We hoist, huge drought busting rains with potential coastal flooding. Sep 29-30

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm a little concerned parts of SNE may miss out on the heaviest of the rain. Models really like the heavy rain threat tomorrow across NNE where the best low level convergence is.

 

agreed ... this seems like one of those scenarios where the models will be correct about excessive QPF ... but haven't much clue about exactly where that will be. 

 

I could be wrong, and lord knows I don't have the time nor inclination to wrap up in obsessive over-view of every detail, over every run, of every guidance type like those who are much more deserving of Meteorological merit ... BUT, it just seems to me that big time QPF balls have been painted all over the maps from the Del Marva to southern Quebec over the last 3 days ... 

 

One thing that sticks out for me though, is that the frontalysis axis is really not clearing the coast by much if at all, and in fact, most guidance retrograde it back W -- as though some people may go from streets of coolish northerly strata drift, back into the nimbo chop with pixy showers.  Meanwhile, west of said axis is where a kind of "PRE" evolves...

Then we'll see if indeed a tropical entity makes a showing later in the week.  Perhaps interesting in a tedious way.

[CoolMike]

Is the CMC per tropical tidbits showing a Fujiwhara?

 

It sorta slings the low pressure back up into NE as it redevelops.

 

I'm hoping this thing doesn't deliver the huge amounts of rain that some are talking about.  I live in the Beaver Brook flood plain and I don't want any trouble.

 

Edit:  Sorry - alleged Fujiwhara around hour 96 with the lows down and west of Bermuda.

[Guvna]

October has had some prolific rainstorms with the combo of high PWAT air thanks to warm SSTs, but synoptics also aiding in squeezing out available moisture. Definitely one for the high terrain in western MA and SW NH to watch given issues at hand. 

I believe it was Oct. 2005 where I had just over 17" of rainfall for the month and one night it rained over 6". Ponds were over roads, roads washed out...crazy stuff.

[CT Rain]

With the westward trend, it's more likely we are not going to get slammed in round 1.

 

Though we still have to watch it closely...50 miles could make a big difference.

 

Yeah the boundary continues to tickle west a bit. Probably enough to keep the Sultan north of here. 

[WinterWolf]

I guess an inch is better than nothing at this point.  We need the moisture and every lil bit helps out.  As seems to be the case with many of these heavy precip events, they look like prolific producers for SNE, and then just before, they shift one way or the other and spare the area the heaviest of the precip. I agree we don't need 4-6 inches of rain, but a couple inches would be nice for most of the area. 

[weatherwiz]

I would really like more than 1/2" or 1" tomorrow. 

 

I wonder if the south coast could see a few strong t'storms tomorrow...NAM pretty beefy with elevated instability

[Ginx snewx]

I would really like more than 1/2" or 1" tomorrow. 

Nah, with weekend coming up big too, that works, really not into flooding

 

Yeah the boundary continues to tickle west a bit. Probably enough to keep the Sultan north of here. 

[ORH_wxman]

I guess an inch is better than nothing at this point.  We need the moisture and every lil bit helps out.  As seems to be the case with many of these heavy precip events, they look like prolific producers for SNE, and then just before, they shift one way or the other and spare the area the heaviest of the precip. I agree we don't need 4-6 inches of rain, but a couple inches would be nice for most of the area. 

 

There is still round 2 after this first 42-48 hours. I think there will be plenty of rain for everyone.

[weatherwiz]

I wouldn't be shocked to see SE MA get quite the soaking tomorrow...pretty hefty southerly/southeasterly LLJ pounding right into the region.  Probably a secondary max of rainfall there...maybe some areas seeing 2-3'' or a spot 4''?

[Damage In Tolland]

So we go from 3-6 tomorrow to 1/2-1 inch. Good Lord

[CoastalWx]

That little blob on the NAM is what Will and I were discussing. Sometimes these little blobs come up and muck around with the QPF forecasts. It might not be exactly the case here, but sometimes you get these convectively induced latent heat machine that have another bullseye. You can see it on the 4Km NAM too. It just goes to show you how tricky it is.

