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Rjay

9/30-10/5 Joaquin-Trough Interaction-MODELS

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Did anyone else hear that joaquin may be a cat 5 per latest recon flight? Preliminary report coming out.

Cant say i would be surprised. But just wow!

Truly incredible storm. fun to track, but thank goodness it appears OTS

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The same trough that should be tugging it North. If the trough doesn't dig as much and Joaquin can get far enough South it could theoretically miss.

Oh okay. Seems like a lot of variables to take into consideration.

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People in the US better hope the Euro is king. This thing is getting as strong as, dare I say, Katrina.

Prayers going out for the inhabitants of the Bahama Islands

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People in the US better hope the Euro is king. This thing is getting as strong as, dare I say, Katrina.

Prayers going out for the inhabitants of the Bahama Islands

 

...or any number of other high-end Category 4s in the Atlantic.

 

But "another Igor!" wouldn't be nearly as dramatic, would it?

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People in the US better hope the Euro is king. This thing is getting as strong as, dare I say, Katrina.

Prayers going out for the inhabitants of the Bahama Islands

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If this thing comes up the eastern seaboard, we are talking devastation. Sandy could be dethroned.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A

With all due respect, I feel this is an ignorant comment.  Completely different setup.  First and foremost (and probably all that needs to be said) is that Sandy merged with another strong LP system.

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Are people rooting for this to change path....seems in poor taste

I think people want a definitive answer. It's the thrill of the chase in the meantime.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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With all due respect, I feel this is an ignorant comment. Completely different setup. First and foremost (and probably all that needs to be said) is that Sandy merged with another strong LP system.

This has more in common with Irene then Sandy.

And 931 while low is not cat 5

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I think people want a definitive answer. It's the thrill of the chase in the meantime.

Sent from my iPad

This board is for weather enthusiasts. Extreme weather will always be cheered on by the majority.

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With all due respect, I feel this is an ignorant comment. Completely different setup. First and foremost (and probably all that needs to be said) is that Sandy merged with another strong LP system.

No offense taken. I should clarify. I'm not talking about the statistical and meteorological anomaly. What I mean was the potential for formidable to extreme damage along a wide swath, and the element of being caught by surprise potentially.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk

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People in the US better hope the Euro is king. This thing is getting as strong as, dare I say, Katrina.

Prayers going out for the inhabitants of the Bahama Islands

Not quite. A bad storm, but Katrina was a 175mph 902mb beast. A ways to go yet to get there.

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Not quite. A bad storm, but Katrina was a 175mph 902mb beast. A ways to go yet to get there.

I meant in terms of Saffir-Simpson. I should have clarified. Dont think this will touch that pressure.

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URNT12 KNHC 012343
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015
A. 01/23:12:40Z
B. 22 deg 51 min N
074 deg 25 min W
C. 700 mb 2523 m
D. 116 kt
E. 258 deg 16 nm
F. 341 deg 123 kt
G. 256 deg 18 nm
H. 932 mb
I. 10 C / 3045 m
J. 19 C / 3047 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C12
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0911A JOAQUIN OB 06
MAX FL WIND 123 KT 256 / 18 NM 23:06:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 240 / 12 KT
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 062 / 13 NM FROM FL CNTR

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URNT12 KNHC 012343

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112015

A. 01/23:12:40Z

B. 22 deg 51 min N

074 deg 25 min W

C. 700 mb 2523 m

D. 116 kt

E. 258 deg 16 nm

F. 341 deg 123 kt

G. 256 deg 18 nm

H. 932 mb

I. 10 C / 3045 m

J. 19 C / 3047 m

K. 6 C / NA

L. CLOSED

M. C12

N. 12345 / 7

O. 0.02 / 2 nm

P. AF300 0911A JOAQUIN OB 06

MAX FL WIND 123 KT 256 / 18 NM 23:06:30Z

CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 240 / 12 KT

MAX FL TEMP 19 C 062 / 13 NM FROM FL CNTR

 

932. Sheesh

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Honestly, everyone along the east coast (FL to NY) still needs to be watching this. With so many ups and downs with the models this season, I'm not ready to call ANY solution yet, especially with this storm still another 24-36 hours off...

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Not quite. A bad storm, but Katrina was a 175mph 902mb beast. A ways to go yet to get there.

I was going to defend Ralph here if he was referring g to surge. Katrina was a weakening 3 at landfall but the surge remained a cat 5 or very close to it, slamming into a (in)famously low lying area. Sandy's surge was incredible in parts due the the New York bight as well as the sheer size of the storm.

Intensity? I have to agree this would have a way to go to get to Katrina levels.

The only model I hug is the SLOSH lol

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