hope you are 110% correct. Nice work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Excellent write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 What a weenie pic to start it out. Very well done, I skimmed through it because I will need a few minutes...but looks very well thought out and put together. I will say, despite a few anomalies in the snowfall last year that will always happen....that was a pretty dam good guess at snowfall for your cities. I was quite impressed at verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bairn Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Enjoy, guys. This forum played as large a role in the damn thing as I did: http://easternmassweather.blogspot.com Wow. I am much smarter for having been "forced" to read this. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Very good read and agree with it for the most part, well done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Even Michael Jordan approves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Awesome write up Ray! Only got to first half so far but already learned a lot that I didn't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Nice write-up. Detailed doesn't quite describe it adequately, I needed to take a break halfway through to finish. Lol at guaranteeing a HECS though, weenie. I would suggest another run through it to clean up the grammar and formatting...for example, at least on mobile, some of the paragraphs were formatted to split words into different lines which was difficult to read. Given the length of the post and the fact that you sat down and wrote it from start to finish in a single day, I can understand how it would be difficult to force yourself to go back and proofread the whole thing. My one other critique is that you spent a lot of time in the 2014-15 recap criticizing Cohen's postseason victory claims, but you then proceeded to use all the same indices that failed miserably last year to predict a negative N/AO this year. I felt like the failure of those indices last year, and thus the decreased confidence level in those indices as prediction tools from the level we thought/hoped existed prior to last year, could have been highlighted more in the discussion of your predicted -AO/-NAO for 2015-16. Overall, excellent job as usual. If your forecast fails, it is clear that you will come away with more knowledge than you started with to apply in future seasons. I will be watching the ensembles closely as we approach December for hints of that GOA low placement. Oh yeah, and you forgot to mention the fat starving squirrels and the lunar crater reflectivity cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Wut Tolland more than Wilmington? Lol, nice war and peace write up. Good review and synopsis. Totally disagree with the above but the rest seems plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Good job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Wow. I am much smarter for having been "forced" to read this. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Steve, what do you disagree with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Nice write-up. Detailed doesn't quite describe it adequately, I needed to take a break halfway through to finish. Lol at guaranteeing a HECS though, weenie. I would suggest another run through it to clean up the grammar and formatting...for example, at least on mobile, some of the paragraphs were formatted to split words into different lines which was difficult to read. Given the length of the post and the fact that you sat down and wrote it from start to finish in a single day, I can understand how it would be difficult to force yourself to go back and proofread the whole thing. My one other critique is that you spent a lot of time in the 2014-15 recap criticizing Cohen's postseason victory claims, but you then proceeded to use all the same indices that failed miserably last year to predict a negative N/AO this year. I felt like the failure of those indices last year, and thus the decreased confidence level in those indices as prediction tools from the level we thought/hoped existed prior to last year, could have been highlighted more in the discussion of your predicted -AO/-NAO for 2015-16. Overall, excellent job as usual. If your forecast fails, it is clear that you will come away with more knowledge than you started with to apply in future seasons. I will be watching the ensembles closely as we approach December for hints of that GOA low placement. Oh yeah, and you forgot to mention the fat starving squirrels and the lunar crater reflectivity cycle. I meant a KU....not necessarily Super storm '93, of the blizzard or '78. It maybe a hugger, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Nice write-up. Detailed doesn't quite describe it adequately, I needed to take a break halfway through to finish. Lol at guaranteeing a HECS though, weenie. I would suggest another run through it to clean up the grammar and formatting...for example, at least on mobile, some of the paragraphs were formatted to split words into different lines which was difficult to read. Given the length of the post and the fact that you sat down and wrote it from start to finish in a single day, I can understand how it would be difficult to force yourself to go back and proofread the whole thing. My one other critique is that you spent a lot of time in the 2014-15 recap criticizing Cohen's postseason victory claims, but you then proceeded to use all the same indices that failed miserably last year to predict a negative N/AO this year. I felt like the failure of those indices last year, and thus the decreased confidence level in those indices as prediction tools from the level we thought/hoped existed prior to last year, could have been highlighted more in the discussion of your predicted -AO/-NAO for 2015-16. Overall, excellent job as usual. If your forecast fails, it is clear that you will come away with more knowledge than you started with to apply in future seasons. I will be watching the ensembles closely as we approach December for hints of that GOA low placement. Oh yeah, and you forgot to mention the fat starving squirrels and the lunar crater reflectivity cycle. Your mobile is the issue. I did not criticize the theory, I criticized his unwillingness to acknowledge last year's shortcoming. Good methodology, bad season...just admit it instead of distorting reality. One failed season in this business does not significantly its validity. Perceptions, sure, but those are in fact misperceptions I suggest you read it again on a laptop because you have missed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Took more than a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Steve, what do you disagree with? you getting less snow than Kev Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Great write up Ray. Even though I live in the SE it's always good to see your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 you getting less snow than Kev I think huggers and elevation events. We'll see...I am due to beat him consecutively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Great write up Ray. Even though I live in the SE it's always good to see your thoughts. Yea, you can usually get the gist relative to other locales along the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Nice novel....took me most of the train ride to read it. Hopefully you are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Nice novel....took me most of the train ride to read it. Hopefully you are correct. Hey, at least I passed the time for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 BTW, why is there all sorts of little kids toys buried in snow on your first pic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 BTW, why is there all sorts of little kids toys buried in snow on your first pic? That isn't my yard...I just wanted to capture the fence for perspective. It was taken from my yard. Neighbor has grandkids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 not reading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 That isn't my yard...I just wanted to capture the fence for perspective. It was taken from my yard. Neighbor has grandkids. Good pic. I think people forget to always try to take weather pics with the ability of the reader to get a perspective of what you are trying to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 12, 2015 Author Share Posted November 12, 2015 Good pic. I think people forget to always try to take weather pics with the ability of the reader to get a perspective of what you are trying to show. Even the toys themselves add value within that context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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