ORH_wxman Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 9 of the next 15 days in SNE on the GEFS are normal or below with 6 above normal with 4 of those from day 10 to 15, The term massive seems just a tad bit hyperbolic at this time. Like Scooter pointed out yesterday its a mix and nothing earth shattering either way. Looks wet too I'm not seeing much heat either in the medium term prior to D9-10 either...in fact, it might be kind of raw a couple of these days with E and NE flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 I'm not seeing much heat either in the medium term prior to D9-10 either...in fact, it might be kind of raw a couple of these days with E and NE flow. Its best to keep things in the 7 day reign as seasons change, runs are flipping day to day but you can see how the seasons are flipping gradually. Take Euro day ten, thats a flip from last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Light shower just hit and it feels oppressively humid all the sudden. Just like 3 minutes of big splatting drops and now the air is so thick you could cut it with a knife. Local PWS is 79/73 right now, while MVL ASOS is 83/69. Classic PWS vs. ASOS, with the ASOS having a higher temperature, but a lower dew point. Those huge runway tarmacs at MVL must be making the difference, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 I'm not seeing much heat either in the medium term prior to D9-10 either...in fact, it might be kind of raw a couple of these days with E and NE flow. I'll go with the Ensemble approach over op runs. This is a very warm pattern thru months end and certainly not going cool or even normal anytime soon. Water temps are 70 in the Gulf of Maine..that's not going to help the cool forecasts i will also say we are not done with 90 at BDL/IJD/TAN areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tstorm723 Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Temperature on my Davis here in Leicester MA hit 91 today. First 90+ day since July 18, 2013! Wonder how many times the only 90 degree day for an entire year has happened in September? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 To be sure no 90+ thru day 5-6..but after that..I'd say it's entirely possible ..at least widespread 80's which by then is still like 10-15 AN http://mp1.met.psu.e..._12z/tloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 9 of the next 15 days in SNE on the GEFS are normal or below with 6 above normal with 4 of those from day 10 to 15, The term massive seems just a tad bit hyperbolic at this time. Like Scooter pointed out yesterday its a mix and nothing earth shattering either way. Looks wet too Are the GEFS wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 I'm not seeing much heat either in the medium term prior to D9-10 either...in fact, it might be kind of raw a couple of these days with E and NE flow. I agree. The pretty warm colors at 18,000ft aren't really telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 I agree. The pretty warm colors at 18,000ft aren't really telling. Just want to make sure I'm with you..So you are thinking cooler than normal days 2-7 averaged out? With some chilly, onshore flow? Or are you just thinking less heat but still a warmer than normal pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Just want to make sure I'm with you..So you are thinking cooler than normal days 2-7 averaged out? With some chilly, onshore flow? Or are you just thinking less heat but still a warmer than normal pattern? I am talking about a heat signal. It could be that daytime temps avg cooler, esp east and night mins are higher. It depends on how the trough sets up and whether we have a few days of onshore flow, or do we retorch early next week like euro op. I also was looking at later in the week too. We may sneak in another torch early to mid next week if EC is right. Either way..seems AN to me overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Are the GEFS wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 So nothing is showing a wet pattern next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 I am talking about a heat signal. It could be that daytime temps avg cooler, esp east and night mins are higher. It depends on how the trough sets up and whether we have a few days of onshore flow, or do we retorch early next week like euro op. I also was looking at later in the week too. We may sneak in another torch early to mid next week if EC is right. Either way..seems AN to me overall. Ok..so we are pretty much on the same page. there's no big cooling or cold front with autumn air. The front that comes thru certainly knocks back the heat..but everyday likely comes in AN. BOX seeing it next week too NEXT WEEK... ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SIGNALLING A RETURN TO A RIDGING PATTERN. COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER PRONOUNED HOT-HUMID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S/E OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A PREVAILING SW-FLOW ALOFT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME TILL THE WEEKEND DETAILS BECOME MORE IRONED OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Ok..so we are pretty much on the same page. there's no big cooling or cold front with autumn air. The front that comes thru certainly knocks back the heat..but everyday likely comes in AN. BOX seeing it next week too NEXT WEEK... ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SIGNALLING A RETURN TO A RIDGING PATTERN. COULD BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER PRONOUNED HOT-HUMID PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS S/E OF THE REGION RESULTING IN A PREVAILING SW-FLOW ALOFT. