H2Otown_WX Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 I had 15 inches of snow in 97, 9 in 82, and 11 in 87, I average 13 Really? Alright that means we'll get lucky a couple times hopefully. Very small sample size of course and I didn't take into account PDO phase/Nino type. Did you get some from that 12/23 gravity wave ORH storm that Will talks about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 3-4 months more of wx boredom. What a terrible wx year. Good Lord Thank God the spring/summer should be active with severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Really? Alright that means we'll get lucky a couple times hopefully. Very small sample size of course and I didn't take into account PDO phase/Nino type. Did you get some from that 12/23 gravity wave ORH storm that Will talks about? 97? had 3 inches on the 27th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Thank God the spring/summer should be active with severe Lol, you dreaming again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 In all seriousness..it's uncanny how we got thru these massive long stretches of dry..like 3-6 weeks and then 1 rain event and then right back to dry. Can't recall a pattern like that in recent memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 In all seriousness..it's uncanny how we got thru these massive long stretches of dry..like 3-6 weeks and then 1 rain event and then right back to dry. Can't recall a pattern like that in recent memoryUp here it's seemed pretty normal...17 days this month with measurable precipitation, totaling 3.80". Longest dry stretch was 7 days between the 0.43" on the 1st and 0.65" on the 8th.3-6 weeks between rain events seems excessive. Bring some stats next time instead of just throwing out guesses. 3 weeks sounds about right for the longest between rain events, not 6 weeks. It's not uncommon to go 2-3 weeks between big QPF events, same in winter. You don't get 1 foot snowstorms every week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Up here it's seemed pretty normal...17 days this month with measurable precipitation, totaling 3.80". Longest dry stretch was 7 days between the 0.43" on the 1st and 0.65" on the 8th. 3-6 weeks between rain events seems excessive. Bring some stats next time instead of just throwing out guesses. 3 weeks sounds about right for the longest between rain events, not 6 weeks. It's not uncommon to go 2-3 weeks between big QPF events, same in winter. You don't get 1 foot snowstorms every week. There's been several couple week dry stretches with little or no measurable in SNE going back to May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Lol, you dreaming again? If this Nino tanks and goes into Nina territory which some models insist will happen, all years in which that happened featured very active seasons from the Plains into the Northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 There's been several couple week dry stretches with little or no measurable in SNE going back to MayYeah couple week stretches are different than 3-6 week stretches, though.BDL's longest dry stretch this month was 11 days but during that stretch there were three days with traces recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Yeah couple week stretches are different than 3-6 week stretches, though. BDL's longest dry stretch this month was 11 days but during that stretch there were three days with traces recorded. Had a 17 day stretch here when convection kept missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 3-4 months more of wx boredom. What a terrible wx year. Good Lord Yeah, February and March were terrible. June a little bit. All three ranking in the top 10 for coldest in the last 31 years or more. August was another top 10 but on the warm side. Yeah, it's been a terrible year. Hopefully next February and March are as terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 128" of boredom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 128" of boredom.110 of meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I literally had 128" of meh/boredom, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 The hail dinging everyone's car was especially boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I literally had 128" of meh/boredom, haha. It is quite funny how a routine Stowe winter is such epicosity here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 It is quite funny how a routine Stowe winter is such epicosity here lol.How it falls matters too...we both had a similar total but took completely different ways of getting there haha. Mine was October-April, with slow and steady 1-8" snows. Yours was like a 30-day blitz of Winter Storm Warning after Winter Storm Warning. Such a snoozer way to get to that total compared with how you did it lol. Literally 128" of meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 How it falls matters too...we both had a similar total but took completely different ways of getting there haha. Mine was October-April, with slow and steady 1-8" snows. Yours was like a 30-day blitz of Winter Storm Warning after Winter Storm Warning. Such a snoozer way to get to that total compared