powderfreak Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 ORH has to rise ...OR, the lower els have to cool off.. That's too much vertical temperature change to be stable; it's going flip over - has to. The actually curiosity is ...why is ORH so cool to begin with - relative to hour. It's like there's something else ... maybe mechanically related to how the topography interacts with the atmosphere to induct the coolest plausible outcome... This is often what I think when looking at the SNE elevation temperatures. There's something else going on there. Like when its 91-93F at CEF/FIT/BDL but the Berkshire stations or ORH Hill spots at 1,000ft are 84F. Lapse rates often struggle to make sense. Its like some extreme low level lapse rate from 1,500ft on downward. Up here I can almost always make sense out of the lapse rates from the peaks down to the valleys. Maybe its the "relative" terrain and we have better mixing up through the high summits up here, but I can pretty much count on 5F/1,000ft with sun and mixed atmosphere from H85 on downward. And all the stations will usually line up nicely at the various elevations. That doesn't happen as "textbook" down in the SNE elevations vs. valleys for some reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Actually the ORH number makes sense with BDL and BED being 5F higher over about 850ft of elevation change. ORH vs. FIT is more interesting as that is 8F over 650ft of elevation change. FIT must be seeing compressional heating from a downslope flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 It's getting cloudy here at work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 I've been hearing that since early August. I will believe it when I see it. Incredible dry torch the last 30 days give or take. Next 180 days..... right through March Morch...... not a single day with less than +10F departure from normal. No snow below 4000' and south of 45N. That's it.... let's start the summer of 2016 board now. Or, lets get real and expect a return to around normal (give or take a couple of *F) with a step down to cooler than normal come early October possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Pretty sure its a basically normal pattern with minor deviations, most of the AN days are wet days with cloud cover holding up overnight lows. Nothing crazy either way. Yup. "Insane" is a bit of hyperbole. My avg yesterday was +10, which is always respectable during the warm months, but in Sept real "insane heat" begins when daily means exceed +15. I expect today's avg to be 12-13F AN, as we gain 8-10F on the min and lose 4-5F on the max - mostly cloudy today vs mostly sunny yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
South Shore Slop Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 96 here, hottest day of the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Actually the ORH number makes sense with BDL and BED being 5F higher over about 850ft of elevation change. ORH vs. FIT is more interesting as that is 8F over 650ft of elevation change. FIT must be seeing compressional heating from a downslope flow. There are some extremes of disparity out there, though. Case in point, my buddy lives at 890 feet on a ridge line in Northern ORH Co, about 5 miles as the crow flies from the FIT airport - home of the NWS thermometer. That site put up a 93 last hour; my buddy report 86 at the time. Other than that 5 miles, he about 550 feet higher in el than the airport. There are a lot of 90+ readings along the Rt 2 corridor, including BED and on down into Boston. It may be that this is all just prior to normalizing. Some places will stop rising, others join up late, ...then the wind picks up with that firey breeze thing like yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Actually the ORH number makes sense with BDL and BED being 5F higher over about 850ft of elevation change. ORH vs. FIT is more interesting as that is 8F over 650ft of elevation change. FIT must be seeing compressional heating from a downslope flow. ORH is really weird. I lived about a mile away and maybe a 100 feet lower. We (and the airport) might get 3" of snow while Tatnuck Square, a mile away and about 400' lower got a trace. Paxton, which is higher by a couple hundred feet often got 3 or 4 or 6 inches of snow when the city saw only flakes in the air. My house on the east side now is often 5*F+ (at 600 feet) than the airport. Not at all sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 unless of course they are not fropos Drought through Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 ORH is really weird. I lived about a mile away and maybe a 100 feet lower. We (and the airport) might get 3" of snow while Tatnuck Square, a mile away and about 400' lower got a trace. Paxton, which is higher by a couple hundred feet often got 3 or 4 or 6 inches of snow when the city saw only flakes in the air. My house on the east side now is often 5*F+ (at 600 feet) than the airport. Not at all sure why. I think you explained why by your elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 ORH has to rise ...OR, the lower els have to cool off.. That's too much vertical temperature change to be stable; it's going flip over - has to. The actually curiosity is ...why is ORH so cool to begin with - relative to hour. It's like there's something else ... maybe mechanically related to how the topography interacts with the atmosphere to induct the coolest plausible outcome... The question is moot for me anyway. ORH's temperature has about as much meaning for common civility as Logan's does, and neither make a whole deal of logical sense. You put a f "official" Boston temp out on an island in the Harbor? It's just flat plain dead panned wrong to do that, and anything other that is excusing it is an utter fallacy of logic and pure bullschit rationalization, PERIOD. end of discussion. Orh 89 at 1pm They will hit 90 impressive heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 BOS 94 at 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 84.