griteater Posted October 12, 2015 Author Share Posted October 12, 2015 Latest UK seasonal looks good... If temperatures end up below normal with a nino of this strength... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysc Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 If all we had was one event a year, and it was like jan 88, I would take it! The powder, temps in teens, long duration , on the ground for like 2 weeks, it could be 70 every other day of the winter! I will never see another event like that in my life in the Carolinas , but will remember it my whole life! Don't be so quick to right it off. I know we have to go a long time sometimes but sooner or later we land another one for the record books. I've seen a few of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Looks good. Do they just give you a composite? Or do they break it out by month as well? They just do 3 month intervals. It did a pretty good job last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 If temperatures end up below normal with a nino of this strength... You said it...be nice if it was right, the mountain/foothills better start buying a snow shovels or even blowers. Edit: Also meant to say it looks fairly close to the Euro seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 If temperatures end up below normal with a nino of this strength... Looking at this chart some more, that's hard to believe, almost up to 3C for average. It did fairly good last year with enso strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 12, 2015 Author Share Posted October 12, 2015 Looking at this chart some more, that's hard to believe, almost up to 3C for average. It did fairly good last year with enso strength. With us getting closer, you would think that it would be backing off some. Bottom line, this nino is probably going to be in a grouping with the strongest of all time....along with 97-98, 82-83, 1888-1889, 1877-1878 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 With us getting closer, you would think that it would be backing off some. Bottom line, this nino is probably going to be in a grouping with the strongest of all time....along with 97-98, 82-83, 1888-1889, 1877-1878 Jburns told me the winters of 1877-1878 and 1888-1889 were epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 If temperatures end up below normal with a nino of this strength... Global temps will climb...regional temps will all depend on location of the greatest Nino forcing. So far, so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Looking at this chart some more, that's hard to believe, almost up to 3C for average. It did fairly good last year with enso strength. I wish thet showed all ENSO regions. One strange observation, I've noticed the models with the strongest Nino's have been the colder models for winter: UKMET, NASA GEOS, CMC.1 & CMC.2 All of thosE models with the exception of UKMET, have Basinwide warming...all the way west of dateline. I'm wondering if that & continued +PDO are main reasons for cold eastern winter outputs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 UKMET keeps Cal DRY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 I wish thet showed all ENSO regions. One strange observation, I've noticed the models with the strongest Nino's have been the colder models for winter: UKMET, NASA GEOS, CMC.1 & CMC.2 All of thosE models with the exception of UKMET, have Basinwide warming...all the way west of dateline. I'm wondering if that & continued +PDO are main reasons for cold eastern winter outputs Keeping the +PDO is nice to see, lots of smart people are hell bent on that eroding by winter, we shall see. The UK has it basin wide? Or is it further west on other models? It does have 1.2 warmer in this run (Oct v/s Sept) but the warmest is centered at 135W give or take. Better image added below, showing DJF showing 1.2 cooling, good look IMO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted October 12, 2015 Author Share Posted October 12, 2015 I wish thet showed all ENSO regions. One strange observation, I've noticed the models with the strongest Nino's have been the colder models for winter: UKMET, NASA GEOS, CMC.1 & CMC.2 All of thosE models with the exception of UKMET, have Basinwide warming...all the way west of dateline. I'm wondering if that & continued +PDO are main reasons for cold eastern winter outputs In terms of plumes, they have 3, 3.4, and 4 - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Keeping the +PDO is nice to see, lots of smart people are hell bent on that eroding by winter, we shall see. The UK has it basin wide? Or is it further west on other models? It does have 1.2 warmer in this run (Oct v/s Sept) but the warmest is centered at 135W give or take. The "blob" will & is eroding, BUT the fail to understand PDO will fall but likely be positive through most of winter. The 500mb pattern that's developing has a super +PNA & a lot of ridging out west. If you check out Nino October's with a +PNA it has a colder winter for most of the east correlation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 In terms of plumes, they have 3, 3.4, and 4 - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/el-nino-la-nina Thanks! Interesting that it predicts westward shift if warmest anomalies after the new year. In fact per SST maps ENSO regions 1&2 plummet after new year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 3m3 minutes ago State College, PA Brazilian meteograms has alot of snow for Toronto this winter. Been consistent here, and in Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 It's October and we already broke out the Brazillian model! Going to be a long winter! I think we see our first " widespread wintry threat", the first two weeks of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 12, 2015 Share Posted October 12, 2015 It's October and we already broke out the Brazillian model! Going to be a long winter! I think we see our first " widespread wintry threat", the first two weeks of December I bet "threat" will be last week of November. Got to love those 10-15 day out snow storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Would you rather get one big storm with at least a foot of snow, or 3 to 4 storms with 3 to 4 inches of snow each? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Would you rather get one big storm with at least a foot of snow, or 3 to 4 storms with 3 to 4 inches of snow each? Give me the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Would you rather get one big storm with at least a foot of snow, or 3 to 4 storms with 3 to 4 inches of snow each? I'll take 4 storms of 3" each...... one of them every Monday in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Would you rather get one big storm with at least a foot of snow, or 3 to 4 storms with 3 to 4 inches of snow each? 3 to 4 3-4" storms. Half the fun is tracking. Although you won't hear me complain about another 2002 redux, early Jan 12" snow with torch thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CherokeeGA Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Would you rather get one big storm with at least a foot of snow, or 3 to 4 storms with 3 to 4 inches of snow each? Either. If we see any measurable snow I'll be happy. That said, a foot of snow, here where there's no equipment to handle it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 3 to 4 3-4" storms. Half the fun is tracking. Although you won't hear me complain about another 2002 redux, early Jan 12" snow with torch thereafter. Well said sir, 3/4 snow events per year works fine for me otherwise I would move our base to Castleton. Snow events up there are often days not leaving the house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Would you rather get one big storm with at least a foot of snow, or 3 to 4 storms with 3 to 4 inches of snow each? definitely a foot of snow because I haven't had more than 4 inches of snow in a single storm since 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eastatlwx Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 definitely a foot of snow because I haven't had more than 4 inches of snow in a single storm since 1993. dude are you serious? I have had over 4 inches several times, including 6 inches in like 2002 or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 definitely a foot of snow because I haven't had more than 4 inches of snow in a single storm since 1993. I concur. We've had many 3-4 inchers in the past but something of the magnitude of a foot down here is worthy of talk for generations. I'd probably die before it even happened if it were forecasted for my area again. Just doesn't happen down here. Honestly, in person, I'm not even sure I'd know what to do with myself if I witnessed such an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCummingWx93 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 dude are you serious? I have had over 4 inches several times, including 6 inches in like 2002 or something Obviously, different areas will always have different amounts. I don't think I've had over 6 inches in a storm since quite possibly as far back as the Blizzard of 93, while areas around me likely have had closer to 8, maybe even 10 since then. In January 2011 there was so much drifting that it was hard to get an accurate amount but if I've had more than 6 in a storm it was that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Give me 4, 12 inch snowstorms and I'll call it a good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 dude are you serious? I have had over 4 inches several times, including 6 inches in like 2002 or something I had 4 inches in 2002, 4 inches in 2010, 4 inches in 2011. I can't get over the 4 inch mark for some reason. There's been 6"+ snows south, east, north, and west of me but my area has been very unlucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 13, 2015 Share Posted October 13, 2015 Give me 4, 12 inch snowstorms and I'll call it a good winter.this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.