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We hoist, huge drought busting rains with potential coastal flooding. Sep 29-30

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Its going to be pretty hard to escape this setup over the next 4-5 days without a lot of rain.

 

Folks are just going to have to have realistic expectations.  When models are spitting out 6-8' of rain then all of a sudden back down to 4-5'' that should cause no concern for panic.  3-4'' of rain would still be incredibly welcomed and that would also reduce (hopefully) impacts from flooding.  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

What is the PRE?  I wasn't rooting for 6 plus inches, but just like in the winter, all models going crazy with all these crazy outputs, and the mainstream media start alerting that there could be a very serious situation unfolding for the local area/SNE, and then the Euro comes out, and Poof, it's gone.  The Euro that Steve posted showed about two inches for alot of SNE with the two events combined.  That's a big difference from what we were thinking just this morning.  But that two inches will be better than anything we've had all summer long, so thats a positive. 

 

PRE = Predecessor Rain Event

 

They are usually caused by an axis of moisture transported from the tropical cyclone to the south by the trough (polar jet)...and can be enhanced by LL and ML frontogenesis as well as jet streaks. They can be very prolific rainfall producers because the moisture is very abundant on the east side of the trough along the theta-e ridge axis...its coming from the tropical system to the south....even if the actual system landfalls hundreds of miles away or recurves.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted

 I dunno...5"+ rain in the next 6 days qualifies as a big storm to me...

 

gfs_namer_144_precip_ptot.gif

The Euro doesn't have nearly that much in its latest operational run.  But who knows?  We've all seen this movie before anyway, you know, the one where massive amounts of precip are forecast 4-5 days before, only to be trimmed back to reality.  A couple inches will go along way in helping dowse these dry conditions though, and that's a good thing.  I guess my point was more that the big bad storm/rain idea seems to be coming back to reality very quickly today.  

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

The Euro doesn't have nearly that much in its latest operational run.  But who knows?  We've all seen this movie before anyway, you know, the one where massive amounts of precip are forecast 4-5 days before, only to be trimmed back to reality.  A couple inches will go along way in helping dowse these dry conditions though, and that's a good thing.  I guess my point was more that the big bad storm/rain idea seems to be coming back to reality very quickly today.  

Big, massive rain events..very rarely come to fruition except under localized areas. These things always end up overhyped. 98% of rainstorms are meh and hyped. 

 

Oct 2005 was the exception

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Gwhizkids

Gwhizkids

Posted
Posted

The Euro doesn't have nearly that much in its latest operational run.  But who knows?  We've all seen this movie before anyway, you know, the one where massive amounts of precip are forecast 4-5 days before, only to be trimmed back to reality.  A couple inches will go along way in helping dowse these dry conditions though, and that's a good thing.  I guess my point was more that the big bad storm/rain idea seems to be coming back to reality very quickly today.  

Of course.  But its one run (not to say subsequent runs won't show the same or even less).  Don't bathe with your toaster yet!

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted

PRE = Predecessor Rain Event

 

They are usually caused by an axis of moisture transported from the tropical cyclone to the south by the trough (polar jet)...and can be enhanced by LL and ML frontogenesis as well as jet streaks. They can be very prolific rainfall producers because the moisture is very abundant on the east side of the trough along the theta-e ridge axis...its coming from the tropical system to the south....even if the actual system landfalls hundreds of miles away or recurves.

Thank You Will for that great explanation, I now understand.  And with that, perhaps we get more than just a couple inches for the region.  Please don't get me wrong, I didn't want 10 inches of rain at all.  I was just pointing out that all of a sudden the very serious scenario, doesn't seem so serious for us here in SNE at the moment.  Of course these solutions could flip around just as quickly again as we all know.  Interesting nonetheless.  

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Depends on situation. May 2006 was widespread. Even March 2010 covered a large area.

The point is there was all these massive 3-6 or 5-10+ inch amounts forecast from DCA to Maine..from just about every wx outlet. You knew nothing like that would happen over a large region. Always fairly localized. Rain events are so boring.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

The point is there was all these massive 3-6 or 5-10+ inch amounts forecast from DCA to Maine..from just about every wx outlet. You knew nothing like that would happen over a large region. Always fairly localized. Rain events are so boring.

 

You should probably stop taking every twitter model output as a verbatim forecast

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

The point is there was all these massive 3-6 or 5-10+ inch amounts forecast from DCA to Maine..from just about every wx outlet. You knew nothing like that would happen over a large region. Always fairly localized. Rain events are so boring.

I think a large area when all is said and done will have at least 3-6. I knew you would downplay at some point.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted

Well if a large area does get at least 3-6 inches of rain, then I would have to agree with you Scott, Yes that would be a big rain event for the area.  I'm having trouble right now believing at least 3-6 inches, but I'm certainly no Meteorologist, so I'll buy into your idea on that, being you are the Pro, and I'm the Joe lol.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Well if a large area does get at least 3-6 inches of rain, then I would have to agree with you Scott, Yes that would be a big rain event for the area. I'm having trouble right now believing at least 3-6 inches, but I'm certainly no Meteorologist, so I'll buy into your idea on that, being you are the Pro, and I'm the Joe lol.

This is what I mean. From VA to ME, a large swath will have at least 3-6 by end of weekend. Will it be your backyard? I do not know.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

Well even the 2-4 by tomorrow night seems over hyped..Most places look like they'll get .50-2 inches..maybe a few higher amounts under convection

 

If we get 2-4 inches from ALY through CAR like the Euro EPS shows, it's hard to really cry foul on the forecasts. That's a pretty large area of heavy precip. It may not be your backyard, but that's not far off either.

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