doncat Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 ^Had 7.0" here from that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 ^Had 7.0" here from that event. 9 here. Was like a mid winter storm that evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 ^Had 7.0" here from that event. Had 12" in my hometown, though I wasn't there for the event. Incredible double-whammy from Sandy and then a historic snowstorm one week later. That's what anomalous blocking can do for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 7, 2015 Share Posted November 7, 2015 Had 12" in my hometown, though I wasn't there for the event. Incredible double-whammy from Sandy and then a historic snowstorm one week later. That's what anomalous blocking can do for you. strong blocking helped Sandy and son of Sandy give us a historical two week period...The blocking returned in February and March 2013 but hasn't been that strong since... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 The wind is whipping off the leaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 Monitoring tropical development in N Carribean. Potential indirect impact early this wk from tropical moisture: https://t.co/0Zl0befirh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 8, 2015 Share Posted November 8, 2015 ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 700 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated overnight in association with a low pressure area located about 100 miles southeast of the Turks and Caicos. Surface observations indicate that gale-force winds have been occurring in brief squalls mainly to the east of the center. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward over the Bahamas and then turns northwestward. Locally heavy rains and strong gusty winds are possible over Hispaniola today, and over the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas during the next day or so. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent Forecaster Cangialosi/Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Caught a couple nice Taurid meteors (quasi-fireballs?) last night around 2 am. I wasn't awake for them sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 9, 2015 Author Share Posted November 9, 2015 Caught a couple nice Taurid meteors (quasi-fireballs?) last night around 2 am. I wasn't awake for them sadly. I saw one last night here. It must have been pretty bright to see it in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 this enso event doesn't match 97 big winter coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 this enso event doesn't match 97 big winter coming Its about time you caught on to this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 this enso event doesn't match 97 big winter coming You are funny! Loved your snark on Twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 this enso event doesn't match 97 big winter coming OK JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 If the westward Nino progression continues, then it's very likely we see a very active (potentially snowy) 2nd half. We could also see a few whopper systems thanks to the raging STJ. Really fascinating to see what will happen as we've never experienced an event like this with a strong +PDO and record breaking western Nino waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 this enso event doesn't match 97 big winter coming are you feeling okay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Its about time you caught on to this! There are more ways than one to reach a 97-98 setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 NEG EPO WEST based forcing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 NEG EPO WEST based forcing Counter-acted by an insane +AO and +NAO, the former being uncertain tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Counter-acted by an insane +AO and +NAO, the former being uncertain tho. You mean like this ? HEADLINE: The historical data suggests that big high-latitude blocking in the summer (as we had in July) is positively correlated to blocking in the following winter. The results from this data analysis suggest that colder risks may be in play relative to the usual warm-leaning winter forecasts that occur during the stronger El Nino events. http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter A pos NAO makes you warm this year ? There is no way you are this stupid ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 You mean like this ? HEADLINE: The historical data suggests that big high-latitude blocking in the summer (as we had in July) is positively correlated to blocking in the following winter. The results from this data analysis suggest that colder risks may be in play relative to the usual warm-leaning winter forecasts that occur during the stronger El Nino events. http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter A pos NAO makes you warm ? There is no way you are this stupid ? Don't understand the bolded portion, you are questioning Met 101. Thus far we are not headed in the right direction if you want a -NAO. Here is the average +NAO/-NAO composite. Even if you get cold during a +NAO thru other means, your storm track will be screwed up, especially true in the Mid-Atlantic. The only way to overcome is to have a repeat of 14-15, a record breaking -EPO loading pattern. I'm not interested in a WSI payed shill article from 4 months ago. You can see the writing on the wall for a warm December and uncertain outcomes later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Don't understand the bolded portion, you are questioning Met 101. Thus far we are not headed in the right direction if you want a -NAO. Here is the average +NAO composite. Even if you get cold during a +NAO thru other means, your storm track will be screwed up, especially true in the Mid-Atlantic. This year . Not with a strong ENSO event a trough in the means in the SE . Where is the ridge in the SE coming from this year ? You guys think too linear . You all suffer from MET 101 STUPIDITY . Look at the $%^&* mean trough in the SE . So your 2m will be a result of the 500 in the PAC EPO /PNA regime and NOT THE NORTH ATLANTIC The NAO will determine how wet you get , that`s it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 This year . Not with a strong ENSO event a trough in the means in the SE . Where is the ridge in the SE coming from this year ? You guys think too linear . You all suffer from MET 101 STUPIDITY . Look at the $%^&* mean trough in the SE . So your 2m will be a result of the 500 in the PAC EPO /PNA regime and NOT THE NORTH ATLANTIC The NAO will determine how wet you get , that`s it . The mean trough position is certainly not in the SE and November is a prime pre-conditioning month for winter setups. The only way to overcome is to have a repeat of 14-15, a record breaking -EPO loading pattern. I'm not interested in a WSI payed shill article from 4 months ago. You can see the writing on the wall for a warm December and uncertain outcomes later on. UNLIKELY, go realistic or fail hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 The mean trough is certainly not in the SE. The only way to overcome is to have a repeat of 14-15, a record breaking -EPO loading pattern. I'm not interested in a WSI payed shill article from 4 months ago. You can see the writing on the wall for a warm December and uncertain outcomes later on. UNLIKELY, go realistic or fail hard. The winter trough in the means is in the SE. The Euro - which can`t be posted . And then oh just the rest of the %^&*( guidance . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Stop removing words from my posts. I'm out, you can have your echo chamber of BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Was the AO and NAO positive in the summer of '14? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Stop removing words from my posts. I'm out, you can have your echo chamber of BS. I did not remove anything , I am not sure what you are referring too . You said there`s no trough in the means in the SE I showed you the guidance . You posted Dec would be warm as if a warm Dec must mean a warm winter must ensue . This has been addressed in the guidance as the pattern retrogrades at 500 . It is not a shock to anyone`s thinking . PB GFI, on 18 Sept 2015 - 8:06 PM, said: 1 I believe the forcing will shift west. 2 I believe the EPO will produce a NEG S of the Aleutians. 3 I believe that will pull the higher heights west of Hudson Bay 4 I believe there will be a trough in the SE and the EC will see AN precip. 5 I believe Dec is AN while Jan and Feb is your winter. I don't know how much more specific I can be , I am never afraid to make a forecast , I did this back in April with the Nino and it turned out very good , so I am willing to go all in and tell you what I think with the guidance and drivers on my side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 dateline forcing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 Was the AO and NAO positive in the summer of '14? They were negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 9, 2015 Share Posted November 9, 2015 They were negative. So it didn't correlate last year at all then. We raged positive for both AO and NAO all winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.