wxduncan Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 "THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRADUAL SOUTHWESTWARD PIVOTING OF THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME/RAINFALL AXIS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL INCREASE THE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE UPSTATE AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND ALSO SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WHERE VERY STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW IS BEING FORECAST BY THE MODELS" http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=546&yr=2015 Would that include the foothills of NC? With the upslope effect and such. I know last week in Morganton it sure did help us out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Models really cutting back on totals now for the upstate. Brings back fond memories of many past winter fails. NAM has me at less than an inch through 36. Feels like we have multiple historic storms forecast every year that always fail to materialize here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Won't be long before Ladson, Summerville, Goose Creek, North Charleston are the same way. I picked up over 7" of rain locally and a deluge this morning on my way to work, I could not see 100 ft in front of me on Ladson Rd. In my 43 years, I have never seen anything like this, this prolonged incessant 1" per hour+ rain rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Models really cutting back on totals now for the upstate. Brings back fond memories of many past winter fails. NAM has me at less than an inch through 36. Feels like we have multiple historic storms forecast every year that always fail to materialize here. Models should not be looked at now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 The radar is reloading along the coast to cae. See if it gets to the upstate. Feels kind of weird. This is like cheering on an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Won't be long before Ladson, Summerville, Goose Creek, North Charleston are the same way. I picked up over 7" of rain locally and a deluge this morning on my way to work, I could not see 100 ft in front of me on Ladson Rd. In my 43 years, I have never seen anything like this, this prolonged incessant 1" per hour+ rain rates. Be safe out there Mike It doesn't look to stop anytime soon either Models should not be looked at now Indeed The radar is reloading along the coast to cae. See if it gets to the upstate. Feels kind of weird. This is like cheering on an ice storm. Indeed Radar looks really good for a great afternoon in front of the tv watching football Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Won't be long before Ladson, Summerville, Goose Creek, North Charleston are the same way. I picked up over 7" of rain locally and a deluge this morning on my way to work, I could not see 100 ft in front of me on Ladson Rd. In my 43 years, I have never seen anything like this, this prolonged incessant 1" per hour+ rain rates. The parking lot at the Harris Teeter on Harborview Rd (which never floods) is flooded today. It's incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 IMO, Totals are going to be lower the father inland you go b/c convection is extending much further out into the atlantic than the models showed... Some of the heaviest rain is falling offshore right now. It seems like those storms are running out of steam and creating subsidence over the upstate right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Lots of whining and complaining going on in here with no basis in facts and numbers. (I do appreciate the thoughtful posts with data, images, and analysis.) Confirmation bias FTW: "Because I didn't get the exact amounts forecasted today, I never get to cash in. I live in the worst place in the world for extreme weather. The skies hate me and MBY. What did I ever do to this ULL to deserve this treatment? Hurricane? What hurricane? This is a drizzle storm. Yada, yada, yada..." Take it to the banter thread, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Here you can see the GFS was showing the best rates over the midlands of SC right now. But in reality, the best rates are falling under that plume of cold cloud tops out in the atlantic right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Seems like charleston is getting what Columbia was suppose to get and Columbia is getting gsp numbers. Gsp will get 5 inches I guess. I think it is bc the cane is further out. No complaints here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Jim Cantore is live at falls park, on the bridge! The river is super high! Time to go photobomb! In Greenville! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Great pics and story about historic flooding in Charleston on Drudge lead story. Che k it out, on phone so can't post link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Its almost like Joaquin says "if I cant make landfall on you South Carolina, I will bury your azz with my rains". Looking at that little tail from Joaquin on radar is just nuts. Ties right into Charleston. Never seen anything quite like that. "Joaquin and his progeny will rule for a thousand years!