with how you did it lol. Literally 128" of meh. Oh yeah of course. Just thinking in a general sense though. I still couldn't get over Feb 2012. Your posts about 12" of powder was definitely Uzi swallowing. But that's how it goes in the Greens. It's always going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 How it falls matters too...we both had a similar total but took completely different ways of getting there haha. Mine was October-April, with slow and steady 1-8" snows. Yours was like a 30-day blitz of Winter Storm Warning after Winter Storm Warning. Such a snoozer way to get to that total compared with how you did it lol. Literally 128" of meh. I've often talked about how the average snowfall in Ithaca, NY and ORH were the same...when I arrived in Ithaca, I expected a similar type winter...I was ignorant of the way they got their snow and the nuances of terrain, etc, etc. By the 3rd winter there, I was ripping my eyes out for a synoptic snowfall over 8 inches. We couldn't get them. We'd get countless 1-3/2-5" events...often on multi-band NW flow LES and clippers or on the fringe of a nor easter. Then, we'd warm up on SW winds...torch into the 40s and 50s before a FROPA would make it -5F 24-36 hours later...and do it all over again. We couldn't generate a deep snowpack over 15" really. It wasn't until then having experienced it...and of course studied it more as a result....that I really appreciated how good we have it in interior SNE. ORH just destroys ITH when it comes to double digit snowfalls...it isn't even close. But ITH is probably right up there with a place like Stowe for the number of days with measurable, they just don't get every much, lol...and they don't have the luxury of getting a 2 foot upslope or LES event like Stowe...we were out of the max zone for LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 If this Nino tanks and goes into Nina territory which some models insist will happen, all years in which that happened featured very active seasons from the Plains into the Northeast Severe season really can't get much worse than what we've been seeing. This Nino has a long way to come down to get to Nina status, so I doubt if it makes it to official Nina status prior to next summer, but the rapid fade may be more important than the actual state come Spring/Summer. Can't take anything to the bank though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Severe season really can't get much worse than what we've been seeing. This Nino has a long way to come down to get to Nina status, so I doubt if it makes it to official Nina status prior to next summer, but the rapid fade may be more important than the actual state come Spring/Summer. Can't take anything to the bank though. A lot of times the atmosphere will take on the state, regardless of the value. For instance once it starts to tank, we will see a Nina response as the atmosphere adjusts, regardless if 3.4 is in Nino territory. The trend > actual sst value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Severe season really can't get much worse than what we've been seeing. This Nino has a long way to come down to get to Nina status, so I doubt if it makes it to official Nina status prior to next summer, but the rapid fade may be more important than the actual state come Spring/Summer. Can't take anything to the bank though. This is what will be a huge key moving into the severe weather season. The one thing we don't want to have happen though is influences working to weaken the STJ...if we see a very active STJ through the winter and lasting into the spring that can be huge for severe weather season. What I would see with a rapid decline is much more of a likelihood of trough/ridge/trough type pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 A lot of times the atmosphere will take on the state, regardless of the value. For instance once it starts to tank, we will see a Nina response as the atmosphere adjusts, regardless if 3.4 is in Nino territory. The trend > actual sst value. Yeah that's basically what I was getting at. Just worded it a bit differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 A lot of times the atmosphere will take on the state, regardless of the value. For instance once it starts to tank, we will see a Nina response as the atmosphere adjusts, regardless if 3.4 is in Nino territory. The trend > actual sst value.why is it Nina like now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 why is it Nina like now? I think it's just some sort of CCKW or MJO deal. You can definitely have those temporary features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I think it's just some sort of CCKW or MJO deal. You can definitely have those temporary features.really haven't seen a full blown Nino look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 I've often talked about how the average snowfall in Ithaca, NY and ORH were the same...when I arrived in Ithaca, I expected a similar type winter...I was ignorant of the way they got their snow and the nuances of terrain, etc, etc. By the 3rd winter there, I was ripping my eyes out for a synoptic snowfall over 8 inches. We couldn't get them. We'd get