AvantHiatus Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Tier 3 weather porn. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015082312&fh=192&xpos=0&ypos=78.18181648727294 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Looks like a tropical system off the African coast... unless I am missing something else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 Looks like a tropical system off the African coast... unless I am missing something else One ensemble member brings 98L into Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 23, 2015 Share Posted August 23, 2015 It looks like the center is now well removed from the latest two microbursts of deep convection... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 24, 2015 Author Share Posted August 24, 2015 The lights are starting to dim for Danny. Might be time for one of the mets to deliver last rites. I'm not ready to throw in the towel yet. Shear is decreasing and water temps are increasing. I'll admit though that Danny has a very small chance of impacting the US as much more than a remnant low. At least we still have 98L right on Danny's heels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 even though it was inevitable I think this sums up how we feel about Danny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 so are we going to just change the thread title and talk about the next "threat" when it forms this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 RIP Danny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Danny never really had a chance to impact land. We'll have to see how shear impacts future systems. The wave behind Danny will probably be a named storm inside of 72 hours. It's a long ways out but the pattern being advertised in a week to 10 days isn't a recurve pattern at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Danny never really had a chance to impact land. We'll have to see how shear impacts future systems. The wave behind Danny will probably be a named storm inside of 72 hours. It's a long ways out but the pattern being advertised in a week to 10 days isn't a recurve pattern at all. You sure? Last week Twitter posts had this thing hitting every major city in the US. Even Minneapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Time of death-11am Danny was a fighter. In the hostile world that ultimately consumed it, Danny beat the odds and thrived. That was not to last however. Danny shocked many, and gave life to those of us dying of exceptional boredom. RIP +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 +1+2 RIP, Danny. It was a good run my old friend. Back to extreme boredom. Hey.. did I hear we might get a shower tonight? I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 We're recycling the Danny thread for 98L? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 We're recycling the Danny thread for 98L? Yeah that is a bit odd. If we're doing this we might as well make the title "General Tropics Mid-Atl Thread" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Yeah that is a bit odd. If we're doing this we might as well make the title "General Tropics Mid-Atl Thread"Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Yeah that is a bit odd. If we're doing this we might as well make the title "General Tropics Mid-Atl Thread" Are you new here? We have plenty of threads that get recycled into new ones when a new threat arises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Likely fish with a small chance of U.S. impact? That thing really gets going out in the Atlantic though... 950mb. I will say that while most members are OTS, there are more of them this last run that take a swipe at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Likely fish with a small chance of U.S. impact? That thing really gets going out in the Atlantic though... 950mb. I will say that while most members are OTS, there are more of them this last run that take a swipe at the coast. It'll change a bunch, i'm sure we will get a few runs with it in the Gulf too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Are you new here? We have plenty of threads that get recycled into new ones when a new threat arises. That seems odd. Someone loads up a thread entitled Erin and finds posts about Ana. Not exactly conducive to outsiders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Looks like we will get a Depression/Tropical Storm out of this on the 5:00pm Update? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Are you new here? We have plenty of threads that get recycled into new ones when a new threat arises. Hopefully you knew what i meant - recycling I'm fine with but the naming is very odd. Usually if we do a general thread/recycling we chance the subtitle but the main thread title will be something like "General Tropics Thread" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 That seems odd. Someone loads up a thread entitled Erin and finds posts about Ana. Not exactly conducive to outsiders. That would be an awesome season. If it were the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 24, 2015 Share Posted August 24, 2015 Hopefully you knew what i meant - recycling I'm fine with but the naming is very odd. Usually if we do a general thread/recycling we chance the subtitle but the main thread title will be something like "General Tropics Thread" So make the damn thread then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 So make the damn thread then ?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 ?! On mobile, didn't see other thread was bumped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Erika has arrived. 000WTNT45 KNHC 250246TCDAT5TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0520151100 PM AST MON AUG 24 2015Satellite imagery, buoy observations, and a very recent ASCAT passsuggest that the circulation associated with the area of lowpressure over the tropical Atlantic has become better defined.Deep convection also became better organized during the afternoonand has persisted in a band over the southeastern portion of thecirculation this evening. The NOAA buoy reported peak south-southwesterly winds of 39 kt, and a minimum pressure of 1004 mb.Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on a 40-kttropical storm. Erika becomes the 5th tropical storm of the 2015Atlantic hurricane season.During the next couple of days, Erika will be moving through anenvironment characterized by warm water, a moist air mass, andgenerally low vertical wind shear. These factors should allowstrengthening. After 48 hours, Erika will be approaching anupper-level low/trough that is forecast to be near Hispaniola, whichis expected to cause an increase in westerly wind shear. The NHCintensity forecast calls for steady intensification during thenext 48 hours, and is close to the SHIPS model and intensityconsensus. After that time, the intensity guidance diverges withthe statistical guidance and the HWRF bringing Erika to hurricanestrength. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and GFS weaken the system in about3 days, due to the increasing shear. The NHC intensity forecast isbetween these scenarios and shows no change in strength after 48hours. Due to the large spread in the intensity guidance, theintensity forecast at days 3-5 is of low confidence.Erika is moving quickly westward across the tropical Atlantic or275/17 kt. The tropical cyclone is forecast to move westward towest-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge over thecentral Atlantic during the next few days. The forward speed ofErika should gradually decrease as the cyclone nears the westernportion of the ridge. The track guidance is tightly clusteredthrough 72 hours, with more spread after that time. Thebifurcation appears to be the result of the future strength ofErika. The models that have a deeper depiction of the cyclone showmore of a northwestward turn late in the period, while the modelsthat weaken Erika indicate a more westward motion. The NHC forecastis close to the ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean, which is south of theconsensus but not as far south as the GFS.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 25/0300Z 14.4N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 14.9N 50.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 15.8N 53.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 26/1200Z 16.5N 56.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/0000Z 17.1N 59.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/0000Z 18.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 29/0000Z 20.5N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH120H 30/0000Z 22.0N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH$$Forecaster Brown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted August 25, 2015 Share Posted August 25, 2015 Euro has a monster off the SE coast. Sub 945mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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