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Lots of whining and complaining going on in here with no basis in facts and numbers. (I do appreciate the thoughtful posts with data, images, and analysis.) Confirmation bias FTW: "Because I didn't get the exact amounts forecasted today, I never get to cash in. I live in the worst place in the world for extreme weather. The skies hate me and MBY. What did I ever do to this ULL to deserve this treatment? Hurricane? What hurricane? This is a drizzle storm. Yada, yada, yada..." Take it to the banter thread, please. This! Seems like charleston is getting what Columbia was suppose to get and Columbia is getting gsp numbers. Gsp will get 5 inches I guess. I think it is bc the cane is further out. No complaints here Do you even read this thread? sigh Jim Cantore is live at falls park, on the bridge! The river is super high! Time to go photobomb! In Greenville! The river is looking a little wild behind him. I'll be looking for ya Radar is primedhttp://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=cae&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes and I'm watching gameday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Downtown Charleston is CLOSED right now for the next few hours. Can't get in unless you're already there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 There's a second mini band, N of the main band, that looks to be headed right towards CLT ! Not what they need after last nights flooding! This is the most TWC meteorologists I've seen live shooting in the Carolinas in a long time ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Great pics and story about historic flooding in Charleston on Drudge lead story. Che k it out, on phone so can't post link http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20151003/PC16/151009754/1005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Sun's out in Raleigh! (well, southern Wake) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 http://www.postandcourier.com/article/20151003/PC16/151009754/1005that's crazy. I have a friend who lives in Charleston who sent me pictures of water up to the doors of cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Just an awful situation here. The list of roads closed is too numerous to list. Tornadoes possible now from the storms that are coming in now. Wind gusts over 30 mph with the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Just an awful situation here. The list of roads closed is too numerous to list. Tornadoes possible now from the storms that are coming in now. Wind gusts over 30 mph with the rain. Just had a lightning strike and thunder in Goose Creek but the rains are moderate but the lightest it's been all morning. Already over 7" with some spots well over 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Folly Beach now closed off to non-residents. Pineapple fountain overflowed at Waterfront Park. This is like hurricane impacts here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 3, 2015 Author Share Posted October 3, 2015 Suns coming out in fort mill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 These are the roads closed just in the CITY of Charleston right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Won't be long before Ladson, Summerville, Goose Creek, North Charleston are the same way. I picked up over 7" of rain locally and a deluge this morning on my way to work, I could not see 100 ft in front of me on Ladson Rd. In my 43 years, I have never seen anything like this, this prolonged incessant 1" per hour+ rain rates. Damn man...stay safe. I can't imagine how bad things are going to be before it's all over. RAP does the same. Really brings it back farther into Georgia than I had thought it would. rap and harr have done a decent job this morning of picking up this west trend. I tell you yesterday/last evening it really looked like the heavy stuff was going to stay in south carolina. Models had me going from 12 inches to as little as an inch or even less...and it wasn't just one, but all of them except the euro and the 4km nam...but even those weren't impressive. Quite the turn around this morning though with every single one of them trending west and putting the athens/northeast ga area right back into it. Driving around most of the day, I've been absolutely amazed at how heavy the rain has been given the light returns on radar. Just outside of gainesville about an hour and half ago, it was an absolute downpour while radar returns weren't impressive at all. There was already some minor flooding and it hadn't been raining but maybe 10 minutes. Under estimation is Especially true here...as of about 15 minutes ago radar estimated less than 0.10 of an inch here..in reality I had already picked up just about exactly 1 inch. It's absolutely pouring here now with dbzs of only 15 to 20. So for those to the west, don't be deceived by how light the returns are because there is a lot more than meets the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 I noticed that FFC expanded their FFW to the Georgia border counties just south of me. Looks to me like that firehose of moisture isn't hitting a wall at the mountains so far. I've had 3.5" so far IMBY. BTW, TVA drained a lot of volume out of its reservoirs this week, so there should be more flood storage in the WNC mountains that are part of the TN river watershed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Just added, Dorchester County (except for Summerville) has a 6pm-7am curfew tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 No end in sight... Latest radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted October 3, 2015 Share Posted October 3, 2015 Charleston (CHS) has had 9.28" since the 12z observation on October 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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