Windman18 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Things looking good in terms of this thing turning into a hurricane. Here's the current track and wind speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Eh, I wouldn't count on it becoming anything more than a Tropical Storm. Long Range GFS is starting to have more action coming off of Cape Verde FWIW (ala 6z GFS hr 384) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Fishy fishy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Fishy fishy. Very likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 17, 2015 Author Share Posted August 17, 2015 I'm not saying this storm is going to impact the US, but it is a possibility. We'll just have to wait and see I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 1938 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 According to the Canadian, the main show is not 96L. Full run: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gem®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2015081712&fh=210&xpos=0&ypos=169.0909054259624 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 What is this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 What is this an attempt to take something that smells fishy and make it exciting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 an attempt to take something that smells fishy and make it exciting?Anything would be exciting after this stretch of boring weather. I got excited about a cloud a few minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 Waves and waves of tropical storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 17, 2015 Author Share Posted August 17, 2015 Afternoon euro had 986mb low just southwest of the Dominican Republic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 This thread should not exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 17, 2015 Share Posted August 17, 2015 I'd be lying if I said I wasn't interested in a cane that won't even have much of a chance at impacting my yard. Ops look like favorable conditions for a couple waves exiting the African coast over the next week or 2. Our weather has been nice from a sensible standpoint but so god awful boring to discuss. I took a picture of my car thermo today when it hit 100. It was exciting in the lamest way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 I'm not saying this storm is going to impact the US, but it is a possibility. We'll just have to wait and see I guess. Cat 5 up the Chesapeake or bust. The morning visible imagery looks better than yesterday, some more organized outflow is evident on the eastern side of the system. NHC has 96L at 90%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Cat 5 up the Chesapeake or bust. The morning visible imagery looks better than yesterday, some more organized outflow is evident on the eastern side of the system. NHC has 96L at 90%. If it keeps looking like this during the afternoon it'll probably be a depression. Some of the models get it pretty far west. Still would be a good bet to bet on a fish tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Some new guidance for 96L: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 lot of dry air for it to deal with... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 lot of dry air for it to deal with... Seems to be doing a pretty good job considering all of that dry air so far. Probably will struggle once it's more into that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 NHC will begin issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Depression Four, located over the east-central tropical Atlantic Ocean, at 11 a.m. EDT/AST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 For archival purposes: Tropical Depression FOUR Forecast Discussion Home Public Adv Fcst Adv Discussion Wind Probs Graphics Archive 000WTNT44 KNHC 181448TCDAT4TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 1NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL0420151100 AM AST TUE AUG 18 2015The low pressure system that has been moving westward across theeastern tropical Atlantic the past few days has finally acquiredenough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropicalcyclone. A 1232 UTC ASCAT-B overpass indicated the system has awell-defined circulation, and there was also a large field of 30-ktand greater wind vectors in the eastern semicircle. Dvorak satelliteintensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, sothe initial intensity is set at 30 kt for this advisory. Upper-leveloutflow is good to the south and fair to the north.The initial motion estimate is 280/11 kt. The global and regionalmodels are in good agreement on the tropical cyclone movingwest-northwestward along the southern periphery of a deep-layersubtropical ridge for the next 48-72 hours, accompanied by adecrease in forward speed as the system approaches a weakness inthis ridge. After that time, the ridge is expected to build back inas a trough to the north lifts out, forcing the cyclone to turn morewestward and accelerate through the remainder of the forecastperiod. The official forecast track lies close to but a littlefaster than the multi-model consensus TVCN due to the much slowerGFS model creating a slow bias in the consensus.The overall atmospheric and oceanic environments surrounding thecyclone appear conducive for slow but steady strengtheningthroughout the forecast period. The only inhibiting factor will beoccasional brief intrusions of dry mid-level air associated with theSaharan Air Layer that lies just to the north of the depression.However, given the very low vertical wind shear of less than 5 kt,the convective structure is expected to steadily increase inorganization, allowing the dry air intrusions to be mixed out. Theofficial intensity forecast closely follows the intensity consensusmodel IVCN through 72 hours, and then leans closer to a blend of theDecay-SHIPS and LGEM models at 96 and 120 hours.FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDSINIT 18/1500Z 10.6N 36.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 11.0N 37.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 11.3N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 11.6N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 12.1N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 13.2N 44.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 13.7N 47.8W 80 KT 90 MPH120H 23/1200Z 14.0N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH$$Forecaster Stewart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 18, 2015 Author Share Posted August 18, 2015 Current track. This storm will become a whole lot more interesting if it can make it past the Caribbean islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Current track. This storm will become a whole lot more interesting if it can make it past the Caribbean islands.144842W5_NL_sm.gif Odds on it getting shredded before/while crossing Haiti and then making the trek out to sea? 5:2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 SNE hoping for a 1938 repeat. thank god we aren't that, other than Andy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 I mean, I'm in for a cane, but I'm not about a cat 3 direct hit lol. like that will ever happen. last couple to get anywhere near us were weak cat 1s. they just don't stay strong for whatever reason. mainly track and climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Title change pls. This is worthy of our respect since it survived the central Atlantic during a strong el nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 We always debate "rooting for destruction". What I root for has no bearing on the outcome. If it did, the Redskins wouldn't be the laughing stock of the NFL. I'll gladly "root" for any exciting weather. Regardless of the outcome. I won't deny it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted August 18, 2015 Author Share Posted August 18, 2015 Anybody know how I can change the title of this thread or is that not possible? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Anybody know how I can change the title of this thread or is that not possible? Thanks You have to edit the first post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted August 18, 2015 Share Posted August 18, 2015 Anybody know how I can change the title of this thread or is that not possible? Thanks no need to change it now, we all know what you meant in the subtitle https://www.hurrycane.com/?gclid=COOyruyjs8cCFYyRHwodiqoEnQ&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.