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 89 at 1pm They will hit 90 impressive heat Yeah just saw that... They will not only make 90, they'll probably break that 91 record set in 2007, with 92 or even 93... I bet we get 97 outta this over at Hanscome and Lawerence... I bet BOS absolutely roasts in the evening strolls at the water fronts and the Common. Jerry's place is precisely the wrong location for people who don't like heat. ..that bastard... Not much by Dallas TX standard, no - but this is September 8 in New England. Looks like we are nomalizing alright, on the high end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 ORH has a NW wind right now...that is aiding them. They would probably be a couple degrees cooler if the wind was SW or WSW like modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 ORH has a NW wind right now...that is aiding them. They would probably be a couple degrees cooler if the wind was SW or WSW like modeled. Ha, I was just thinking about that/you - word! Also, ASH is WNW... and there are a few points around the area to suggest the average 'drift' is more on the N side of due west. I was also thinking back to "Hot Saturday" and that firey afternoon back in 2010 was it? Where/when it was 107 on Rt 9 at 55 mph! ..both those occasions seem to substantiate the old timer claim to look out when the wind blows from the NW! I would venture to wonder if this is also endemic to these Sonoran type EML air masses, where their so hot they carry a kind of transient, diurnally charged additional NVL that sort of forces that NW bend. Hmm.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Some massive CU just exploding overhead and to the west. Didn't expect to see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 I think TAN may have mentioned this ... But I was poking around and there are enough 94's over 67's out there to suggest heat criteria could be reached. Assuming 96/67, that puts the HI around 102... Right now it's around 97 or 98 using NWS' chart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Some massive CU just exploding overhead and to the west. Didn't expect to see that Good ob .. I was noticing on hi res vis loop that TCU are in streets through PA/NY and I was wondering if this whole region of the warm sector my just forcibly ignite ...shall we say, "independent" of the model and mind's intents and purposes - Don't know though. Haven't looked at much re that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Good ob .. I was noticing on hi res vis loop that TCU are in streets through PA/NY and I was wondering if this whole region of the warm sector my just forcibly ignite ...shall we say, "independent" of the model and mind's intents and purposes - Don't know though. Haven't looked at much re that. Storm blew up to my NW over about Ellington or Windsor maybe..nothing showed that today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Ha, I was just thinking about that/you - word! Also, ASH is WNW... and there are a few points around the area to suggest the average 'drift' is more on the N side of due west. I was also thinking back to "Hot Saturday" and that firey afternoon back in 2010 was it? Where/when it was 107 on Rt 9 at 55 mph! ..both those occasions seem to substantiate the old timer claim to look out when the wind blows from the NW! I would venture to wonder if this is also endemic to these Sonoran type EML air masses, where their so hot they carry a kind of transient, diurnally charged additional NVL that sort of forces that NW bend. Hmm.. That's possible. It is weird they are 10 knots on a wind direction that is like 50 degrees off what the forecast was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 It's getting cloudy here at work That Cu stuff evaporated we torch 92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 Storm blew up to my NW over about Ellington or Windsor maybe..nothing showed that today we had the same look an hour ago, this is from your high school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 sea breeze just kicked in 8 mph SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 I think you explained why by your elevation.You think that's all elevation?Jeff Gordon said he's at 600ft and regularly 5F+ from ORH. That's a helluva lapse rate. Although these big differences don't seem to be noticed as much in winter, so gotta imagine evapotranspiration plays a big part in why one spot will be 86F and then only 400ft lower its 93F. The regional temp maps look much more uniform in winter....like 31F valleys and 27-28F hills. You don't see like 36F at HippyValley while it's 28F at MPM unless CAA or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 They're still just 89 up there... this hour... They'll probably cap at 89.445 + or - whatever invisible cosmic dildo pump it takes to stop our discussion dead in its tracks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 93/67 imby about 9 mi ese of ORH at ~425 ft hottest day since 7/19/13 (95.1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 They're still just 89 up there... this hour... They'll probably cap at 89.445 + or - whatever invisible cosmic dildo pump it takes to stop our discussion dead in its tracks... They managed 90F in between obs...the 6 hour max is 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Looking around ...we've exceeded MAV MOS by 1 to 3 F on the hot side at most sites and counting. Not sure that count will get much higher though, because we got TCU tickling the glaciation layer... one output shower and it's over. Too fragile around here to recover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 They managed 90F in between obs...the 6 hour max is 90 Ha I like the paranoid thing better ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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