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We hoist, huge drought busting rains with potential coastal flooding. Sep 29-30

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Well it's basically a forgone conclusion that NW sees one max from the quasi stationary front. What is still uncertain is whether there is another max over SNE somewhere. The runs that try and push the low over the south coast and cape would argue for another max over SNE. Probably somewhere in E/C MA and RI up into SE NH. The euro scenario of the low further west doesn't really give a second max down in our region. Just a shot of heavy rain.

This is only talking inside of 60h of course. The second part is pretty convoluted and could give a lot of heavy rain too.

 

Yeah pretty much. They'll be the one max just from the front alone as you said. Then we'll see if another one sets up as the front moves SE and any low develops. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Oh wow. The old school study done by Dave Vallee back in the 1990s. Yeah that's a good review for looking for the jackpot spots. Key is fetch direction and duration along with speed. This could be more useful in round 2 if round 1 keeps trending a bit west. Round 2 could have long duration.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Those graphics are only as good as the handling of Joaquin...just buyer beware. But yeah, overall both U-V and PWATs all anomalously high.

Even if J is out of the picture I'd argue the inflow alone is a prolific rainmaker. I have an employee named Joaquin, we call him J. great guy with an awesome work ethic. He will be hearing his name a lot it seems.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Coastal/Any other mets, why does the HWRF have the tendency to blow up most storms into hurricanes/major hurricanes? Also, how is that useful in the overall process? Are their some things it is good at? Or is this just a misconception?

 

I think you need to look at the model physics. I can't say if it is 100% wrong, but it has a tendency to strengthen storms too much. Maybe it underestimates shear and dry air...maybe it's just is too aggressive.  I will say it looks to assume some tropical characteristics in the solutions that drive it into NJ. Given warm SSTs and environment, it may be right in that regard. But the strength? I take it with a grain of salt. 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Even if J is out of the picture I'd argue the inflow alone is a prolific rainmaker. I have an employee named Joaquin, we call him J. great guy with an awesome work ethic. He will be hearing his name a lot it seems.

 

Yeah if we have the front nearby, it's days of those fine droplet/warm process rain. LOL.

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radarman

radarman

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B and C are nice....A not so much.

 

Agree, we can pass on A in the fall.  Even in the winter I'm not sure we've ever been able to get snow in that setup... For about 1 or 2 model runs I thought we had a chance for it in Feb 2010, before it ended up NW.  

 

The only way the valley can orographically enhance anything is in the form of the moisture funnel, so no surprise that S winds at the surface were the identifying characteristic.  You need a stalled out front as a precursor for sustained return, then add in a little low level helicity for efficiency and we're soaked. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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For the weekend this is a great read and wow on the 850/250 sd's 

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/papers/HeavyrainspreprintWAF_stuart.pdf

 

 link to data they reference is here

 

http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/ensembles/gefsp.html

 

Was just looking at that...looks like the 6z guidance has a bit lower easterly SD's now (-2 to -3)

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Agree, we can pass on A in the fall.  Even in the winter I'm not sure we've ever been able to get snow in that setup... For about 1 or 2 model runs I thought we had a chance for it in Feb 2010, before it ended up NW.  

 

The only way the valley can orographically enhance anything is in the form of the moisture funnel, so no surprise that S winds at the surface were the identifying characteristic.  You need a stalled out front as a precursor for sustained return, then add in a little low level helicity for efficiency and we're soaked. 

 

 

Winter systems tend to be more dynamically driven anyway with those tighter baroclinic zones...though there are some exceptions when orographics play a huge role (like Dec '92...and perhaps Mar '13....certainly the rain event in Mar 2010 too).

 

This one will be interesting to track...if round 1 ends up mostly has a transient heavy rain burst from the frontal zone moving through, there is a decent chance round 2 will be a more long duration event anyway.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I'm a little concerned parts of SNE may miss out on the heaviest of the rain. Models really like the heavy rain threat tomorrow across NNE where the best low level convergence is.

 

With the westward trend, it's more likely we are not going to get slammed in round 1.

 

Though we still have to watch it closely...50 miles could make a big difference.

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