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME TILL THE WEEKEND DETAILS BECOME MORE IRONED OUT. Well depending on low track this weekend, it's possible we could get raw cool, but moist NE flow. Overall, I don't see a prolonged push of cool dry air at the moment. That doesn't mean some daytime highs could be cool if the high builds in right. These aren't easy questions to answer from a deterministic standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Well depending on low track this weekend, it's possible we could get raw cool, but moist NE flow. Overall, I don't see a prolonged push of cool dry air at the moment. That doesn't mean some daytime highs could be cool if the high builds in right. These aren't easy questions to answer from a deterministic standpoint. So here's another question. With those torched water temps offshore of BOS up to GOM..say there was NE flow..wouldn't that promote humid weather like dews in the mid-upper 60's,,,but if cloudy maybe like low -mid 70's for highs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 So here's another question. With those torched water temps offshore of BOS up to GOM..say there was NE flow..wouldn't that promote humid weather like dews in the mid-upper 60's,,,but if cloudy maybe like low -mid 70's for highs? No. The Gulf of Maine temps are in the upper 50s to low 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 No. The Gulf of Maine temps are in the upper 50s to low 60s. There's a buoy off of POR that was 70 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 No. The Gulf of Maine temps are in the upper 50s to low 60s. But there's one buoy off Boston Harbor that's reporting 71 SST today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 There's a buoy off of POR that was 70 today Off PWM is 66, Wells Beach is the one reporting 70. But the vast majority of the GoM is mid 60s or lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 But there's one buoy off Boston Harbor that's reporting 71 SST today... What people really fail to realize is how easy upwelling drops surface temps in the North Atlantic. Look at this from the Portsmouth bouy. 1 day of NE winds last week dropped it almost ten degrees. That water is predominately cold year round. a little NE wind and boom it mixes out, then the surface warms as winds slacken but yea NE winds off the GOM is not a warm flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Those bouys run a couple warm during that day I've noticed. Seem sun influenced which can happen. And Kevin, depends on the push of air. You can have drier air moving into the GOM and actually get evaporative cooling. Those temps won't cause dews near 70. But if the front doesn't get far offshore and you are left with stagnant onshore flow, obviously dews are higher since you lack a push of cooler air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 nice drink on the Euro and this is just a part of the total Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Nino not in Nino over next two weeks. Certainly other things overriding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 What people really fail to realize is how easy upwelling drops surface temps in the North Atlantic. Look at this from the Portsmouth bouy. 1 day of NE winds last week dropped it almost ten degrees. That water is predominately cold year round. a little NE wind and boom it mixes out, then the surface warms as winds slacken but yea NE winds off the GOM is not a warm flow. Fascinating to see those buoy graphs and how quickly the surface water temperatures can change once they get mixed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 Nino not in Nino over next two weeks. Certainly other things overriding it. kind of totally against the WSI Nino index stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 8, 2015 Author Share Posted September 8, 2015 Fascinating to see those buoy graphs and how quickly the surface water temperatures can change once they get mixed up. Years of living on the beach I know how fast the water can go from being so warm to the next day wtf. Just swim off shore a 100 yards and dive down 15 feet. the laws of mixing and thermodynamics work in the ocean as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 8, 2015 Share Posted September 8, 2015 Labrador current... like you learned about when you were 10 years old. no more discussion necessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 You think that's all elevation? Jeff Gordon said he's at 600ft and regularly 5F+ from ORH. That's a helluva lapse rate. Although these big differences don't seem to be noticed as much in winter, so gotta imagine evapotranspiration plays a big part in why one spot will be 86F and then only 400ft lower its 93F. The regional temp maps look much more uniform in winter....like 31F valleys and 27-28F hills. You don't see like 36F at HippyValley while it's 28F at MPM unless CAA or something. You think that's all elevation? Jeff Gordon said he's at 600ft and regularly 5F+ from ORH. That's a helluva lapse rate. Although these big differences don't seem to be noticed as much in winter, so gotta imagine evapotranspiration plays a big part in why one spot will be 86F and then only 400ft lower its 93F. The regional temp maps look much more uniform in winter....like 31F valleys and 27-28F hills. You don't see like 36F at HippyValley while it's 28F at MPM unless CAA or something. I don't entirely trust my readings here on the east side. My max today was supposedly 97F (36C) but I think it is off by a few (maybe 4?) I'll have to check some of the other local stations on this side of town. We do seem to be consistently higher over here than on the West side. My thermometer is just off my (white painted) front porch. Usually its not insanely higher than the airport, but there is a window from now until December when I get weirdly higher temps... so it must have to do with heat radiating off the house or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 9, 2015 Share Posted September 9, 2015 Blue hill got to 96 which was surprising to me since they run 2-3 cooler than Logan. Not sure what's going on there, but 600' at ORH is probably good for 94-95 I think today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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