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May 2015 General disco


Powerball

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Very mild and sunny all day today. High of 77°. One more summery day and then back to cool weather. Saturday's forecast falling for mid 50s early with falling temps into the 40s! Cool weather will at least keep the mosquitoes and gnats at bay.

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The 30th anniversary of this outbreak coming up soon. Thought I'd post here since it includes the Eastern portion of Ohio with the EF5 long track tornado.

 

iUnBeYb.jpg

 

This year marks the 30th anniversary of May 31st 1985 tornado outbreak that affected parts of Ohio (OH), Pennsylvania (PA) and Western New York (WNY) producing 43 tornadoes.  This event was fueled by a very unstable atmosphere favorable for tornadic activity as storms formed along and ahead of a potent late spring cold front. Tornado activity across WNY was confined to Southern Chautauqua County with multiple reports of large hail and wind damage all across WNY with the frontal passage. A total of two tornadoes were produced as the cold front swept across WNY producing an F3 and F4 and were part of the worst outbreak in this area since 1944.

     The National Severe Storms Forecast Center in Kansas City, Missouri (now the Storm Prediction Center (SPC)) issued Tornado Watch #211 prior to the severe weather outbreak across the region. Later that evening, the first of the two tornadoes (F4) entered Chautauqua County. The tornado passed by to the south of the town of Clymer and then moved northeast before dissipating near Panama, NY. This tornado covered a total of 28 miles with most of the significant damage occurring towards the end of the path. The tornado had winds in excess of 200 mph at times as it traveled across the area. Along its path, this tornado averaged 250 yards wide and briefly expanded to a quarter mile wide as it moved over the rough terrain of Chautauqua County.  The second tornado (F3) formed near Busti, NY and moved northeast before dissipating near the town of Poland.

     Eye witness accounts of the tornado detailed several smaller vortices circling about the main funnel. There were multiple accounts noting an anticyclonic rotation (clockwise). Damage from the tornado was estimated at over 3 million dollars to structures, excluding the damages to vehicles, livestock, a church (which was reduced to rubble), several businesses and personal property. In addition, thousands of trees were destroyed. There were no deaths associated with this tornado outbreak in WNY but there were several injuries.

     Following the tornado several eyewitness reported some interesting accounts and stories:

  • Report of U.S Government Saving Bonds falling from the sky in Olean, NY (Cattaraugus County) with an Ohio address.

  • Papers from Albion, PA falling over Bemus Point on Chautauqua Lake.

  • Tree debris (leaves) falling out of the sky over Jamestown, NY.

              

     The National Weather Service (NWS) in Buffalo, NY used radar, spotter reports and upstream tornado history to issued timely warnings.  During the course of the evening hours, 7 additional warnings were issued across Buffalo’s area of responsibility. Numerous reports of large hail (up to 2 inches), high winds, down trees, and power lines were also reported. It was noted that at least 90% of those that were interviewed during the storm survey heard either the Watch or Warning issued by the NWS.

–One individual in the hard hit village of Busti stated: the warning may have saved her life and her children because they knew it was coming and took shelter in the interior room. Furthermore, she stated that the low injury and zero deaths might largely be due to the advanced warning!

 

http://www.weather.gov/buf/TornadoOutbreak_May311985

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Southern Lake Michigan buoy is 38 degrees. I don't know how that compares to average but it seems like it should be warmer lol

 

On Skilling's blog graphic this morning he noted that the Chicago shorline temp is 5 degrees cooler and the lake level is 11" higher than at the same time last year. I imagine that temp will drop further by tomorrow evening once those NE winds whip up the lake.

TSFEAT052915-979x1024.jpg

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On Skilling's blog graphic this morning he noted that the Chicago shorline temp is 5 degrees cooler and the lake level is 11" higher than at the same time last year. I imagine that temp will drop further by tomorrow evening once those NE winds whip up the lake.

 

 

Will probably end up with a class pneumonia front signature on radar tomorrow morning.

 

8am tomorrow.

 

temp25.gif

 

10am

 

temp27.gif

 

The winds are really going to mix up the surface waters. 

Right now water temperatures running close to the past 2 years.

 

avgtemps-m-5-yr.gif

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NW Ohio and NE Indiana may finally get a very rainy day. the 12km NAM shows 2.5" to 3.5" for Toledo-Fort Wayne for this upcoming storm. SREF max accumulation is about 4.4" for Toledo and Fort Wayne.

It's been rainy all week with these storms. Picked up 1.5" two days ago

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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NW Ohio and NE Indiana may finally get a very rainy day. the 12km NAM shows 2.5" to 3.5" for Toledo-Fort Wayne for this upcoming storm. SREF max accumulation is about 4.4" for Toledo and Fort Wayne.

 

I've caught 3.64" in Huntington and FWA has 3.16" for the month. I don't know what the NAM has been smoking, but I'd buy 1.5" total.

 

Meanwhile, IND has been pretty dry in the month of May, recording only 1.09" of rain. This would be good for their 8th driest May, except they will probably double their monthly total tomorrow.

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Pouring here...stuff firing right over the top of me...  been a warm humid day overall.  dry too.

 

Hopefully this front blows through quick tonite...

 

Saukville says 40Fs tomorrow afternoon for him..

 

Poor Cromartie. He hasn't moved to a warmer climate yet? Is he still growing cacti?