[TalcottWx]

So we go from 3-6 tomorrow to 1/2-1 inch. Good Lord

[ORH_wxman]

That little blob on the NAM is what Will and I were discussing. Sometimes these little blobs come up and muck around with the QPF forecasts. It might not be exactly the case here, but sometimes you get these convectively induced latent heat machine that have another bullseye. You can see it on the 4Km NAM too. It just goes to show you how tricky it is.

 

If we end up with the wave tracking further west/inland, there could definitely be some more convective elements involved. That won't be easy on the models.

[Modfan]

If we end up with the wave tracking further west/inland, there could definitely be some more convective elements involved. That won't be easy on the models.

I just saw a tweet from Ryan showing NHC further west off the NC coast by Sunday. We are still many days out, so I assume things can and will change.

[ORH_wxman]

I just saw a tweet from Ryan showing NHC further west off the NC coast by Sunday. We are still many days out, so I assume things can and will change.

 

Yeah that part can change a lot...I wasn't even talking about later in the week/weekend. I was referring to the wave tomorrow and tomorrow night.

[CT Rain]

Yeah that part can change a lot...I wasn't even talking about later in the week/weekend. I was referring to the wave tomorrow and tomorrow night.

 

NAM brings the storm over NC by 84 hours... NHC hundreds and hundreds of miles away. THis forecastw ill be a mess.

 

Also... the NAM is much more unstable during the day tomorrow. Totally a more convective look. 

[powderfreak]

NAM with 7" for SYR, lol.

5.4" for MVL.

These amounts are still staggering in a narrow zone. Crippling rains for the Adirondacks and Catskills...mountain stream saunas floating down the rivers.

Even the lowest in New England is still 2".

[Damage In Tolland]

The covered bridges idea from yesterday may work out

[weatherwiz]

NAM brings the storm over NC by 84 hours... NHC hundreds and hundreds of miles away. THis forecastw ill be a mess.

 

Also... the NAM is much more unstable during the day tomorrow. Totally a more convective look. 

 

 

yup...not incredibly sure how much I buy this though.  I'm sure we'll have some instability due to high moisture and higher dews but NAM may be a tad overdone.  The GFS though does have some as well so maybe a chance for a few strong t'storms somewhere..low topped embedded type stuff

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM is really smashing that LLJ into SE MA and giving a bullseye there.

 

 

[powderfreak]

The covered bridges idea from yesterday may work out

You know there are covered bridges in all New England states right?

[CoastalWx]

RGEM is really smashing that LLJ into SE MA and giving a bullseye there.

 

 

 

Yeah that's what the 4Km NAM does. Basically one of those big WAA blobs ahead of the front.  I always find these interesting to figure out. 

[CoastalWx]

GFS keeping the front west which looks fitting. Certainly one area with RA+. 

[dendrite]

No QPF worries with the 12Z suite up here so far.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah that's what the 4Km NAM does. Basically one of those big WAA blobs ahead of the front.  I always find these interesting to figure out. 

 

If there's significant convection on the east side, then it's going to be pretty tough. The GFS will probably be awful if that's the case since it is the worst model for convection.

[CoastalWx]

I don't think many of much to worry, unless you want 4+". Round two will help those who miss out on siggy rains perhaps. 

[CoastalWx]

This may be the biggest spread yet. 

 

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/modelsystem/data.cgi?basin=al&year=2015&storm=11&display=googlemap&latestrun=1

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

No QPF worries with the 12Z suite up here so far.

You can have it.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

So we go from 3-6 tomorrow to 1/2-1 inch. Good Lord

Already in winter meltdown mode I see.

[Jenkins]

S/E facing beaches are really going to take this on the chin. WW3 showing ~4-5 ft @ 13-14 second swell hitting LI/RI/SE Mass by Monday after multiple days of onshore winds. 

 

Lots can change but hopefully we don't see the type of erosion that NJ just saw.