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October, at the moment peering forward, a wild stormy affair?


Typhoon Tip

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Strong shear with that LLJ overhead. Need to get some instability and the models have trended a bit juicier. Mini supercells in the warm sector? 

 

if the llvl shear can get a little more turning it will definitely be worth watching.  Models have been trending back and forth with the degree of llvl turning which isn't really a shock.  

 

What I really like is the GFS' depiction of that MLJ streak which actually seems to arrive at a nearly perfect time...A 50-60kt 500mb jet streak is not too shabby...especially with some cape

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18z GFS has a monster ocean storm or tropical hybrid storm off the coast around the 22nd of OCT, its a combo of tropical cyclone meets a powerful upper level trough, 90 knot wind speeds with the eastern side of the system, and 40F temps on the backside of the Berkshire MTNs.  Plus this first front looks good for a quick wind event.  October and November like these sneaky wind events.

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