countless 1-3/2-5" events...often on multi-band NW flow LES and clippers or on the fringe of a nor easter. Then, we'd warm up on SW winds...torch into the 40s and 50s before a FROPA would make it -5F 24-36 hours later...and do it all over again. We couldn't generate a deep snowpack over 15" really. It wasn't until then having experienced it...and of course studied it more as a result....that I really appreciated how good we have it in interior SNE. ORH just destroys ITH when it comes to double digit snowfalls...it isn't even close. But ITH is probably right up there with a place like Stowe for the number of days with measurable, they just don't get every much, lol...and they don't have the luxury of getting a 2 foot upslope or LES event like Stowe...we were out of the max zone for LES. Yeah out there in central and western NY it's gotta be incredibly hard for good synoptic snows. Pretty much WAA overrunning would be your main mode, right? Hard to get over 8" on WAA and I know I've seen them bust quite a bit out there because of mid-level dry slots ripping north through Central NY a lot earlier than forecast. Getting a deform band or CCB has got to be real difficult as you need a Hudson Valley runner probably? Growing up in Albany the climate is much more like SNE than central NY...almost all the snow is synoptic, and although there has been a dearth of big storms there recently, ALB does ok overall for big synoptic snowstorms. A heck of a lot better than ITH I'm sure. For all the biatching I do over synoptic snows lately, we do fine climb-wise for big storms, but are like ALB in that there's been a lull in deeper interior storms lately. The past couple cold winters have been so favorable for coastal fun, it's left us nickel and diming our way to average.* Sooner or later that'll switch up. Regardless, SNE's bread and butter is big snowstorms. You guys definitely have the highest percentage of snowfall from large storms of anyone in the northeast. Even by the time you get up to Dendrite I bet the the average single storm total is decreasing. I'm thinking if you took the total seasonal snowfall and divided by number of days with snowfall that winter, somewhere near ORH would be the max for highest average individual snowfall. *When having these discussions I'm talking about my front yard. I know some like to group me in with the ski area but from a climo standpoint they are fairly different. Yes the mountains get big 12-18"+ events every year (usually multiple times) but town is a bit different even though it's only a few miles away. And it's easier and better for comparisons around New England because it's useless comparing picnic table climo with others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 really haven't seen a full blown Nino look Yeah perhaps it's just a low sample too. As far as Nino features go, big rains in Death Valley...TX floods....even the rain in the Chilean desert....all calling cards for Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Yeah out there in central and western NY it's gotta be incredibly hard for good synoptic snows. Pretty much WAA overrunning would be your main mode, right? Hard to get over 8" on WAA and I know I've seen them bust quite a bit out there because of mid-level dry slots ripping north through Central NY a lot earlier than forecast. Getting a deform band or CCB has got to be real difficult as you need a Hudson Valley runner probably? Growing up in Albany the climate is much more like SNE than central NY...almost all the snow is synoptic, and although there has been a dearth of big storms there recently, ALB does ok overall for big synoptic snowstorms. A heck of a lot better than ITH I'm sure. For all the biatching I do over synoptic snows lately, we do fine climb-wise for big storms, but are like ALB in that there's been a lull in deeper interior storms lately. The past couple cold winters have been so favorable for coastal fun, it's left us nickel and diming our way to average.* Sooner or later that'll switch up. Regardless, SNE's bread and butter is big snowstorms. You guys definitely have the highest percentage of snowfall from large storms of anyone in the northeast. Even by the time you get up to Dendrite I bet the the average single storm total is decreasing. I'm thinking if you took the total seasonal snowfall and divided by number of days with snowfall that winter, somewhere near ORH would be the max for highest average individual snowfall. *When having these discussions I'm talking about my front yard. I know some like to group me in with the ski area but from a climo standpoint they are fairly different. Yes the mountains get big 12-18"+ events every year (usually multiple times) but town is a bit different even though it's only a few miles away. on my phone but those stats can be gleaned on Climod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 Yeah couple week stretches are different than 3-6 week stretches, though. BDL's longest dry stretch this month was 11 days but during that stretch there were three days with traces recorded. Basically BDL has never had a 5 or 6 week dry stretch. So there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.