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October, at the moment peering forward, a wild stormy affair?


Typhoon Tip

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Maybe I am not thinking it through, but I wonder if that would reduce some of the crazy solutions, but still have some range of possibilities. Anecdotally, the ARW has performed better IMO, than the NMM. 

 

I think they're higher resolution too.

 

I'm sure we'll still get a bunch of crazy solutions in the winter when we have complex synoptic interactions going on. 

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I think they're higher resolution too.

 

I'm sure we'll still get a bunch of crazy solutions in the winter when we have complex synoptic interactions going on. 

 

Ugh, I know they are good for convection, but would be nice if they showed some stability with synoptic events. Hi resolution models have a tough time with complex interactions going on.  

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Ugh, I know they are good for convection, but would be nice if they showed some stability with synoptic events. Hi resolution models have a tough time with complex interactions going on.  

 

Yup. Just not very useful. Hopefully we get there one day - but at least the folks at NCEP are aware of the problems. 

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I don't get the sou' east wind fetish.....hardly ever damaging, especially interior.

I guess a bit more often at elevations, but bleh.

you are more likely to get widespread big winds from a low south of you than some squall line. we get monster southerly llj's most months of the cool season and hardly any of them are memorable. 

 

on the other hand, look at feb 2010 in cne/maine, sandy, nov 1950, dec 1992, march 1962...

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you are more likely to get widespread big winds from a low south of you than some squall line. we get monster southerly llj's most months of the cool season and hardly any of them are memorable. 

 

on the other hand, look at feb 2010 in cne/maine, sandy, nov 1950, dec 1992, march 1962...

 

Yeah - southerly flow really is not a good direction for damaging wind. You need to get some mixing. 

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Maybe I am not thinking it through, but I wonder if that would reduce some of the crazy solutions, but still have some range of possibilities. Anecdotally, the ARW has performed better IMO, than the NMM. 

 

The ARW keeps my hopes alive most of the time in the winter... like when most models have a storm tracking over the Benchmark, I can count on the ARW members to bring it right over BOS.  Always west and always amped.  That's the ARW motto.

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We'll take it!! Finally some excitement

BUFKIT PROFILES ARE NOT

STRONGLY INVERTED AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COULD ENHANCE THE
MIXING OF SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. COULD BE ENOUGH FOR
SOME DOWNED BRANCHES/SMALL TREES EXACERBATED BY LEAVES STILL
HANGING ON LATE. RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT 45 TO 55 MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE.

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We'll take it!! Finally some excitement

BUFKIT PROFILES ARE NOT

STRONGLY INVERTED AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL COULD ENHANCE THE

MIXING OF SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM TO THE SFC. COULD BE ENOUGH FOR

SOME DOWNED BRANCHES/SMALL TREES EXACERBATED BY LEAVES STILL

HANGING ON LATE. RIGHT NOW...LOOKING AT 45 TO 55 MPH GUSTS

POSSIBLE

 

How do you contain the excitement of the "could be" and "possible?"

 

Wind advisory in a southerly LLJ is fairly run of the mill for eastern SNE. Scott will probably have more trouble with LLWS at work than trees down in his neighborhood.

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How do you contain the excitement of the "could be" and "possible?"

 

Wind advisory in a southerly LLJ is fairly run of the mill for eastern SNE. Scott will probably have more trouble with LLWS at work than trees down in his neighborhood.

 

I literally just looked ahead on that. Could be good LLWS. Buckle up!

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The ARW keeps my hopes alive most of the time in the winter... like when most models have a storm tracking over the Benchmark, I can count on the ARW members to bring it right over BOS.  Always west and always amped.  That's the ARW motto.

 

Yeah it definitely has those 60hr sh*t show solutions. But at times itś done pretty well in the near term.

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How do you contain the excitement of the "could be" and "possible?"

 

Wind advisory in a southerly LLJ is fairly run of the mill for eastern SNE. Scott will probably have more trouble with LLWS at work than trees down in his neighborhood.

Just something to possibly look forward to. When I haven't had anything since Morch and facing a possible ratter winter..I need something.So this will have to do..And I'll probably be disappointed..and will just do it again next cutter

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You live in a boring place.

 

This is a rough time of year...you've waited all summer for winter to come, and now the leaves have fallen, so its time to hurry up and wait.  The landscape is brown again, its dark early, and everything points towards its time for snow and cold.  Except climo says otherwise.

 

Now we just need to get through the next month or so to get to at least the chances for accumulating snows.  Even just those 1-3" events are fun early season...the type of events that in March folks are saying its not even worth it.

 

Anyway, you know its boring when the weather highlight of my day is looking at freezing fog and rime ice on the ridgelines.

 

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This is a rough time of year...you've waited all summer for winter to come, and now the leaves have fallen, so its time to hurry up and wait. The landscape is brown again, its dark early, and everything points towards its time for snow and cold. Except climo says otherwise.

Now we just need to get through the next month or so to get to at least the chances for accumulating snows. Even just those 1-3" events are fun early season...the type of events that in March folks are saying its not even worth it.

Anyway, you know its boring when the weather highlight of my day is looking at freezing fog and rime ice on the ridgelines.

Our climo right now is like mid April. Even early to mid November isn't much better. Probably like early April in terms of snow but maybe a bit colder on temps just due to the shear hours of darkness we get vs April and sun angle. But the PJ isn't as far south which is why decent snow events are so hard to get prior to mid November.

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Our climo right now is like mid April. Even early to mid November isn't much better. Probably like early April in terms of snow but maybe a bit colder on temps just due to the shear hours of darkness we get vs April and sun angle. But the PJ isn't as far south which is why decent snow events are so hard to get prior to mid November.

look forward to my .4 climo av
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Like OceanStWx and others have opined...some nice gusts in higher elevations per ALY

 

 

 

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
  ADIRONDACKS...TACONICS...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND THE SOUTHERN
  GREEN MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARDS...SCATTERED DAMAGE FROM DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES
  RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
  TO 50 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...OR
WIND GUSTS FROM 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN
MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE
EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

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Like OceanStWx and others have opined...some nice gusts in higher elevations per ALY

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WIND

ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT

WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* LOCATIONS...THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE

ADIRONDACKS...TACONICS...NORTHERN BERKSHIRES AND THE SOUTHERN

GREEN MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARDS...SCATTERED DAMAGE FROM DOWNED TREES AND POWERLINES

RESULTING IN POWER OUTAGES.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP

TO 50 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 31 TO 39 MPH...OR

WIND GUSTS FROM 46 TO 57 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN

MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE

EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

Thanks!
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