Modfan Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Hopefully it produces for some, brush fires starring to flare: Ginx a decent one in West Glocester RI last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Some of the mesos show that. It just has that look, September and even October can really squeeze out heavy rain with still high PWATS around, but now better forcing as we head into Fall and dynamics stronger. Some of the heaviest rain I have ever seen was in October.You thinking stemwinder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 We'd better hope we lose this disaster setup we have now by this winter Ed Vallee @EdValleeWx 8h 8 hours ago Quick long range update: EPS Weeklies continue to show Aluetian Low through beginning of October. Looks pretty warm in eastern US overall. This is a surprise... Said no one with a vestige of a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 My lawn guy must read this board because he just put down my Fall application. Can't wait for this rain. lol. And it should all roll nicely off of the hard earth and into the stormdrains for the first few minutes or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 A bit early I know, but how bad do things look for Foxboro tomorrow night? We get hardly any rain for months, and then it decides that it wants to open up on us when I will be at a freaking game with my son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 9, 2015 Author Share Posted September 9, 2015 A bit early I know, but how bad do things look for Foxboro tomorrow night? We get hardly any rain for months, and then it decides that it wants to open up on us when I will be at a freaking game with my son. Borrow MPMs shawl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 A bit early I know, but how bad do things look for Foxboro tomorrow night? We get hardly any rain for months, and then it decides that it wants to open up on us when I will be at a freaking game with my son. Warm and muggy with dews near or over 70. Prob some showers on an off but not all game rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 9, 2015 Author Share Posted September 9, 2015 A bit early I know, but how bad do things look for Foxboro tomorrow night? We get hardly any rain for months, and then it decides that it wants to open up on us when I will be at a freaking game with my son. Garth, this is what the models show for game time, prepare for rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Yeah...I suppose there's some weak homage there, but the elephant pattern in the room is still a warm one. That whole bag of inclemency flips right back out. I was impressed to see the 00z and 06z GFS solutions bear positive anomalies in the east right out to 380 hours.. Also, the Euro may be overdone next week with it's intended scale of the eastern ridge, but both it and the GFS quickly rotate the OV trough up into the Maritimes, replacing those same regions of the OV/MA right back into a similar positive height anomaly as that which we've just transpired. The Euro actually brings another quasi-Sonoran plume with it, too.. It's getting late in the solar year, so it will be an interesting challenge... But, I recall in 1998, a December high temperature of 75 to 80 F with mid afternoon dew forming on the edges of windshields, and shady roads that stayed wet due to absurdly high DPs. I think based on that and other autumnal warm extremes in lore, it's not too late to put up a 90 prior to the Equinox - and that's probably a duh. But again, the Euro's likely a bit too amped with the ridge, as it typically is with most features in that time range. The GFS is probably too progressive and flat, just the same. Somewhere in between is a solid argument not to hold one's breath for seasonal change. 'Wonder where all those deep troughs with the chilly 850 plumes into Manitoba went - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 The pattern is very non-nino IMO going forward. If you believe the EC ensemble, higher height anomalies over the Aleutians, low anomalies in NW Canada and ridging over the northeast and adjacent Canada. For all that thought El Nino was going to halt the rotation of the Earth and govern all weather...kind of funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 The pattern is very non-nino IMO going forward. If you believe the EC ensemble, higher height anomalies over the Aleutians, low anomalies in NW Canada and ridging over the northeast and adjacent Canada. For all that thought El Nino was going to halt the rotation of the Earth and govern all weather...kind of funny. Ha ha! word - I think I read some posts (have no idea by whom -) that espoused early winters in warm ENSOs? I think I've read that over the years, anyway, not just here... But, maybe things break toward October + One observation that's been bouncing around in mind lately is a little concerning. I have noted over recent months at times, that the tendency for the NE Pac/Alaskan sector ridge was a kind of base-line pattern. I think it may be too soon to close the book on that as "an era now gone". I just don't recall at any time last summer into autumn, having this kind of make-up, which is really not like that... heh The overall in situ, and that which you just described of the Euro ens ... neither bares any resemblance of said base-line pattern, and that's a little concerning. No one panic! just that confidence in season outlook is less than the usual pos anyway - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 I hope we can pull 0.5"-1" of rain out of this, need the rain and is not a wet pattern looking ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 I would be surprised if October doesn't show a lot more ENSO influence than what is going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Ha ha! word - I think I read some posts (have no idea by whom -) that espoused early winters in warm ENSOs? I think I've read that over the years, anyway, not just here... But, maybe things break toward October + One observation that's been bouncing around in mind lately is a little concerning. I have noted over recent months at times, that the tendency for the NE Pac/Alaskan sector ridge was a kind of base-line pattern. I think it may be too soon to close the book on that as "an era now gone". I just don't recall at any time last summer into autumn, having this kind of make-up, which is really not like that... heh The overall in situ, and that which you just described of the Euro ens ... neither bares any resemblance of said base-line pattern, and that's a little concerning. No one panic! just that confidence in season outlook is less than the usual pos anyway - Admittedly anecdotal....but I'd rather September be mild if speculating on ramifications for the ensuing winter.... Again, no data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 I would be surprised if October doesn't show a lot more ENSO influence than what is going on right now. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 I would be surprised if October doesn't show a lot more ENSO influence than what is going on right now. I was just reminiscing about 43 F CAA pixel showers with a couple of small grapple pellets bouncing, just before the sun comes back out and sets up the next one... And thinking, could that be any far more different than this day? Wow. It's sear hot out there. Yeah, there's a breeze. That ventilation helps. But the haze has reduce quite a bit and the clearer nature to the sky is like being inside a microwave oven out there with that sun's lasers cutting through 90 F air. Temps will probably cap shy of yesterday, albeit more uniform due to said mixing. A buddy also said the DPs are nearing 70 down near NYC... and am noticing some CB with anvil blowing NW ... S of Long Island... May be the early signals for theta e invasion. Something has to come in if the NAMs thundery 12 hour rains are to commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Yeah...I suppose there's some weak homage there, but the elephant pattern in the room is still a warm one. That whole bag of inclemency flips right back out. I was impressed to see the 00z and 06z GFS solutions bear positive anomalies in the east right out to 380 hours.. Also, the Euro may be overdone next week with it's intended scale of the eastern ridge, but both it and the GFS quickly rotate the OV trough up into the Maritimes, replacing those same regions of the OV/MA right back into a similar positive height anomaly as that which we've just transpired. The Euro actually brings another quasi-Sonoran plume with it, too.. It's getting late in the solar year, so it will be an interesting challenge... But, I recall in 1998, a December high temperature of 75 to 80 F with mid afternoon dew forming on the edges of windshields, and shady roads that stayed wet due to absurdly high DPs. I think based on that and other autumnal warm extremes in lore, it's not too late to put up a 90 prior to the Equinox - and that's probably a duh. But again, the Euro's likely a bit too amped with the ridge, as it typically is with most features in that time range. The GFS is probably too progressive and flat, just the same. Somewhere in between is a solid argument not to hold one's breath for seasonal change. 'Wonder where all those deep troughs with the chilly 850 plumes into Manitoba went - Theres been some talk on here of no more warmth/heat. Seems to me another hot/ humid spell is on the table next Tues-fri ... With a 90 or 2 interspersed at typical hot spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 I hate that damn heat and humidity. Has anyone else noted how this warm season has mimicked our last cold season? Very meek first half, followed by guns blazing throughout the 2nd half, and then some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Admittedly anecdotal....but I'd rather September be mild if speculating on ramifications for the ensuing winter.... Again, no data. I haven't been able to find much a of correlation for September temps and the variety of winters during El Ninos. Maybe a slight nod in favor of torching before a good winter? We torched last September...we were near average in 2009 and 2006...we torched in 2004 and 2002....near average in 1997...cooler than average in 1994, 1991, 1987, and 1986...near average in 1982...cooler in 1977, 1976....torched in 1968, 1969...near average in 1965...a freezer in 1963...and torched in 1957. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 I haven't been able to find much a of correlation for September temps and the variety of winters during El Ninos. Maybe a slight nod in favor of torching before a good winter? We torched last September...we were near average in 2009 and 2006...we torched in 2004 and 2002....near average in 1997...cooler than average in 1994, 1991, 1987, and 1986...near average in 1982...cooler in 1977, 1976....torched in 1968, 1969...near average in 1965...a freezer in 1963...and torched in 1957. A say a slight torch nod....yes. Not overwhelmingly so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Nino looks more in the cards in October on the weeklies. But this Nino sort of hasn't behaved in a way many thought it would this summer...see CONUS torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 I hate that damn heat and humidity. Has anyone else noted how this warm season has mimicked our last cold season? Very meek first half, followed by guns blazing throughout the 2nd half, and then some... Absolutely ... back-ended seasons. Was discussing this on the phone with someone just the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Absolutely ... back-ended seasons. Was discussing this on the phone with someone just the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 9, 2015 Author Share Posted September 9, 2015 vintage-guy-on-phone.jpgHarv, hello Harv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 "Listen to me Harv, I'm telling you Harv...Cohen stole my research!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 annnyway... On a side note, that's kind of an ominous albeit transient set up, having that quasi-closed low plumb to the Apps and then lift N over 24 hours through western NE... Could almost envision some seriously seasonally corrective rains taking place there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Never ends @ericfisher: After cooler air Friday-Sunday, signal is there for another ridge to build back into the Northeast (more heat) http://t.co/9xzo4qxzeN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Never ends @ericfisher: After cooler air Friday-Sunday, signal is there for another ridge to build back into the Northeast (more heat) http://t.co/9xzo4qxzeN May not even hit 32F this winter. Neverending growing season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 May not even hit 32F this winter. Neverending growing season?oh it will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 May not even hit 32F this winter. Neverending growing season? He will start trying to produce widespread snow events and highs in the 30s by Columbus Day...probably about 2 months ahead of climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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