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Southern Lake Michigan buoy is 38 degrees. I don't know how that compares to average but it seems like it should be warmer lol

 

That's pretty crazy, I mean we haven't had any really torchy days here or Chicago (I think mid 80s is max in Chicago and low 80s here) but you still would think it'd be into the 40s.

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The Nearly Forgotten Snow Storm of May 27-29, 1947

Jeff Boyne, NWS La Crosse Climate Services Focal Point

Through the years, this late season snow storm has been purged from memories of many people in northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and western Wisconsin. Maybe it is that people do not want to think about snow in late May or that the snow quickly melted, but very few remember this storm. If it was not for this author stumbling upon a 9 inch snow amount in Viroqua, Wisconsin this reminder that snow storms can occur this late in the spring in the Upper Mississippi Valley may have never been written.

On the morning of May 27, 1947, a developing low pressure system was located over central Nevada. It was this low which would be responsible for the snow storm over the Central Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Upper Michigan from May 27th through May 29th. A strong arctic high pressure system was located over the Mackenzie Basin in northwest Canada. This high would provide the cold air needed for a winter storm to develop. A mixture of rain and snow developed over Colorado and Wyoming during the day on May 27th and changed to all snow during the night as the low deepened and moved slowly east through southern Colorado.

On the morning of the 28th, the high pressure center had moved rapidly south to southern Saskatchewan. This high pressure area brought unprecedented cold for late May to North Dakota. Temperatures fell to as low as 15 degrees at Eckman, which is located near the Canadian border. In addition, the mercury fell to 23 degrees at Bismarck which is the lowest ever recorded there after May 20th. Meanwhile, below freezing temperatures were found across Montana, Wyoming, northeastern Colorado, western Nebraska, northern Minnesota, and western South Dakota. The sub freezing temperatures caused a partial to total loss of fruits and tender plants. During the day, this cold air surged southward across eastern Nebraska, eastern South Dakota, Iowa, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Many cold maximum temperatures were established across the region for the day.

At the same time this was occurring, the area of low pressure was continuing to strengthen as it moved east through southern Kansas. From the evening of the 27th through the 28th, this low produced a 6-12" snow band from southeast Wyoming east across northern Nebraska into northwest Iowa. The heaviest snow in this band was found in Alliance and Harrison, Nebraska where 12" had fallen. The weight from the heavy wet snow caused considerable damage to power lines, telephone lines, telegraph lines, trees, and shrubs.

During the late afternoon and evening of May 28th, the surface low began to move northeast across northern Missouri, northwest Illinois, and southeast Wisconsin. The reason for this change in direction was due to a strong upper level disturbance that had dropped into the base of the upper level trough over Nebraska during the day. This upper level disturbance caused an amplification of the upper level ridge over the Ohio Valley and much of New England. As a result, temperatures in this region climbed into the 80s instead of the 50s and 60s which were seen the day before. However on the cold side of the system, temperatures remained in the 30s and 40s in the Upper Mississippi Valley. In addition to the cold temperatures, rain changed to snow across southern Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and across much of Wisconsin. This was the latest snow ever reported in a season in this area, with some places experiencing their biggest May snow storm on record.

From the late afternoon of the 28th into the early morning hours of the 29th, 7-10" of snow fell across Allamakee County in northeast Iowa, and Vernon, Crawford, southern Monroe, and Richland Counties in southwest Wisconsin. The heaviest snowfall amount was 10" in Gays Mills, WI. Meanwhile, a 7-9" band of snow fell across northern Adams, Waushara, Winnebago, Outagamie, and Waupaca Counties in central and east central Wisconsin. The weight of the heavy snow caused severe damage to power lines, telephone lines, bushes, and trees.

midwest2.gif

The following table, provides some snowfall totals for southeast Minnesota, northeast Iowa, and western Wisconsin.

Region
Location
County
Total Snow
Northeast Iowa Waukon Allamakee
7.5"
  Mason City Cerro Gordo
4.5"
  New Hampton 1E Chickasaw
4.0"
  Decorah Winneshiek
3.2"
  Mason City Airport Cerro Gordo
1.5"
  Osage Mitchell
1.5"
  Cresco 1NE Howard
1.0"
Southeast Minnesota Spring Grove Houston
2.6"
  Harmony Fillmore
1.0"
  Albert Lea Freeborn
0.1"
  Austin Mower
Trace
  Grand Meadow Mower
Trace
  Rochester Olmsted
Trace
  St Charles Olmsted
Trace
  Winona Winona
Trace
  Zumbrota Goodhue
Trace
Western Wisconsin Gays Mills Crawford
10.0"
  Viroqua Vernon
9.0"
  Hillsboro Vernon
6.6"
  Mather 7.5NE Juneau
5.0"
  Sparta Monroe
4.0"
  Tomah Monroe
4.0"
  La Crosse - Grand Dad Bluff La Crosse
2" to 3"
  West Salem La Crosse
2.8"
  Meadow Valley Juneau
2.0"
  Prairie du Chien Crawford
2.0"
  Richland Center Richland
1.5"
  Lancaster 0.5NE Grant
0.8"
  La Crosse Airport La Crosse
0.2"
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Poor Cromartie. He hasn't moved to a warmer climate yet? Is he still growing cacti?

Yup...he loves his tropicals.  He's something of a local celebrity with his giant palms growing along the shores of L Michigan. 

 

1.37 inches of rain this afternoon fell...

 

Snow in late May?  scary thought.  NWS La Crosse is mentioning frost for areas of central Wisconsin tomorrow nite..so anything is possible.

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